Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 202320
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Gusty southwesterly winds will decrease this evening while veering
more westerly as cold front nears then moves through the
terminals tonight. Southerly return flow after 10-12Z ahead of the
next incoming system with increasing chances of precip by late in
the prevailing period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A compact but potent storm system will move across the area late
Saturday into Sunday bringing widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This system is taking a perfect track for snow in
our area, but the total lack of cold air means all rain along
with mild temperatures. Even with increasing cloudiness Saturday,
temperatures will approach the unseasonably warm levels they
reached today in most places.

Once this system clears the area, dry weather will prevail for all
of next week. Warm weather will continue Monday, and especially
Tuesday, with low level thermal profiles suggesting afternoon
readings Tuesday likely reaching or exceeding those seen today.
Have gone well above the blended solution Tuesday, with the MOS
guidance having a much better handle on just how warm it will be.
Fire concerns will also be raised on Tuesday with the warm
temperatures and breezy south to southwest winds.

A cold front will move across the area Tuesday night, with a
return to near seasonable temperatures following for the rest of
next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  67  46  58 /   0  10  80  60
FSM   46  71  47  59 /   0  20  80  80
MLC   47  70  46  60 /   0  20  80  60
BVO   38  67  44  58 /   0   0  90  40
FYV   43  67  45  55 /   0  10  90  80
BYV   47  68  46  56 /   0  10  90  90
MKO   44  68  46  58 /   0  10  80  70
MIO   43  66  45  56 /   0   0  90  50
F10   45  68  46  59 /   0  20  80  60
HHW   47  70  46  62 /   0  30  80  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11



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