Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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208
FXUS64 KTSA 261958
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Active weather pattern will be maintained with several systems to
impact the plains during this forecast cycle...with the first
just to west that will bring shower and thunderstorm
chances...along with severe potential to the region this evening
and tonight.


Moisture continues to surge north across central and west central
Oklahoma out ahead of a sharpening dry line thats just pushed
into far west central Oklahoma. Scattered showers and storms
developed earlier within the moist axis are moving northeast
...but these are moving into a less favorable environment which
will likely preclude severe weather with these storms. Additional
scattered activity is expected to fire up later this afternoon
along the dryline and translate east...entering eastern Oklahoma
in the 6-7 pm time period and it is at this time severe chances
will increase. Tornado potential will be highest with the initial
storms this evening...especially across southeast Oklahoma. As the
evening progresses...storms will become increasingly linear...and
will pose more of a straightline wind and hail threat as they
moce east.

This system will end storm chances on Monday...with a brief lull
before the next system barrels into the plains in the Wednesday
and Thursday time frame. Features associated with this system are
a bit larger scale...so while there may be a window for severe
weather...it may be more of a widespread rain event with heavy
rain potential.

After a few settled days...the next system moves into the region
for the latter part of the weekend...and may offer area wide
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Concerning temperatures...stayed close to guidance given the
unsettled pattern expected during this forecast cycle.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  54  68  45 /  40  70  10   0
FSM   77  58  70  50 /  10  80  20   0
MLC   77  59  72  47 /  20  70  10   0
BVO   71  50  67  39 /  40  70  10   0
FYV   71  55  66  39 /  10  80  40   0
BYV   70  56  65  43 /  10  80  50   0
MKO   75  56  69  45 /  20  70  10   0
MIO   70  53  66  42 /  10  90  40   0
F10   75  56  70  46 /  40  60  10   0
HHW   79  61  73  50 /  20  80  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23



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