Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 012332
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Overnight tonight few to scattered high level clouds are expected
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas with light and
variable winds. During the day Friday...scattered to broken mid
level clouds are forecast to increase from west to east as an
upper level low drops southeast into Northern Mexico. Any precip
chances should remain just outside of this TAF period. VFR
conditions should persist through the period across all TAF sites.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dry and seasonably mild conditions will continue through Friday
with increasing rain chances late Friday night...through
Saturday...before ending from west to east on Sunday. The heaviest
rainfall remains most likely across SE OK and points southward
within the zone of strongest upglide / moisture advection. Rain
chances will, however, remain rather high across all of E OK / NW
AR but precip amounts will be noticeably less compared to more
southern locations. Extensive cloud cover and precip will keep
temps cool on Saturday with a slightly warmer day on Sunday as
skies begin to clear.

Rain chances quickly return to the region on Monday as the upper
low previously forecast to reside over Northern Mexico ejects
northeastward across the Southern Plains. Dry weather returns by
Tuesday with a strong cold front then timed to sweep through the
region. Currently the forecast timing for the frontal passage is spread
between Tues - Wed. Given the timing differences forecast
temperatures likely do not capture the true gradient that will be
experienced as the post frontal airmass will be the coldest of the
season. Some indications remain for light precip both along the
frontal zone and beneath the trailing mid level trough axis. This
is not uncommon with model solutions of a sharp temp gradient and
will not be given much credence at this time range of the
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  57  39  48 /   0   0  60  60
FSM   37  59  41  47 /   0   0  50  80
MLC   39  58  43  47 /   0  10  70  80
BVO   27  55  38  48 /   0   0  40  50
FYV   30  55  37  46 /   0   0  40  60
BYV   33  57  36  45 /   0   0  30  60
MKO   35  56  41  48 /   0   0  60  60
MIO   33  57  37  48 /   0   0  30  40
F10   38  57  41  48 /   0  10  60  70
HHW   37  62  44  46 /   0   0  70  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.