072
FXUS62 KTBW 301900
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The summer-like weather tease will continue for the most of this
week as just enough moisture, precipitable water between 1.3 and 1.5
inches, combines with the sea breezes to cause afternoon and evening
convection. However, like our summer convection the location of the
highest rain chances will depend on the low level flow. For the rest
of today and again on Wednesday the interior and southwest Florida
will be favored, but a shower will be possible anywhere away from
the coast as the sea breeze moves inland. For Thursday and Friday
the easterly flow will increase some with best chances, albeit
not much more than 30 percent, across the western half of the
Florida peninsula. By the weekend some shortwave energy will be
moving across the southeast states and we`ll continue to have
enough moisture combined with this energy and the sea breezes to
cause more isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection.
Otherwise, we`ll see near to slightly above normal temperatures
through the period with dew points remaining mostly in the 60s
which is pretty typical for the beginning of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Some afternoon and evening showers and possibly a thundestorm could
affect KLAL, KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW, with local MVFR/IFR conditions
possible, then activity diminishes by 06Z. Winds will shift to
westerly at around 10 knots this afternoon then diminish and become
light and variable later this evening into Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure will remain across the waters with winds and seas
below headline criteria. The overall flow will be rather light and
variable over the next couple of days with a shift to onshore and
speeds increasing to around 10 knots with the sea breeze each
afternoon. By late in the week a more east to southeast flow will
setup, but we`ll still see a shift to onshore with the sea breeze
each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Relative humidity values will drop to near critical levels over
inland areas for the next several afternoons, but no Red Flag
conditions are expected as winds and ERCs remain below thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  87  71  89 /   0  10   0  20
FMY  69  88  70  89 /  10  20  20  20
GIF  67  90  69  91 /  20  30  20  30
SRQ  68  87  69  89 /   0  10   0  20
BKV  61  89  63  91 /   0  10   0  20
SPG  73  86  74  87 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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