Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 232323
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Band of convection that developed along outflow/weak frontal boundary
this afternoon has pushed south of I-40 at this time and will
continue to spread south this evening into sern OK. IFR visibilities
and wind gusts to 40 mph still possible at MLC next couple hours as
band moves through. Otherwise, all sites will see layered clouds
gradually become less widespread from north to south overnight. Some
light fog possible FYV where heavy rain fell and good radiational
cooling expected. Low probability of TSRA at FSM/MLC after 18z Monday
but confidence too low at this time to include in TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 213 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface boundary currently located near highway 412 this afternoon,
near a Oilton, Tulsa, Kansas line, extending into northwest Arkansas.
Moderate instability has developed south of boundary with lifted indices
running around -5 to -7. Isolated thunderstorms have started to
develop south of the boundary and expect this trend to continue as
CAP erodes and MCV moves SSE into southeast Oklahoma.

Still the potential for damaging down burst winds/locally heavy rainfall
in the stronger storms through mid evening before convection pushes
south and dissipates. Storms will likely remain more multicellular
in nature given the weak shear but slow storm motions may lead to
some localized flooding. Current excessive heat warning remains
on track with heat indices in the 110-113 degree range expected
before storms/outflow sweeps through. North of I-44 the heat
advisory may be cancelled early as drier air continues to filter
into region behind boundary.

Limited precipitation chances will continue across southeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas both Monday and Tuesday, however storms are
expected to remain more isolated in nature. Hot/humid conditions
will also persist with heat indices climbing back to around heat
advisory criteria Tuesday and especially Wednesday/Thursday.

Next cold front forecast to move into the area around the Friday
time frame, however ECMWF a little slower compared with the more
progressive GFS. Regardless, scattered showers/thunderstorms will
be possible as front moves through. It looks like we will finally
see a break from the heat into next weekend, behind the front, as
longwave upper trough develops over the eastern CONUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  98  73  97 /  20  10  20  10
FSM   74  95  76  96 /  50  30  20  20
MLC   71  93  72  95 /  60  30  20  10
BVO   65  96  67  97 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   66  92  68  92 /  20  20  20  20
BYV   68  94  70  93 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   71  94  72  95 /  30  20  20  10
MIO   67  95  70  96 /  20  10  10  10
F10   72  95  72  96 /  30  20  20  10
HHW   74  92  73  95 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053-073-075.

AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...69



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