Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 210202
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
902 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A nearly stationary frontal boundary was positioned from Southwest
Oklahoma to South Central Kansas and into Northwest Missouri this
evening. East of the boundary...mostly clear conditions along
with southerly winds 5 to 10 mph were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

Overnight tonight into Thursday morning...the low level jet is
expected to increase into the 25-35KT range along with an ongoing
instability axis along and just east of the frontal boundary. The
interaction between these features could allow for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm to develop overnight tonight into Thursday
morning before the frontal boundary retreats westward. Greater
potential for this to get into the CWA looks to be north of
Interstate 44 and west of Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma. Will
leave isolated pops going tonight...though confidence remains low.

Also...mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dewpoints again
holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s should keep low temperatures
tonight close to this mornings readings. Thus...for the evening
update have adjusted pops to the areas mentioned above and also
added minor tweaks to hourly temp/sky/dewpoint/wind grids for
tonight. The rest of the forecast seems to be in good shape at
this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  93  73  92 /  10  20   0  10
FSM   74  93  73  93 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   76  92  73  91 /   0  10   0  10
BVO   74  93  71  91 /  20  20   0  10
FYV   71  89  67  88 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   71  90  69  89 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   74  92  72  91 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   73  90  72  89 /  10  20   0   0
F10   75  93  73  91 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   74  92  71  92 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....12


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