Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 201137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Secondary cold front currently moving through the area has some
isolated shower activity which may linger a few more hours. The
winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and begin to
increase especially after sunrise. Expect wind speeds around 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Drier and cooler air will continue
to filter into the area today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Clouds should clear out later this morning and early afternoon, and
winds will gradually diminish. High pressure will build into the
region behind the front and track over central KS tonight. This will
allow winds to go calm and keep skies clear. Soundings show that
winds just above the inversion may allow some mixing and prevent
fog. Some low lying locations could decouple enough for ground fog
especially given the recent widespread rainfall. Low temperatures
will dip into the mid to lower 50s tonight as the high pressure
tracks through the area. Tomorrow return flow will cause slightly
warmer highs in the lower to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Sunday remains on the cool side with highs in the lower 80s as
upper trof continues to move into the northeast and becomes more
zonal over the Central Plains through the day. Could have some
lingering fog early in the morning, although appears limited given
amount of wind and dry air over the boundary layer. Mostly clear
skies on Sunday night along with lighter winds bring lows down
into the upper 50s to low 60s. As winds swing back around from the
south on Monday highs rise a bit into the middle 80s with
increasing southerly winds through the day. Lows Monday night are
a bit warmer in the upper 60s.

Rain chances start to return on Tuesday as series of shortwaves
moves out of the southwest and into the Plains over the surface
front also forecast to be in the area. Highs fall from the middle
80s Tuesday back down into the upper 70s to low 80s as rain
chances increase Wednesday into Thursday. Larger scale upper trof
moving across the northern plains sends reinforcing shot of cooler
air southward into the Central Plains, then leaves the forecast
area on the return flow of the upper high Friday. Rain chances
also shift southward with highs running near 80F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

IFR/MVFR ceilings should last the next fews hours at TOP/FOE.
Ceilings should gradually lift and scatter out through early
afternoon. Wind gusts will increase shortly after sunrise then
gradually diminish through the afternoon. Calm and clear
conditions tonight may favor ground fog during the early morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Sanders



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