Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 092334
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
534 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Overall, northeast Kansas remains in between an amplified ridge over
the western CONUS and a large upper-level trough over the east.  At
the surface, northwest flow persists over the area with clouds
streaming southward over central Kansas.  Even with the clear skies
today, highs have only peaked into the low 30s and are expected to
dip back into the 20s shortly after sunrise.  With deep boundary
layer mixing throughout the morning, dewpoints plummeted into the
single digits and winds have stayed gusty.  Very high fire danger
was seen this afternoon mainly confined to east central Kansas.  As
high pressure begins to move south towards northeast Kansas this
afternoon, the pressure gradient should begin to relax late this
afternoon into the evening bringing gusts to an end. Mid-level
clouds will move east overnight keeping temperatures near central
Kansas in the low 20s while locations without cloud cover for most
the evening will cool into the upper teens.  For tomorrow, surface
winds finally shift from the south-southwest aiding in warmer
daytime temperatures for most the area.  Highs will range from the
mid 50s near central Kansas to low 40s in very northeast Kansas.
With dewpoints in the low 30s tomorrow and light winds, fire danger
is not expected to be a concern.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Northwest flow continues to dominate the bulk of this
forecast...with deep moisture lacking for nearly the entire
forecast. Temperatures continue to be the main forecast challenge as
the bulk of the additional surface anticyclones remain to the north
and east of the area, creating opportunities for large day-to-day
changes as west to southwest winds return between these systems.
High pressure looks to impinge on the area Wednesday night and late
Friday with temps taking a sharp fall Thursday and Saturday, with
return flow bringing warmer air back Friday. Will need to watch for
elevated fire weather potential in this regime, but at this point
the higher winds and more concerning mixing potential doesn`t look
to match up with periods of lower RH.

The western ridge is progged to break down somewhat as a stronger
wave enters the Pacific Northwest Friday night and dives southeast
through the region Saturday night into Sunday. The wave remains in a
positive tilt and deep moisture is still lacking, but forcing and
marginal moisture return could be enough for some precip to result.
Precipitation type is much uncertain with the dry mid levels keeping
ice in the cloud a challenge along with just where low-mid
tropospheric temps will be in any precip -- with a melting layer
aloft very possible. Will continue a broad brush-type approach with
many questions not only in what but if precip will fall. Warm and
dry conditions come early next week as pattern shifts to a broach
central CONUS ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds vary
directionally as a sfc high then sfc low pass over the state.
North winds diminish then become southerly then southwesterly with
time.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67


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