Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 252003
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FOR MORE OF THE SAME
WEATHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND SLOWLY SHIFTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COOL IN THE 50S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RECEDE EAST, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTORMS BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AS A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  LIKELY CHANCES
FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM EAST TO WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS STAY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AS FOR HIGHS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AID A WARMER
THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, DECREASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 80S
ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ...

BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE DEEP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA, WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. HOWEVER, AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY, EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO USHER WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TOWARD THE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  MODELS SHOW
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY AND SKIMMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY.  THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE BEING MORE
POSITIVELY-TILTED. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE AND CONDITIONS DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING SHALLOW FOG
MAINLY AT TOP BUT MORE LIKELY TO BE P6SM SKC.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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