Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 190514
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Another round of below freezing temperatures is in offing for
tonight across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas
with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Minimum temperatures may be reached earlier than normal tonight
as south-southwesterly winds increase overnight across much of the
area as the surface high centered over the area northeast Oklahoma
this afternoon shifts to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Considerably warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday as
west-southwesterly winds prevail. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the mid 60s to mid 70s Tuesday afternoon. With afternoon relative
humidity values in the 25 to 35 percent range across much of the area,
there will be a limited fire weather danger on Tuesday with enhanced
grassland fire spread rates.

The chances of showers will increase late Wednesday afternoon and
continue through Thursday as the upper level low currently spinning
over southwest Arizona is dislodged and ejects out across the Southern
Plains. There is expected to be adequate instability for a few thunderstorms
as well.

Still uncertainty in the models as we move into the late week into the weekend
period. The GFS continues to be much cooler than the ECMWF during this time-frame.
The forecast which is based on the NBM will stay closer to the warmer ECMWF.
The potential for showers and a few storms will return as we move over
the weekend and into early next week as the next storm system moves approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through
the valid period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  46  73  49 /   0   0  30  50
FSM   69  45  73  51 /   0   0  20  40
MLC   70  47  70  52 /   0   0  20  60
BVO   77  41  72  45 /   0   0  20  40
FYV   67  44  73  46 /   0   0  20  40
BYV   66  45  70  46 /   0   0  20  30
MKO   70  45  70  50 /   0   0  20  50
MIO   70  43  69  47 /   0   0  20  40
F10   71  46  70  51 /   0   0  20  60
HHW   65  43  68  51 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23


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