Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 290916
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
416 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convective complex moving across north central Texas will limit
warm advection/moisture return into eastern OK this morning. Most
of the operations models have had a poor handle on these storms,
though the HRRR in last couple of runs has finally acknowledged
their presence and, as such, has given up on the idea of a
developing complex in western Kansas that would impact parts of
the area later today. A few elevated cells trying to develop on
north flank and may see this move into southeast OK early this
morning. Probability of additional storms this afternoon will be
dependent on the eventual fate of north Texas complex, which most
guidance tends to weaken later this morning, but this is far from
a given at this point. Overall, the highest chance still appears
to be over the western half of the forecast area through tonight.

Additional weak and subtle forcing for convection remains in
play through Monday before an upper trough swings through the
northern plains and a more substantial jet streak lifts out of
Mexico into the southern plains by Tuesday into Wednesday. This
period will offer the highest chance of precip with the attendant
threat of heavy rainfall in some areas. Frontal boundary will
bring a drier and cooler airmass to the area by Thursday with
precip chances ending and below normal temperatures to end the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  66  84  66 /  30  30  40  30
FSM   88  67  85  67 /  30  20  40  30
MLC   85  66  84  67 /  40  30  40  30
BVO   85  63  83  64 /  30  30  40  30
FYV   84  62  82  63 /  20  20  40  30
BYV   85  62  83  62 /  20  20  40  30
MKO   84  65  83  66 /  40  30  40  30
MIO   84  63  85  65 /  20  20  40  30
F10   83  65  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
HHW   86  68  86  67 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14



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