Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 201001
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
401 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds have overspread the area this morning, and some patchy
drizzle has developed across far southeast Oklahoma. The drizzle
will continue into the morning hours, so will add a mention across
parts of southeast Oklahoma. The HRRR suggests low clouds will
break up some by this afternoon, which will allow temperatures to
warm into the 60s. Confidence is relatively low however, so the
day shift will need to monitor cloud and temperature trends as the
day unfolds. Gusty south winds will keep fire weather concerns
around, but increasing low level moisture will limit the overall
fire threat today.

Another windy and warm day is on tap for Sunday as a strong storm
system moves into the central Plains. A dryline is expected to
reach near the western border of our forecast area by late
afternoon, but if it moves a bit more to the east, a greater fire
danger may develop in the far northwest part of our forecast area.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening along and ahead of the
dryline and Pacific cold front which will overtake the dryline
Sunday evening. Instability will be limited, but a few strong to
severe wind gusts will be possible mainly from southeast Oklahoma
into western Arkansas.

Dry weather with above normal temperatures will prevail much of
next week following the passage of this storm system. Gusty west
winds Monday may result in that day seeing the greatest overall
fire danger, especially in places that do not see significant
rainfall Sunday. Another storm system will affect the area next
Friday night and Saturday bringing a chance of showers.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  53  70  37 /  10  10  30  30
FSM   64  52  71  41 /  10  10  50  80
MLC   66  56  71  39 /  10  10  50  40
BVO   65  47  70  35 /  10  10  30  30
FYV   60  50  66  38 /  10  10  40  80
BYV   62  51  68  40 /  10  10  40  90
MKO   65  53  70  38 /  10  10  50  50
MIO   62  51  68  37 /  10  10  40  60
F10   66  54  71  38 /  10  10  40  30
HHW   66  55  71  41 /  10  10  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE



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