Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
980 FXUS65 KTFX 170848 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 248 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A gusty day is in store for the region as a Pacific cold front progresses eastward this morning and early afternoon. Cooler temperatures will be the theme this weekend into next week, with opportunities for precipitation most days. && .DISCUSSION... Through Tonight... Zonal flow aloft largely persists through today, though a wave pivoting through a larger scale trough will, with the help of a developing surface low across southern SK, propel a Pacific cold front through the Northern Rockies this morning into early afternoon. Temperatures this morning will be on the mild side, but fail to rise too much before the Pacific front arrives, allowing temperatures to stagnate or fall slightly through the afternoon. Forecast soundings support wind gusts in the 40-55 mph range today, with only isolated instances of stronger gusts approaching 60 mph away from the Rocky Mountain Front (Where the chances are moderate today). Given a lack of high confidence for more than a few isolated synoptically driven wind gusts 50 kts or greater, I have opted to forego any High Wind Warnings at this time. A complicating factor will be any showers that form where winds aloft are on the stronger side. Given respectable inverted-V soundings, decaying showers will be able to produce a bit more momentum transfer to the surface compared to mixing alone. Confidence in a timing or location of this is quite low, which will necessitate monitoring of trends through the day today. Winds will slowly diminish heading into tonight. Aside from winds, zonal flow aloft will also bring snow to the high terrain of the Rocky Mountain Front. Although impacts don`t look to occur at or below pass level, those recreating should be aware of forecast conditions. This weekend... Large scale upper troughing will remain in place across SW Canada and the far northern portions of the NW CONUS this weekend, resulting in largely zonal flow aloft, with shortwaves pivoting across the region at times. The end result is for unsettled conditions remaining. Temperatures will be on the cooler side, with opportunities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Sunday looks to be the day more favored for showers and thunderstorms, as a robust shortwave pivots through the broad troughing. Confidence in timing is not yet high, but the chance for a tenth of an inch of precipitation Sunday into Sunday night is largely greater than 50% across the region. Next Week... Ensembles favor a continuation of unsettled conditions heading into next week as large scale troughing remains in place across much of the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies. Although confidence is high that unsettled conditions will remain, specifics with respect to timing and magnitude of any precipitation is murky at best at this point. -AM && .AVIATION... 18/06Z TAF Period Note: The NWS Great Falls Office manages the following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, KEKS and KWYS. All airfields begin this TAF period in VFR conditions. Beginning at, 17/19Z, KCTB, KHVR and KLWT fall into predominant MVFR conditions due to light rain showers and low ceiling (KCTB). The TAFs for all of our airfields include PROB30 groups that bring each airfield into MVFR conditions in rain or rain/snow (KLWT) and, in some cases, with low ceiling. These PROB30 groups begin as early as 17/15Z. Mountain obscuration is forecast. Generally, widespread strong gusty westerly winds are forecast throughout this period. Mountain wave is forecast. Areas of virga, and all of the associated hazards to aviation flight ops, should be expected. Some isolated thunderstorm activity is forecast to occur across portions of north central, central and southwest Montana, Friday afternoon/evening. As of this time, thunderstorm is not forecast to occur within the ten mile aerodrome of our airfields. - Fogleman Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 39 64 40 / 30 30 0 20 CTB 54 35 59 34 / 60 40 20 10 HLN 62 38 67 41 / 20 10 0 20 BZN 65 30 66 39 / 40 10 0 20 WYS 61 25 58 35 / 20 10 0 10 DLN 62 29 66 37 / 10 0 0 10 HVR 62 38 64 38 / 40 90 10 10 LWT 60 36 60 38 / 50 20 0 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls