Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 160544
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1244 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant late winter / early spring weather persists through much
  of the forecast period.

- A cold front pushes through the area overnight Saturday into
  Sunday bringing low temperatures to the middle 20s for Monday
  morning. Expect a hard freeze for this period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Currently, the upper air pattern hasn`t exhibited significant
changes over the past 24 hrs. Subtropical moisture continues to
stream into the southern Plains and southeastern CONUS where the
primary severe weather threat remains for today in association with
a cold front which pushed through the area yesterday. The northern
flow of the Westerlies remain over Canada along the northern border
through the Great Lakes region. Over the western 1/3 of the CONUS a
deep upper low continues to spin cutoff from the main Westerlies. An
established Omega type blocking pattern is setup from British
Colombia with axis between HI and the SoCal/Baja coast.

Much of the forecast period will see quiet and mostly pleasant
conditions for several days until the next potential rain and storm
chances come into the latter part of next week. Until then the
primary feature of note appears to be that of a modified cold front
dropping down from central Canada in association of a passing
Alberta Clipper type system moving through the Great Lakes region
into the northeastern CONUS Saturday night into Sunday time frame.
Therefore, Sunday through Tuesday mornings could see frost/freeze
conditions setup with Monday being the coldest morning. Temperatures
on Monday in the middle 20s (perhaps colder if clear skies and light
or calm winds can be maintained into Monday morning). Confidence in
below freezing is high with all percentiles below or well below
freezing. While there is spread amongst the solutions on the very
coldest of temperatures, it appears middle 20s is most reasonable
with potential for a slightly northerly breeze still set up across
the area helping to slightly mix the BL into the overnight.

Return flow gradually develops as the western blocking pattern
breaks down allowing for the cutoff low pressure system to advance
east and transition to more of a open wave. The better theta-e
advection and thus moisture transport appears to be south of the
area. There remains a large degree of spread amongst the solutions
that would limit the northern extend of moisture advection into the
area. This suggests that the most impactful weather may remain south
of the area. Nonetheless, still lower certainty in the long range
forecast. As a result, maintaining a 30-45% chance for rain and
storms in the long range...still no meaningful amount of snow
in the current forecast!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail Saturday, with sfc winds being the main
focus of the TAFs. West winds increase after sunrise to 10-15
kts, and veer throughout the day as a frontal boundary moves
through the area. West-northwest winds gust 20-25 kts during the
afternoon, then shift to the north. Wind speeds subside after
sunset.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Teefey


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