188
FXUS63 KTOP 291749
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and seasonal weather today.

- Potential for some severe thunderstorms from Tuesday through
  Thursday as well as locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Early this morning a mid level trough was over the northern Plains
into the southern Rockies. The surface front had moved off to the
southeast of the area into Missouri and Oklahoma and high pressure
was over western Kansas early this morning.

The light to calm winds int he river valleys early this morning may
lead to some fog formation and have kept in the forecast. Otherwise
mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures warming into
the 70s with warmest readings in the upper 70s in central Kansas. By
late afternoon an inverted surface trough sets up across central
into northeast Kansas. CAMS have developed some isolated showers
from late afternoon into early this evening near the surface trough
with the RAP showing inverted V type soundings. With dry air in the
lower levels not expecting much in the way of precipitation from any
of the showers or isolated storms, but gusty winds will accompany
any of the showers.

Focus then turns to Tuesdays severe weather potential as a mid level
trough moves into the northern Plains and taking on a negative tilt
as it moves eastward. An associated front will move southeast into
north central Kansas Tuesday afternoon, with convection developing
along the front and moving southeast across the northeast Kansas
during the evening hours. Models show ample moisture return ahead of
the front with dewpoint temps in the 50s to lower 60s. There will
also be good moisture transport to support some locally heavy
rainfall as well. Given forecast shear and instability support mainly
damaging winds and large hail, given low level shear on forecast
hodographs tornadoes will also be possible, especially near the
Nebraska border. The front moves southward into southern Kansas
Tuesday night then returns northward on Wednesday as a warm front. A
surface low is forecast over southeast Colorado on Wednesday with
the warm front in northern Kansas or southern Nebraska in the
afternoon. A dryline sets up across southwest Kansas in the
afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to develop in the warm
sector as well as near the warm front. Forecast soundings and
hodographs support all modes of severe weather. In addition moisture
transport will increase across central and eastern Kansas will be
supportive of efficient rainfall producing storms which may lead to
additional flooding across the area.

Drier air moves in behind the system for Friday bringing a reprieve
from the wet weather. Variance amongst the models continues through
the weekend, thus keeping probabilities of precipitation low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions prevail. Light southwest winds through the day
become southerly overnight. Winds become gusty by 14-15z Tuesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Flanagan