Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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156
FXUS63 KTOP 232028
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Latest water vapor satellite loop had a wave exiting northeast
Kansas with another more subtle wave over northeast Oklahoma. VWP
profiles from radar show a 45 to 50 kt mid level jet from southwest
Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. A surface trough/dry line was
located across western Kansas this afternoon. Dew points have
increased into the lower 70s across northeast Kansas this afternoon.
Confidence is low to moderate with respect to convective development
across the area. Hi resolution models as well as the NAM and GFS
offer differing scenarios this evening and tonight. The upper low
over southern Canada will gradually move east tonight and Wednesday.
This will nudge the cold front southward through the day on
Wednesday into north central and northeast Kansas. Tonight could see
isolated to scattered storms. Shear is around 25 kts and MLCAPE
averages around 3000 J/kg. If storms do develop they will have the
potential to produce strong wind gusts and hail. Higher confidence
for storms on Wednesday along the front and ejecting wave from the
southwest. Atmosphere will be quite moist with precipitable water
values approaching two inches. By afternoon the shear increases to
around 30 kts with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along with steepening
mid level lapse rates will yield an environment for severe storms.
Convergence along the front along with ascent from the approaching
wave should get storms going along the front in the afternoon.
Environment will be favorable for supercells with line segments
developing along the front. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main hazards. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s northwest to
the lower 90s in east central.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

By Thursday at 00Z, the surface front should be hung up over the
area stretching from southwest to northeast across the entire state
of Kansas.  Afternoon convection may be ongoing at this point, and
with 30kt 0-6km shear and over 1000 J/kg CAPE still available,
severe storms are not out of the question.  Steep mid level lapse
rates indicate the main threat will be strong winds and hail with
storms mainly focused near the frontal boundary.  PWATS look to be
near or over two inches for a majority of northeast Kansas through
the night, and with the front hung up, rain looks to be ongoing in
the overnight hours creating a concern for heavy rain and localized
flooding.  By Thursday afternoon, the front looks to push southeast
of the area; however a upper wave moving over the southwest flow
over Kansas makes it way providing at least some chance for more
storms, mainly across central and east central Kansas where the
heaviest rain should be focused.

By Friday afternoon a mid level high pressure will be over the
southeast CONUS while a trough moves in over the northwest.  This
trough will move east and dig into the northern plains by Saturday
afternoon bringing more chances for storms through Sunday.
Precipitation chances continue until Tuesday with southerly flow
providing moisture transport to the area along with some upper
disturbances.

Temperatures start cooler for Thursday and Friday as the front moves
through before beginning to warm up again into the weekend.  Overall
highs will be in the 80s, and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Challenging TAF period ahead. Removed mention of VCTS at all
terminals due to very low confidence in large scale forcing
across the area. Current thunderstorms along the KS/OK border are
expected to remain southeast of the terminals this afternoon. Any
thunderstorm development this evening and overnight is expected to
stay north and west of the area along a cold front. Winds will
remain gusty near 25-30 knots this afternoon before diminishing to
near 10 knots overnight.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg



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