Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 180452
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1052 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions continue with southerly winds increasing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 920 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface analysis shows Arctic high center has shifted well
to our southeast and winds have responded accordingly over much of
the area. Thus despite clear skies, low tonight will be several
degrees warmer. Some locations, especially over the remaining
snow cover, have dropped to near or slightly below forecast lows,
but tough to say just how much farther they will drop given the
increasing southerly gradient. Also, possible that some of these
areas could see wind chills down to around -5 or so, but sustained
10mph wind criteria unlikely to be met. Issued an earlier update
to lower forecast mins in a few areas, otherwise forecast is in
good shape.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 452 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions continue with increasing southerly winds tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast challenges today will be temperatures the next
several days and rain/thunder chances/timing this weekend.

The snowpack across far NE OK and NW AR continues to shrink, and
should be mostly gone by tomorrow. Will adjust overnight lows
tonight and highs tomorrow slightly to account for remaining
cover.

A pattern change toward a lower amplitude and more progressive
regime is underway today. The deep upper trough that brought our
most recent arctic plunge is lifting out to the northeast. Heights
are falling along the Pac NW coast as a system approaches. A
northward shift in the jet, as western CONUS troughing develops,
will allow temps to modify rather quickly as this week wears on.
There is still uncertainty as to how fast temps warm up, as is
evidenced by the spread in guidance. Have elected to stay closer
to middle ground for the forecast. Nevertheless, temps should
climb well above normal by the end of the week.

The next system to affect the Plains will arrive Sunday. There are
still timing differences between the faster GFS and slower EC.
Have elected to keep PoPs more in the middle ground for now until
this can be resolved. Still looks like an axis of weak instability
will work its way up into the region ahead of the associated
Pacific front. Isolated storm mention will be maintained.

Another period of quiet weather is expected in the wake of the
Sunday system. Since airmass behind the front is more of a Pacific
origin, temps into early next week should be generally near or
slightly above average.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   18  46  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   14  45  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   10  44  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
BVO    8  46  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
FYV    9  42  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   10  43  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
MKO    9  44  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
MIO    5  40  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
F10   17  46  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   15  43  25  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....07


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