Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 151718
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

As of 08Z an upper level ridging across the Rockies to inch its axis
towards the central and northern Plains. Upper trough across the
northeastern CONUS continues to eject northeast. At the surface,
high pressure center across western IL/eastern IA continues to sink
southward within the Mississippi Valley. Stalled boundary continues
to bisect Oklahoma from north to south.

Light winds and Td depressions approaching 0 degrees should yield
some patchy fog across much of the area through 13Z. Otherwise, for
the rest of today, mostly sunny skies are expected with highs
topping out near 90 degrees area wide. A stout EML at H700 should
inhibit any thunderstorm development this afternoon. Although a cu
field is possible this afternoon given the steep low level lapse
rates. As the surface high pressure approaches the area Sunday
morning, dry air advection will help decrease low temperatures
and dew points back into the 60s Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Main question into the early portions of next week is
precipitation chances. Models are similar though not in great
agreement with weak upper low moving ENE out of eastern Colorado
into western portions of Nebraska Sunday night and on into
northern Iowa Monday night. The NAM is the faster and farther
south outlier while the ECMWF is slower and weaker. At least weak
forcing looks to pass by western and northern areas Monday
afternoon and night and will have small PoPs there. Southerly
winds will slowly increase near the surface for minor warm air
advection and highs increasing into the mid 90s for most locations
by Monday.

Heat is the main concern for the remainder of the week with upper
ridge continuing to build aloft and 850mb temps pushing well
into the 20s Celsius. Will continue the warming trend through at
least Thursday with highs in the mid 90s to around 100. Dewpoint
values look to hold in the mid 60s to lower 70s with low level
flow veered more than last week, and this may keep heat indices
from being too far above air temps. Will still see the potential
for Advisory to near Warning levels given the longevity of the
heat. Models continue to trend for less opportunity for any
boundary to reach this far south under the ridge, with best
potential still coming late in the forecast for small PoPs in the
north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Low VFR cumulus will persist through the afternoon before decaying
around sunset. Expect continued VFR conditions into tomorrow with
light easterly winds veering to the south overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Skow



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