Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 232318
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
618 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Southeasterly winds will decrease and mid-level cloud deck will
dissipate this evening as diurnal heating ceases for the day.
Overnight clear skies and light winds may allow for a bit of light
fog to develop at KFYV/KXNA/KROG between 10-13Z but any fog that
develops will quickly mix out. Deepening lee trough over the High
Plains will allow southerly winds to pick up after 15Z with a
scattered cu deck developing by early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A couple more unseasonably warm and humid days are on tap before
major changes take place. A piece of the western U.S. trof will
eject northeast into the northern plains early next week, while
the rest of the trof remains to the west. This will allow a cold
front to push east across our area Tuesday, with much cooler
temperatures following in its wake.

With the main trof being left behind in the west, rain will have a
hard time advancing east, and the best rain chances will remain in
the western part of our forecast area during the early to middle
part of next week. Later in the week, a second upper level system
will drop south from Canada into the upper Midwest, driving a
reinforcing cold front south across our area Friday or Friday
night. Overnight lows in the 40s may be widespread across our area
by next Saturday night behind this front.

Went a bit cooler than guidance for overnight lows tonight given
the lows observed this morning. Otherwise, stayed close to
guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  91  68  89 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   69  92  68  90 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   68  91  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   64  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   62  87  61  86 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   65  88  64  87 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   68  91  67  89 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   66  89  65  88 /   0  10  10  10
F10   68  91  67  89 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   68  92  67  91 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11



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