Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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119
FXUS63 KTOP 291144
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
644 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Will be starting this forecast with persistence in mind with only
small changes in conditions from Sunday. Modest southwest flow
persists aloft with forecast 500-700mb winds still in the 10-15kt
range and precipitable water levels around 1.75". Slightly weaker
lapse rates aloft are suggested however from somewhat cooler temps
around 850mb. This could contribute to a more active afternoon in
terms of precip coverage with even less CIN expected though
instability should be somewhat weaker. The weak shear will should
again keep severe storms limited to the pulse variety with slow
storm motions bringing an heavy rain threat to any persistent
storms. Have kept pops in the chance range peaking in the late
afternoon but almost the entire area has a mentionable chance
throughout this forecast given the deep moisture. Will also need to
monitor ground fog potential in the weak winds and still moist soil
conditions but at least periodic cloud should prevent widespread
visibility problems. Highs in the mid and upper 80s should be the
rule with lows again around 68.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Weak flow aloft and ample moisture will continue across the area
Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitable water values remain in the 1.5
to 2 inch range across northeast Kansas. Vorticity maximum will be
near the area Tuesday into Wednesday and is forecast to weaken
through the day on Wednesday across northeast Kansas. Diurnal
showers and thunderstorms will move little with weak flow
resulting in locally heavy rainfall. Models show moderate moisture
transport into eastern Kansas Tuesday and Tuesday night before
weakening on Wednesday which will sustain convection through the
overnight hours. An upper level ridge build across the Plains
Wednesday night with high pressure at the surface building in from
the north by Thursday morning. Expect a dry period for Thursday
and Friday. Southwest flow develops across the Central Plains next
weekend as an upper level trough deepens across the western CONUS.
Embedded waves will eject northeastward across the area along with
increasing southerly flow and moisture transport. This will bring
a chance for thunderstorms back into the forecast from late Friday
night through the weekend. Highs will be in the 80s with lows
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Will keep VCTS mention during main period of concern but
confidence in TS impacting all sites is low. Impacts would likely
be brief in reduced visibilities if they do enter the terminals.
Will need to continue to watch for BR/FG development at the end of
the forecast.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65



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