Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 270830
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
West- southwesterly upper level flow associated with an upper low
over the Baja of California was streaming mid and high level
clouds across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas early this
morning. This cloud cover is expected to decrease from north to
south during the day today as the upper level flow becomes more
northwesterly in response to a closed low currently located over
the northern part of the Great Lakes Region dropping southward
toward the Ohio River Valley. At the same time this
afternoon...surface winds should begin to shift more out of the
southwest while surface high pressure exits the region. These
conditions should help afternoon temperatures to be a few degrees
warmer today compared to yesterday for most locations.

The southward moving closed low is forecast to push a backdoor
cold front into and through the region during the day Wednesday.
A lack of moisture over the CWA should keep the frontal passage
dry. Ahead of the front...across Southeast Oklahoma into West
Central Arkansas...temperatures look to continue a warming trend
with highs in the mid/upper 80s possible. Behind the
front...breezy northerly winds transporting another shot of cooler
and drier air are expected to filter into the region.
Thus...temperatures dropping back into the 70s will be possible
for highs over the CWA Thursday and Friday.

During the weekend...latest model solutions indicate surface
winds beginning to shift back toward the south by Monday ahead of
another wave dropping southeast from the Pacific Northwest into
the Rocky Mountain Region. Thus...another warming trend is
forecast with the warmest days Monday and Tuesday as southerly
winds become breezy ahead of the next approaching cold front. This
system looks to possibly bring the next chance for precip to the
region by the middle part of next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  57  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   82  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   81  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   81  52  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  51  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   77  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   80  54  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   78  54  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   81  55  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   80  54  87  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20


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