Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 301654
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1054 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015
Last gasp for light rain chances today before prolonged
period of dry weather. Lowered max temps couple degrees.
Areas west of highway 75 in Eastern OK likely to see a
little sun by late day!
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015/
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widespread IFR ceilings continue w/ scattered areas of light rain
and drizzle also reducing visibilities at times. Low level
moisture remains in place ahead of cold front which will push
through the area tonight. Result will be persistent low ceilings
either IFR or low MVFR levels w/ clearing likely behind the
frontal passage. Where clouds clear early enough...patchy fog
could develop w/ some indications that locally dense fog is
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015/
Today should finally be the last of the cold, cloudy, rainy
conditions that have plagued this region since the middle of last
week. Rain potential will again spread into parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas later this morning, as well as
far southeast Oklahoma, the former due to a disturbance positioned
over southwest Kansas and into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle
region and the latter in response to a strong upper level speed
maximum in the base of the main upper low. Additional rainfall
amounts should remain fairly light and largely confined to the
morning hours today. The dry slot will push northeastward across
the forecast area through the afternoon and evening hours,
effectively ending the precipitation.
The big question for this morning`s forecast is how quickly the
low cloudiness will erode. Substantial differences exist in the
model relative humidity fields, with the NAM fields suggesting a
continuation in the cloudiness into Tuesday morning and the GFS
and ECMWF pointing toward a faster exit. This forecast will show a
slower exit than the inherited forecast, but not so slow as to
match the NAM suggestion. This will also result in forecast low
temperatures that are warmer than guidance.
High temperatures will warm into the 50s across most of the area
under sunny skies on Tuesday, with a quick, dry cool front on
Wednesday knocking temperatures back a couple of degrees. South
winds return by the end of the week and into the weekend ahead of
the next storm system set to arrive late in the weekend and into
early next week. Highs should be above normal especially Friday
and Saturday, with shower chances returning during the day Sunday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 46 32 51 30 / 20 0 10 10
FSM 51 36 54 32 / 30 0 10 10
MLC 49 34 53 30 / 10 0 10 10
BVO 44 29 51 25 / 20 0 10 10
FYV 48 32 51 27 / 30 0 10 10
BYV 49 35 50 31 / 30 10 10 10
MKO 48 33 52 30 / 20 0 10 10
MIO 46 32 49 28 / 30 0 10 10
F10 48 33 52 30 / 10 0 10 10
HHW 50 37 54 33 / 20 10 10 10