Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 171944
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions this afternoon and Monday
afternoon.
- Cool temperatures through Monday before a brief warm-up on Tuesday.
- Dry weather continues until late week system increases rain
chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a strong, north
to south oriented upper level jet over the central US, shortwave
energy over the southern Plains kicking off storms, and a large Rex
block over the western US. Over Kansas, persistent CAA has kept
temperatures from warming much this afternoon and should only top
out in the low to mid 50s area-wide. Mid-teen dewpoints in central
Nebraska will slowly push into the area this afternoon, creating
brief periods of elevated fire danger across the area, so please use
caution if you area conducting an outdoor burn. Overnight tonight,
winds will decrease as we get closer to midnight with a surface
ridge building into the area. Clear skies and light winds around
sunrise Monday will drop temperatures into the low 20s and upper
teens, creating a widespread hard freeze for any vegetation that has
started to grow early over the past month. This will set the stage
for another chilly day Monday as surface ridging and a north wind
keep temperatures in the upper 40s once again.

By Monday into Tuesday morning, the ridge axis will move east of the
area and return winds to the south/southwest. Clear skies, warm
850mb air and mixed BLs Tuesday afternoon will create a very nice
afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and 70s.
Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected through the remainder
of the week, topping out in the 60s area-wide.

The next chance for rain will move into the area Wednesday into
Thursday as the Rex block begins to break down over the west coast.
During this time, a deamplifying upper low moving across the
southern Plains could increase rain chances (20-30%) in southern
Kansas. Not expecting a washout for most across northeast Kansas as
the main QPF axis should stay south of the area. Small chances for
rain will persist into the weekend before long range guidance is
hinting at a strong digging trough exiting out of the western US,
bringing higher chances (30-60%) for rain Saturday through early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR TAFs will persist through the period at all terminals. Gusty
north winds will be the main aviation hazard with gusts between
25-30 mph this afternoon. CAMs have not done that well with the
scattered Cu deck that is advecting in from the north, but
should see scattered decks throughout the afternoon, perhaps an
occasional broken ceiling. The BL should decouple a few hours
after sunset as surface ridging builds into the area, decreasing
winds below 10 knots and clearing out skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Dewpoints have been slow to advect into the area this afternoon
and have kept RH values close to 30%, higher than previously
forecast. Winds gusting upwards to 30 mph out of the north
paired with the dry air will still create High fire danger
across the area this afternoon. Winds will decrease below 10 mph
with RH values increasing above 40% a few hours after sunset
this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer
FIRE WEATHER...Griesemer


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