Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271144
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
644 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
12Z-14Z SOME STRATUS/FOG SITES KRVS/KTUL/KBVO MIXING OUT.
SCT/BKN CLOUD 35-40 HND FEET AFT 17Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON NOT INCLUDED AT SPECIFIC
TAF SITES. SCATTERED THUNDER TONIGHT OK TAF SITES COVERED WITH
VCTS AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OVERALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEGUN TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS FURTHER TO THE WEST GIVEN THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE
AREA. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WITH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.

AS UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE WESTERN BAJA CA COAST...SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ECMWF A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT DO EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH FRONT INTO SUNDAY.

SHOULD SEE WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE DRIER
WEATHER WOULD BE WELCOME CHANGE GIVEN THE CURRENT ELEVATED LAKE AND
RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  66  82  68 /  40  40  40  50
FSM   81  67  83  67 /  40  40  40  50
MLC   81  67  81  67 /  40  40  40  50
BVO   81  65  80  66 /  40  40  40  50
FYV   79  61  78  66 /  40  40  40  50
BYV   82  62  80  66 /  40  40  40  50
MKO   79  66  79  67 /  40  40  40  50
MIO   82  62  80  67 /  40  40  40  50
F10   80  66  80  67 /  40  40  40  50
HHW   80  66  82  68 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...21





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