Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 291712
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1212 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered thunderstorms will persist into the afternoon and
possibly impact the BVO/TUL/RVS terminals. VFR conditions
expected...with some brief MVFR cigs/vsbsy in and near storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 618 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog will continue through about 14z mainly across northwest
AR with occasional IFR conditions at KFYV. VFR conditions will
prevail otherwise with scattered showers and thunderstorms through
the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Current satellite imagery shows a deck of accas across much of
eastern OK this morning. There`s no returns on radar as of this
writing. However, the accas presence indicates there is mid level
moisture overhead with some instability. As we head toward the
coolest part of the day (around dawn), mid level instability will
be maximized and thus some high based thunderstorms are possible.
Several of the models pick up on this, including the HRRR/HRRRX,
NAM and GFS. The ECMWF doesn`t show this signal. Will follow the
general theme of the model blend for pops. Given the uncertainties
regarding cloud cover and precip, have elected to go near model
blend for high temps as well for today. Thunderstorm coverage
shouldn`t be as great on Tuesday. With less cloud cover, expect
high temps to be closer to what was observed yesterday, with the
NAM 2m temps suggesting mid 90s are possible.

The theme of the previous forecasts has been maintained. Models
are in good agreement in pushing a cold front into the area
Wednesday, sliding south down around the Red River by midday
Thursday. This time frame will likely be our best chance for rain
this week. Highs will back off as well behind the front to close
out the work week, with readings in the 80s areawide. As of right
now, next weekend looks dry with a slow warming trend back into
the upper 80s to low 90s.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  93  71  90 /  10  30  20  50
FSM   74  94  73  92 /  10  20  10  40
MLC   71  94  70  92 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   69  91  69  87 /  20  30  30  50
FYV   68  89  68  86 /  10  20  20  40
BYV   70  89  68  86 /  10  30  20  40
MKO   71  93  70  91 /  10  20  20  40
MIO   70  92  69  86 /  20  30  20  50
F10   71  93  71  91 /  10  20  20  40
HHW   73  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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