Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KTOP 230447
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

Water vapor at 20Z showing upper trough still shifting eastward
across WY. As the trough begins to encounter the downstream ridging
with time tonight and especially Tuesday...it will turn more to
the northeast. As a result...the winds in the low and mid levels
will be slow to veer and advect moisture (instability) eastward into
the very dry airmass currently in place. At the same time...upper
level forcing in the county warning area will be stronger in the
northwest 1/3 of the cwa in closer proximity to the lifting upper
trough. Therefore will maintain the highest pops (likely) and precip
amounts to the northwest 1/3 of the cwa through Tuesday where the
more optimal combination of moisture and lift will reside.
Instability will remain fairly weak through the period...so have
opted to keep showers/slight chance thunder wording for now. In
fact...the cwa south and east of I-35  should remain dry through the
day. The clouds will affect both lows tonight and highs for Tuesday.
Following milder lows tonight in the 50s...warmest north central
with more clouds...highs on Tuesday should range from near 70 along
the Nebraska border to the middle 70s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

Upper trough will move across the Central Plains Tuesday night and
slowly moves through the eastern Kansas and shears out through
Wednesday night. This will bring a period of showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area from Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Instability is modest toward central Kansas
generally around 500-600 J/kg with shear around 25 kts. Will
continue to mention mainly showers with isolated thunderstorms
through the early Thursday morning. Will also focus higher pops out
west to start with then shift eastward as dry air is overcome in the
eastern counties.

Ridge builds in aloft over the Plains as an upper trough moves into
the western states. The ridge remains in place through the end of
the period. Continued dry forecast from Thursday through Monday.
Temperatures will be near normal or slightly above through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR conditions expected as mid and high clouds gradually increase
through the forecast period. 00Z KTOP and forecast soundings
depict a decent amount of low level dry air to overcome as the
next system approaches. Some high resolution guidance shows
scattered showers in vcnty at KMHK from 15Z onward with less
certainty as showers weaken eastward towards KTOP/KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.