Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290917
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
417 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to broken cirrus continued to lift across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this morning in response to
ongoing showers and convection near/south of a cold front
stretched from Southwest Texas to Eastern Arkansas and into the
Ohio River Valley. North of the CWA...a secondary surface frontal
boundary associated with the closed low still located over Ontario
was pushing southward into the Central Plains. Between these two
boundaries...light winds underneath high pressure were common
across the CWA this morning.

Through today...the secondary frontal boundary is expected to
continue southward and enter into Northeast Oklahoma and far
Northwest Arkansas late this afternoon. Latest short-term model
solutions try to develop some isolated convection along/near this
boundary after 21z. Chances are not zero for this to
occur...through for now...have kept pops below mentionable
criteria. To the south of the approaching boundary temperatures
this afternoon are forecast to warm back into the low/mid 80s with
a few locations potentially reaching into the upper 80s.

Overnight tonight into Tuesday the weak surface boundary looks to
wash out over the region before another weak upper level impulse
drops southeast within the upper level flow associated to the
parent closed low in Canada. Increasing moisture within southerly
low level flow interacting with this impulse will allow for
thunderstorm chances to return to Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas Tuesday afternoon/night and spread across the
CWA Wednesday as the wave moves through.

Latest model solutions continue to indicate a shortwave moving
onto the West Coast Wednesday and into the Southern Plains
Thursday/Friday. This will allow for thunderstorm chances to
increase over the CWA through Saturday before an associated
frontal boundary is progged to move across the region Sunday.
Upper level flow continues to look weak during this time
period...limiting severe potentials. However...periods of heavy
rainfall could be possible with multiple rounds of precip over
multiple days. Temperatures during this period look to remain near
the seasonal average.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  61  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
FSM   88  62  87  64 /   0   0  20  10
MLC   87  59  87  62 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   87  56  84  59 /  10  10  20  20
FYV   82  55  81  58 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   83  57  81  60 /  10  10  20  30
MKO   86  60  85  62 /  10   0  20  10
MIO   85  57  83  60 /  10  10  20  30
F10   86  59  85  62 /  10   0  20  10
HHW   86  63  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20



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