Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 071123
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
523 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Sfc wind gusts between 20-25 kts will be possible at the NE OK
TAF sites behind a cold front that will move through the area this
afternoon. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
through the TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/
Seasonably warm temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold
front which will move through much of the area during the
afternoon. Winds will turn northwesterly and become gusty
especially across northeast OK. This combination of warm
temperatures and gusty winds will support rapid wildfire spread
potential. Winds will be slow to subside overnight with a further
increase in winds on Monday along with noticeably cooler
temperatures. This will be the glancing shot of much colder air
which will be felt moreso to our north and east...while above
normal temperatures focus to our west.
As the area remains poised along the gradient between the two
temperature anomalies...any subtle shift either direction in the
favored airmasses will result in a sharp change in realized
temperatures. This is seen in the large variance within ensemble
temperature solutions and accordingly the temperature forecast
for mid to late week carries considerable uncertainty. The much
more certain aspect is that a dry forecast will continue into
next weekend. Thereafter the pattern becomes somewhat less
amplified and a more substantial wave along with appreciable
moisture return looks possible with precip chances returning
toward the first of next week.