Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 232037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LIFE THREATENING FLOOD POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS BENEATH
ANY CONVECTIVE SEGMENT THAT BECOMES ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE DIFFLUENT REGION GRADUALLY SPREADS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TX NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL FORECASTS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
BASED ON OBSERVED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATER UPDATES
MAY NEED TO INCREASE TOTALS A BIT FURTHER ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

IMPACT: WET SOILS ALONG WITH MANY LARGER RIVERS NEAR OR CURRENTLY
IN FLOOD STAGE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING. EVEN
THE CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL PRODUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY
THREATENING FLOODING.

THE RAINFALL AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON / OVERNIGHT
AND IMPACT WESTERN ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RAINFALL TOTALS MAY TAPER A
BIT AS THE UPPER FORCING REMAINS LESS...THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING. OF ADDITIONAL
CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF
STORMS ORIGINATES ACROSS WESTERN TX AND SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST NEAR THE
ARKLATEX REGION...HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
INTO SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL QUICKLY WORSEN ANY
ONGOING FLOOD CONDITIONS.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  75  64  81 / 100 100  40  20
FSM   68  78  66  80 /  90 100  80  40
MLC   67  73  67  79 / 100 100  40  40
BVO   65  74  61  81 / 100 100  40  20
FYV   65  74  63  77 /  80 100  80  40
BYV   64  76  64  78 /  70 100  80  30
MKO   65  74  64  80 / 100 100  50  40
MIO   65  76  63  80 / 100 100  60  20
F10   65  73  65  79 / 100 100  40  40
HHW   68  75  67  79 /  90 100  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....07




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