Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 180956
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
356 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Immediate concern is dense valley fog, some at temperatures
several degrees below freezing, has developed in the low
elevations through much of western AR and far eastern OK.
Dense/Freezing Fog Advisory will run through 15z, though many
locations should see temps rise above freezing before that. South
winds will begin to respond to lee side troughing this afternoon
with gusts in the 30-35 mph in some spots northwest of I-44.
Low level moisture will begin to surge north later today and
offset the fire weather threat for much of the area, though areas
closer to the KS/MO borders will see a lag in moisture return and
thus the highest spread potential. Cloud cover will likely keep
temps in the same ballpark as yesterday, and a few showers could
develop across SE OK by afternoon.

Moist advection in the low levels will continue through tonight
and Monday with some areas of NE OK potentially seeing gusts near
40 mph Monday afternoon. Fortunately in terms of fire weather, the
overall RH will be higher, but some data suggests slightly lower
dew points may mix east toward U.S. 75. With disturbed southwest
upper flow persisting, will see additional showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. With the area remaining
south of strong cold front Monday night, low temperatures will be
25-30 degrees above normal.

Cold front expected to arrive sometime Tuesday, likely by morning
across far northern areas and pushing south during the day.
Falling temperatures will be noted north of the front with gusty
north winds, while areas that remain south of the front will stay
much above normal. More widespread rain and thunderstorms will
become focused along and north of the boundary from SE OK through
NW AR with potential for 1-3 inch amounts Tue/Wed. At this point
flooding concerns look minimal. As colder air continues pushing
south, there is potential for transition to light freezing rain
before tapering off Tuesday night. A secondary wave expected to
bring additional round of precip by Wednesday with further icing
potential for NE OK and NW AR. At this time amounts appear light
but this period will need to be monitored closely in the coming
days.

The unsettled pattern will persist into next weekend with
southwest flow continuing to result in periodic rain chances with
temperatures returning back to near normal as the shallow cold
airmass retreats fairly quickly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  58  70  65 /  10  40  70  70
FSM   59  54  71  63 /  10  40  60  60
MLC   61  59  70  63 /  20  40  60  70
BVO   61  57  70  62 /   0  30  60  70
FYV   57  55  68  59 /  10  50  60  60
BYV   58  54  69  59 /  10  40  60  60
MKO   60  57  69  63 /  10  50  70  70
MIO   61  55  69  63 /   0  40  70  70
F10   61  58  70  63 /  10  40  70  70
HHW   58  56  71  64 /  30  30  50  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ068-069.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14



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