Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 290455
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1155 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Current WV and VIS imagery show and upper low digging into the
Southern Rockies over New Mexico.  A short wave trough is rotating
around this low developing a surface low over the TX panhandle.  As
this low pulls out of the region it will undergo further
cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains into the Central Plains
overnight tonight.

As a result of this system developing and low level clouds in place
today, highs this afternoon could only reach into the mid 50s. With
cloud cover only increasing, expect that temps only dip into the low
to mid 40s over the area.  As broad scale lift and the warm front
approach from the south, expect showers and rain to lift into the
area from the southwest.  The main threats with this system will
come as coverage and intensity of rainfall likely pick up after
midnight and reach peak intensity into the rush hour time frame on
Wednesday especially for areas along and south of I-70 as isentropic
lift increases. From here, the upper low will slowly pin-wheel
through the area into the Mid and Southern MS Valley regions with
rain wrapping around behind the low itself creating a band of low to
mid level frontogenetical response in the deformation zone.
Temperature profiles are supporting only rain though so not
concerned with mixed precipitation types.  Rainfall amounts
generally through Thursday morning could range from 1-2 inches with
locally heavier amounts possible.  Flood concerns will likely
increase over some smaller river and creek basins, but due to the
precip event being spread out over a longer period of time, most
concerns should be limited. There will be some small potential for
some elevated storms to also develop over night tonight and again
for a period on Wednesday afternoon as shear and instability
increase.  So a few rounds of embedded thunder are possible along
with maybe some small hail. But, overall strong storm potential may
stay limited as better quality overall moisture and the surface low
feature stay just southeast of the forecast area.

With the area remaining largely in the cool sector, highs on
Wednesday look to only reach into the 40 north of I-70 with some
upper 50s and possibly low 60s in very southern portions of the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The axis of the upper low meanders over northeast Kansas by Thursday
morning. Residual lift on the backside of the low develops scattered
showers over much of the CWA through early afternoon, gradually
coming to an end by the evening. Weak ridging aloft builds in
temporarily on Friday between systems with the best chance for
seeing partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures hover
below normal values in the middle 50s before the area warms back to
the 60s Saturday and Sunday, as stronger, easterly winds advect
warmer air westward. Great uncertainty still exists on the weekend
system dependent on cloud thickness, subsequent temps and
precipitation with the next incoming upper trough from the southwest
CONUS. Model guidance has had a difficult time resolving the timing
and track of this system, with multiple vorticity maxima rotating
through. Overall trend shows the initial wave developing the first
round of rainfall over northeast Kansas on Saturday, inserting
highest pops on Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday have the upper
wave being ejected east by another shortwave trough, focusing much
of the moisture further south into Oklahoma. Still could see rain
showers south of Interstate 70 in east central KS, however qpf
amounts are generally light through Monday. Upper pattern remains
active through mid next week with both the GFS and ECMWF advertising
another upper low sweeping over the northern plains Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

IFR ceilings along with periods of rain will move across the
terminals after 6Z. visibilities may be reduced through the
morning hours into the early afternoon hours down to 1 to 2 miles
in rain. there may be an isolated thunderstorm at the terminals,
especially this afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Gargan



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