Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
...AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS WILL
BE COMMON FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z-01Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. THE PLAINS SIT BENEATH SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH AN
EMBEDDED PV MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LIFT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE SOME SNOW MAY EVEN FALL OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY. CONCOMITANT SURFACE FRONT TO OUR
NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY...BUT THE COOLING
WILL LAG BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT...THUS THE WARMER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL MIX DOWN AND BRING A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
COOLING WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FELT ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AS
HIGHS DROP BACK BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES.

DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
WEEK...AND THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL LEAD TO A
SHARP WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING
70 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IF NOT
WARMER IN SOME SPOTS.

A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN OUT OF WESTERN
CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SEND A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT OOZING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BE MODIFYING AS IT HEADS
SOUTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 30 DEGREES COOLER IN
SOME PLACES BY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL NOT STICK AROUND
LONG...AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL TO OUR WEST WITH SOME ENERGY PUNCHING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...PRODUCING FALLING PRESSURES ON THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY DRAW IT OUT.

THE MODELS HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WITH NO
UPPER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION DISCERNABLE AT THIS POINT...I WILL
ELECT TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





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