Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231117
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
617 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered mainly afternoon thunderstorms are expected
to develop along leftover outflow boundaries across the
region. Brief gusty winds will be possible with the stronger
storms. Expect mainly VFR conditions...with MVFR cigs/vsbys
in/near storms. Showers/thunderstorms should begin to weaken
later this evening.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concerns this morning are the persistent, dangerous
heat and humidity across the region and possible effects of
ongoing thunderstorms on this situation.

Thunderstorms continue early this morning across parts of north
central Oklahoma and also in the eastern half of Kansas. A few
small storms have developed just south of the Kansas border in
parts of northeast Oklahoma, and any further development this far
south should remain fairly isolated, given how far removed from
the main area of convection the associated outlow boundary has
pushed - roughly near I-44.

Residual cloud cover should have some impact on temperatures
today, especially very near the Kansas and Missouri borders where
afternoon highs should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Farther south, the outflow boundary itself could also keep
afternoon temperatures down a couple of degrees from yesterday`s
levels, however, given how shallow the boundary is (per the KICT
VWP), it shouldn`t be enough to keep temperatures from nearing
triple digits once again. Heat index values should also be down
from yesterday in most areas, but given how close the forecast
indices are to Excessive Heat Warning criteria, will keep the
existing warning going. The Heat Advisory will also be unchanged.

By mid to late afternoon additional and less isolated
thunderstorms will begin to develop across parts of northeast
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas along the synoptic front,
eventually pushing southward overnight. The stronger storms should
have some damaging wind potential, especially during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Cooler temperatures will arrive
behind the front for the early part of the work week. More
afternoon and evening thunderstorm development should occur
Monday, especially across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas,
as an upper level wave moves through the area.

A return to hot and humid conditions will occur for the middle
part of the week as the upper level ridge strengthens over the
central United States. The ridge will amplify and shift westward
toward the latter part of the work week and into next weekend,
bringing more northwesterly flow to the region. A front will
approach and move through the area during the Thursday-Friday time
frame, with thunderstorm potential increasing as the front pushes
through. Temperatures behind the front may actually be below
normal for a few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  75  95  77 /  40  40  30  20
FSM   98  77  94  75 /  50  50  40  30
MLC   97  75  93  74 /  40  40  40  20
BVO   95  70  95  73 /  40  30  20  20
FYV   92  71  91  70 /  40  50  30  20
BYV   93  71  91  72 /  40  40  30  20
MKO   97  74  93  75 /  50  50  40  20
MIO   95  72  93  73 /  30  30  20  20
F10   98  74  93  75 /  50  50  40  20
HHW   96  75  93  75 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-063-
     068-069-072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>058-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18


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