Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 180916
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT RAINFALL WILL HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM NEBRASKA
DOWN INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT WEST
WILL MAKE A RUN AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORM
THAT CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT(S) FOR OUR AREA WILL BE
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
UNDER THE GUN SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY IT BECOMES TOUGHER TO FAVOR
ANY PARTICULAR AREA AS PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL PLAY SOME ROLE IN
DETERMINING THAT. STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY
EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AFTER A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE BY THAT TIME WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT WILL ALSO RESULT IN
SLOWER MOVING STORMS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  71  88  67 /  10  30  20  60
FSM   89  69  89  69 /  10  10  10  30
MLC   88  70  87  70 /  10  20  20  40
BVO   89  70  89  66 /  10  30  50  70
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  10  10  10  40
BYV   86  66  86  67 /  10  10  10  60
MKO   88  69  88  68 /  10  20  20  40
MIO   86  70  86  67 /  10  20  20  70
F10   87  70  87  68 /  10  30  20  40
HHW   87  68  87  69 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05

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