Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 220942
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
342 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low currently centered over southwest OK/northwest TX
with a well-defined mid level frontogenetic band extending from
west central AR into northwest OK. As the low moves east roughly
along the Red River today, expect zone of strongest lift to pivot
north and become more focused across northwest AR into northeast
OK before shifting east of the area late this afternoon. Much of
this zone remains convectively unstable this morning and as a
result, localized rainfall rates close to an inch per hour have
been observed. Meanwhile, associated sfc low will continue to
deepen and slide across southeast OK, with gradient supporting
gusty W-NW winds, potentially close to advisory levels in some
areas this afternoon.

This system will quickly move east of the area by this evening
with diminishing winds and clearing skies resulting in a cooler
night, but still at or above normal. Winds will gradually shift
to the south Monday afternoon, then will increase significantly
again by Tuesday afternoon as another upper wave moves across the
plains, this time taking a more northerly track with deep sfc low
over eastern KS by afternoon. This will favor a potentially
critical fire weather day over parts of eastern OK as a long fetch
of low level SW flow off of the southern high plains will bring
warmer and much drier air into the area.

Beyond Tuesday the weather will remain dry with temperatures close
to seasonal normals under northwest flow regime. No significant
cold air intrusions expected through next weekend at least.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  32  57  44 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   55  35  59  37 /  80  10   0   0
MLC   56  35  61  44 /  50   0   0   0
BVO   54  28  57  35 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   50  31  55  35 / 100  10   0   0
BYV   51  34  54  41 / 100  10   0   0
MKO   54  32  56  41 /  80   0   0   0
MIO   51  32  55  40 / 100   0   0   0
F10   55  34  59  44 /  70   0   0   0
HHW   58  37  62  42 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14



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