Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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596
FXUS64 KTSA 250844
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
344 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main areas of interest in this morning`s forecast are: 1)
Sensible wx today with departing upper low, 2) Severe weather
potential late Sunday into Sunday night with storm system deuce,
3) Rain/storm potential toward the middle of next week with storm
system trey, and finally 4) More possible rain chances by next
weekend.

Vertically stacked cyclone is moving overhead early this morning.
A band of storms has formed along its deformation zone and at
times has produced hail to the size of pennies in the Owasso area.
This activity will gradually build east toward NW AR and far NE OK
as the morning wears on. Cooler air and widespread low clouds on
the backside of the low pressure will tend to limit temperature
rise today and have thus lowered high temp forecast for today.

A progressive shortwave trough in this proverbial gravy train of
storm systems will affect the southern Plains Sunday afternoon
thru Monday morning. At the surface, a dryline is expected to mix
east to central OK, to the west of I-35 Sunday afternoon. The
instability axis ahead of the dryline will be narrow at that time as
moisture will be in the process of returning to the region.
Daytime heating combined with favorable upper support due to good
timing with the shortwave will lead to storm development along
the dryline. The main question for eastern OK is how far east can
the atmosphere destabilize as we head into the evening as the
dryline storms advance into our area. If the storms can stay
rooted near the surface, in other words, near or south of the warm
front, all modes of severe are possible, including tornadoes.
Elevated storms with large hail potential are definitely possible
north of the warm front. The northward advancement of the warm
front is in question. Some data says it will stay down near the
Red River, while some data has it lifting north to near the I-40
corridor.

Another upper low is poised to affect our region toward the middle
of next week. The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS differ in the
details regarding how the system will evolve as it moves into the
Plains, and the location of the surface features. Pockets of
locally heavy rainfall is something they do agree upon, and there
will likely be some storm activity, with the best severe
potential down toward the Red River. However these details will
continue to get better refined as we get closer.

Considerable disagreement exists regarding the potential for
another storm system by next weekend. For now will broad brush low
end chance pops. This may be the last system in this active
pattern before some change occurs to the upper flow pattern.
Hopefully we can come out of this week unscathed.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  45  76  54 /  20   0  30  70
FSM   64  47  79  57 /  30   0  10  70
MLC   66  46  81  58 /  10   0  30  70
BVO   59  42  74  51 /  30   0  30  80
FYV   58  43  72  54 /  60  10  10  80
BYV   61  45  70  54 /  60  10   0  70
MKO   60  45  78  57 /  30   0  20  70
MIO   57  43  71  53 /  60  10  10  80
F10   62  46  79  56 /  10   0  30  70
HHW   70  48  80  59 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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