Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 220439
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1139 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LIGHT FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DENSE
FOG STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NW AR FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS NOT AS ROBUST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY FOG...PRIMARILY IN THE FYV/XNA AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS/MIXING SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN AR WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NEXT WAVE THE PASS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS / ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WAVE AS IT PASSES WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE
PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS NO MEANINGFUL
AIRMASS CHANGE WILL FOLLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE
WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY TIMED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD W/ THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12





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