Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 212302
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL OVERALL OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH IT. THE DRIER AIR AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REALLY DROP OFF TONIGHT...WITH
SOME 40S LIKELY AT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS...50S AND LOW 60S
ELSEWHERE. VERY FALL-LIKE DAYS ARE COMING UP TO START THE WORK
WEEK...SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU CAN.

AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
TAKE THE SCENIC ROUTE UP THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL LOWER PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER
HEIGHT FIELDS DEVELOPS AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY
UPSTREAM...THUS CREATING A TEMPORARY SPLIT FLOW BLOCK. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WILL BE CAUSED BY THE BUCKLING OF A STRONG EXTENDED
JET ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS NEXT WEEK WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WESTERLIES CLEAR UP IN CANADA. THE DEEP LAYER MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID/UPPER HEIGHT WEAKNESS WILL LIKELY STAY TO OUR
WEST...AND THUS WE SHOULD STAY DRY HERE. ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE CONFINED WEST OF TULSA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND TAKES WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF THIS SYSTEM NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AFTER SOME NICE DAYS TO START THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
MODIFY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN...SO I`M NOT
READY TO WRITE OFF THE WARM AND HUMID DAYS JUST YET. UNTIL A
SYSTEM IS ABLE TO CLEAR OUT THE GULF...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE FAR
AWAY AND CAN RETURN RATHER QUICKLY.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23





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