Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 091758
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR WILL START TO MIGRATE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT.  TAF SITES..KBVO KTUL KRVS KMLC MAY SEE
TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER 10Z.  UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
DICTATES PROB30 USE. OTHERWISE...VFR..EXCEPT RISK 5SM
FOG AT SITES KXNA KFYV 10Z-14Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WANING. JUST LOW CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMP ABOUT AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG AT KFYV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND
14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KMLC THROUGH AROUND 16Z
BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH KBVO
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WAS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY WITHIN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WHILE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD SEE
TEMPS IN THE RANGE OF YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AS
A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THUS
POSITIONING THE FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
FRONT GETS REPOSITIONED OVER THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...FORECAST CONVECTION OVER EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS
THIS EVENING LOOKS TO DEVELOP INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING MCS
AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MCS
COULD REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...SHIFTING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK OUT
OF THE SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
PATTERN CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN PUSHING BACK THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK TO REMAIN HOT
AND HUMID BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE CWA. FOR THIS
FORECAST...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE TIME FRAME FOR
COOLER TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  91  74  96 /  30  30  10  10
FSM   71  91  74  96 /  30  20  10  10
MLC   73  93  74  94 /  30  20  10   0
BVO   67  88  72  97 /  40  30  10  10
FYV   66  85  70  90 /  20  30  10  10
BYV   65  85  70  90 /  10  30  10  10
MKO   71  90  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   66  85  73  95 /  20  30  10  10
F10   72  92  74  94 /  30  20  10   0
HHW   73  94  73  95 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.