Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 230220
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
920 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remained common across the Gulf Coast states this
evening...while a shortwave was positioned over Southeast
Colorado. Between these two features...across Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...southwesterly mid/upper level flow continued
to transport moisture back into the region. This moisture
interacting with a weak surface boundary just south of the Red
River allowed for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over parts of far Southeast Oklahoma. Across
the rest of the CWA...increasing dewpoints and cloud cover were
observed.

Overnight tonight...high pressure is expected to expand slightly
to the northwest toward the region while the shortwave over
Southeast Colorado slowly shifts eastward into the Central Plains.
The tightening of the pressure gradient between these two features
over the Southern Plains will allow for an increase in the low
level jet overnight. These conditions combined with increasing
warm advection will create a shower and thunderstorm potential
remaining overnight across the CWA.

Also overnight...with low level moisture spreading northward over
the CWA...increasing dewpoints and cloud cover are anticipated. By
early morning Tuesday...dewpoints near/in the 70s and mostly
cloudy skies look to be common over the CWA. Thus...for the
evening update...have made minor adjustments to pops/wx and added
minor tweaks to temps/sky/dewpoint/wind grids for the overnight
hours based on current trends and the mentioned above.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  89  78  95 /  30  40   0  10
FSM   73  91  74  95 /  40  40   0   0
MLC   73  91  76  94 /  30  20   0   0
BVO   69  87  74  94 /  20  50  10  10
FYV   69  85  72  90 /  30  40   0   0
BYV   67  84  73  90 /  30  40  10  10
MKO   71  89  74  94 /  40  30   0   0
MIO   69  85  76  93 /  20  50  10  10
F10   72  91  75  94 /  30  20   0   0
HHW   72  92  74  94 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20



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