Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291144
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST DECENT WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 40S UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
IS LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SO
THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...WITH PARTS
OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NOW SEEING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE EVERYTHING TO RAIN.

THE TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ONCE IT REACHES THE PLAINS IS BECOMING EVEN MORE MUDDLED AS TIME
GOES ON. THE TENDENCY IS FOR A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN IMPACTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM A SOUTHERLY TRACK POTENTIALLY BRINGING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA...ALA GEM AND ECMWF...TO A
PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS YIELDING A STRONGER
SYSTEM FAR TO OUR NORTH...ALA UKMET. THE GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS ARE PLAUSIBLE...AS WELL AS JUST
ABOUT EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN...ALA GFS. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE ON WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
BUT WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  25  34  17 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   48  27  43  26 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   47  27  40  23 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   45  24  31  15 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   45  23  37  19 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   43  23  37  18 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   47  26  38  20 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   45  24  32  16 /   0   0  10  10
F10   46  26  37  19 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   48  28  44  27 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21





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