Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 210955
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
355 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A strong storm system will move out of the Rockies into the Plains
today. Gusty southerly winds ahead of this system will continue to
transport unseasonable warmth and moisture northward into our area
today. Similar to Saturday, morning low cloudiness will tend to
dissipate during the late morning to early afternoon time frame,
and temperatures will respond by warming into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The warm and windy weather will result in a limited
fire danger, with higher fire danger to the west of our area where
surface dewpoints will fall off sharply later this afternoon
following the passage of a dryline.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop by mid to late
afternoon, mainly from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
Instability will be limited, but a few strong to severe storms
will be possible during the late afternoon and evening, with
damaging winds being the main severe weather threat.

A cold front will sweep across the area overnight, with gusty west
winds following in its wake Monday. Much drier air will also
overspread the area, making Monday the day of greatest fire
weather concerns in our area, especially where significant
rainfall does not occur later today. Considerable cloud cover
across the northern part of the forecast area may mitigate the
danger to some degree however.

Mild weather will be the rule for much of the upcoming week.
Another storm system will affect the area by late Friday into
Saturday, with the greatest rain chances again across the southern
and eastern part of the forecast area.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  40  50  29 /  20  20   0   0
FSM   71  43  55  31 /  50  90   0   0
MLC   71  41  54  31 /  40  30   0   0
BVO   71  38  49  26 /  20  10  10   0
FYV   67  40  47  27 /  50  90  10   0
BYV   69  42  48  29 /  30  90  10   0
MKO   71  40  51  30 /  40  40   0   0
MIO   69  40  47  28 /  40  40  10  10
F10   71  40  52  30 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   71  42  57  32 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE



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