Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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588 FXUS63 KTOP 010537 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active weather pattern continues Wednesday into Thursday and again this weekend with persistent chances for thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Cancelled the Tornado Watch and Flood Watch. The threat for severe weather and flooding has ended for tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Another afternoon and evening of severe weather is shaping up once again across the central Plains as a mid-level wave approaches from the west and has begun to eject into Nebraska as noted on water vapor imagery. Surface analysis across Kansas shows a deep surface trough and low over central Kansas with a cold front and dry line extending south into southwestern Kansas. Strong warm sector WAA has pushed 60 degree dewpoints as far north was eastern Nebraska with mid-60 degree dewpoints beginning to make their way into east- central Kansas. With ample afternoon warming, temperatures across the area have reached the low to mid 80s and will be expected to warm a few degrees further over the next several hours. Over the next few hours, residual BL capping that is noted in the TOP 18z sounding will slowly erode as the cold front approaches from the west. MLCAPE values ranging from 2500-3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of 35-50 knots (higher values in northeastern Kansas and lower values in central Kansas), 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and increasing low-level wind shear will be present ahead of the boundary late this afternoon and evening, setting the stage for severe storms in eastern Kansas. CAMs over the past 6 hours have been fairly consistent in developing convection between the 21-23z timeframe along the boundary draping from Seneca to Council Grove. Convection should quickly intensify from there, zipping down the frontal boundary into southeastern Kansas. Given the environment, very large hail (up to 2+ inches), damaging winds (>70 mph) and a few tornadoes will be possible with the strongest and most organized supercells. Shear vector orientation in relation to the surface boundary should keep convection isolated for several hours before the boundary begins to move more southeast this evening promoting the congealing of storms. Another thing that will need to be watched is how the LLJ will impact ongoing convection into the evening hours. An increase in 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear should point to an increase in tornadic activity just after sunset. If convection can stay isolated enough until then, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. With storms moving rather quickly across the area tonight, not expecting a widespread flooding concern. That said, as the front begins to move more south/southeastward south of I-35, a localized flooding concern could take shape, especially in areas that saw several inches of rain the past week. FFG across this area is currently sitting around 1-2 inches, and with HREF QPF probabilities ranging from 0.75-1.5 inches, we could see localized flooding south of I-35. Issued a Flood Watch for Anderson and Coffey counties as that seems to be the area with the highest chances for hydro concerns. By early Wednesday morning, the surface and 850mb boundaries will stall across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, keeping the better QPF axis to our south. Throughout the day Wednesday, another mid-level wave will deepen another lee cyclone in southwestern Kansas and push the stalled boundary north as a warm front. Rain and storm chances along the frontal boundary will continue for much of the day Wednesday and might help to mitigate Wednesday evening`s severe weather chances. Given MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and decent wind shear, some elevated warm advection storms Wednesday could become strong to marginally severe with hail being the main hazard. By Wednesday afternoon, the surface low moving out of southwestern Kansas could begin to develop convection along the dry line in far south-central/central Kansas. This convection will race off to the northeast and could impact portions of north-central Kansas Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday. There still remains a fair amount of uncertainty with how well these storms will be able to maintain their strength as they approach north-central Kansas with Wednesday morning convection possibly stunting severe parameters across the area. Any storms that can sustain themselves will pose risks for large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Confidence still is medium/high with all of the area having a threat of heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as strong moisture convergence along the frontal boundary becomes draped across the area. A Flood watch may be needed for this timeframe. Precipitation chances will begin to decrease into Friday morning as the upper trough axis shifts to the east and surface ridging builds into the area. A few more waves moving across the Plains will keep mention of thunderstorms in the extended forecast into early next week, so not many hints of many breaks in the active weather appears likely. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected through 15Z, then chances for scattered SHRA and some TSRA commence with higher confidence near 18Z or so. Have added vcts for now. Also winds will be northeast to easterly for much of the period then if the front can lift north of the terminals after 00Z winds will shift to the southeast. Speeds will generally be light through 12Z, then around 10kts. Some MVFR cigs are possible after 15Z at MHK, then at TOP and FOE after 18Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Jones DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...53