Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 091729
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1129 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Surface high pressure was located from eastern Nebraska south to
central Texas. Return flow on the back side of the high was
occurring across the Western High Plains at 09Z. Stratus clouds were
continuing to move northward in the warm air/moisture advection
regime. As the high pressure moves off to the east southerly winds
will develop from west to east across the CWA today. Clouds will
offset some of the warming today given the low sun angle with highs
climbing into the upper 20s. Tonight the west northwest flow will
continue across the Central Plains as heights rise. Clouds are
expected to increase along the Nebraska border tonight after
midnight ahead of a weak mid level wave and moisture
advection/isentropic lift. Lows tonight will drop off into the mid
to upper teens. Winds light south to southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Upper flow remains rather fast and quasi-zonal through the middle of
next week for the region. Surface pressures fall late Friday night
into Saturday night in the lee of the Rockies with warm and moist
southerly low-level flow resulting. High cloud looks to increase
through the day Saturday with some lower cloud entering late. Should
still see breezy south winds mix into the warming temps aloft for
highs much closer to normal, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Saturday
night into Sunday evening bring some potential for light
precipitation as a weak upper wave passes through the region. Models
are in good agreement with the mid levels struggling to saturate and
have kept measurable chances low. Could see the most "wetness" come
via drizzle as a low level jet around 50kt develops Saturday night
and stratus surges north-northeast into eastern Kansas. With these
strong south winds and high and low cloud trends, have most low
temperatures occurring early Saturday night and rising temps after
midnight, keeping any drizzle in liquid form. The bulk of the
measurable precip in this event was seen on the 0Z NAM with a much
slower wave movement, but the 06Z run has come more in line with the
GFS and ECMWF with much less QPF. A modified Canadian airmass
briefly builds in late Sunday into early Monday with little change
in highs Sunday and Monday.

An upper low sinks south of to the Arctic over the weekend and
before turning east over the southern provinces during the work
week. Another quite cold airmass will follow behind an initial
shortwave rotating around this low and enter the area Monday night
into Tuesday, with a second wave potentially reaching the Central
Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. Much remains uncertain with
this wave in timing, strength, and moisture profiles, but small
precip chances do seem in order.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with south or
southeast winds less than 10 kts. There is a small chance for MVFR
cigs mainly at MHK between 08-14Z but will most likely be VFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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