Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 212313
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
613 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front is making its way south across the region this
afternoon. Strong NE winds prevail behind the front, but should
subside during the overnight. Clouds will be on the increase as
well, but once again tonight it appears that the statistical
guidance is way too pessimistic. Short term model moisture
profiles show cigs near 850mb, which would still be low end VFR.
Aside from some brief periods of MVFR, my forecast will continue
to lean on the optimistic side and maintain mostly low end VFR
cigs thru Wednesday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front snaked from far northwest AR-northeast OK-southwest
OK this afternoon...with low/mid 80s south of the boundary and 70s
north. Earlier strong convection has scooted east of the
area...but still may see some scattered development near the
boundary this evening...especially across parts of northwest AR.
The front will sag to near the OK/TX border later tonight...with
increasing low clouds across most of the forecast area. Widespread
clouds will keep Wednesday temps much cooler than what we`ve
experienced the past few days...with highs in the 50s/60s.

Warmer temperatures return by Thursday as southerly flow
strengthens ahead of the next upper low across the 4-corners
region. A sharp dryline/Pacific front will develop to our west by
early Friday...and eventually surge east into central OK by
Friday afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms will develop along the
boundary...with the activity moving through the forecast area
through the afternoon and early evening. Instability isn`t overly
impressive with a narrow band of CAPE expected along the
boundary...but impressive layered shear should support some
severe weather with this activity. May have some lingering
showers/few storms into Friday night/early Saturday as the cold
core moves across northeast OK.

The upper wave train continues through the weekend...with another
compact upper low moving into the Plains bringing increasing
storm chances later Sunday into Sunday night. Another upper system
could potentially impact the area by the middle of next
week...although the latest extended models differ significantly
with speed/strength.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  60  51  76 /  20  30  30  10
FSM   56  59  48  77 /  30  30  20  10
MLC   56  66  55  80 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   46  57  47  80 /  20  30  30  10
FYV   48  54  45  72 /  30  30  30  10
BYV   44  51  41  72 /  30  30  30  10
MKO   54  61  50  76 /  20  30  30  10
MIO   45  54  48  77 /  20  30  30  10
F10   53  63  53  76 /  20  30  20  10
HHW   60  68  54  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.