Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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838
FXUS63 KTOP 091127
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

A strong north northwest flow pattern continues across the Great
Plains today with neutral to slightly cold advection through the day
today in the local area, and a tight west-to-east temperature
gradient as well. Surface winds will remain gusty today, up to 35
mph. Strongest winds are expected around noon and will be from the
north northwest with a gradual decrease through the afternoon. At
the same time, expect strong boundary layer mixing into a drier
airmass at the top of the boundary layer which will result in low
dewpoints especially over eastern Kansas. Have forecast on the low
end of model guidance, which puts MinRH in the 28-32 percent
category for areas east of a Council Grove to Holton line. There is
some potential to go a bit lower yet, but with the cold temperatures
it would be very hard to fall below 20 percent. Regardless, will
have another day of very high fire danger with the wind and reduced
RH combo. Even with a good amount of sunshine, it will be hard to
warm much and have highs in the 30s for most of the area.
Temperatures should cool quickly this evening as winds weaken and
surface high pressure builds into the area. However, clouds will
also build in from NW to SE overnight so could see late evening lows
in north central KS with more of a morning low in far eastern KS. If
clouds are quicker or slower to build in, the resultant temperatures
will be warmer or colder than currently forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Northwest flow aloft continues through late week with several weak
shortwaves tracking over the northern US. Each shortwave will bring
a chance for light snow and reinforce the cold air over the Great
Lakes region. Both the snow and arctic airmass should stay east of
the forecast area, but the gradient is still close enough for some
uncertainty. Over the weekend an upper ridge builds over the plains
ahead of the next wave. This shortwave is forecasted to move over
the northern Rockies and dig across the central plains Sunday and
Monday. There is still model disagreement with the speed of the
wave. Also, the ECMWF is forecasting higher amounts across eastern
KS as compared to the GFS. The ECMWF is much deeper and colder,
which explains the higher amounts. For now have kept chances for
rain and or snow Sunday afternoon/evening and snow Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
gusty during the day today but tapering off after sunset and
possibly turning out of the south by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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