Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 161535
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1035 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Main change to the morning update was to bump up PoPs this
afternoon, mostly for locations along and south of I-40. Light to
moderate rain is forecast to spread into southeast OK (and
eventually west-central AR) from southern OK/northern TX by mid-
late afternoon. Latest hi-res data indicate rain spreading as far
north as Okmulgee/Wagoner/Cherokee/Adair counties. Went ahead and
increased PoPs to account for this northern extent, with 15-20%
PoPs as far north as the Tulsa metro. Elevated instability
is still expected to be limited to far southeast OK. Maintained
isolated thunder chances for that area. Otherwise, the rest of
the forecast remains valid.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
A strong cold front will sweep through the area late tonight into
Sunday morning. Cool/breezy conditions expected during the day Sunday
as upper trough axis swings out of the Great Lakes region into
the mid Mississippi River Vally.

Surface high pressure will continue to build across the southern
Plains Sunday night. Light winds/clear skies will allow temperatures
to fall below freezing by Monday morning across portions of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Surface high will settle directly
over the region on Monday and even with full sun, high temperatures
are forecast to remain in the lower to mid 50s. Another freeze appears
likely Monday night across northwest Arkansas.

Big warm up still expected on Tuesday as upper ridge begins to build
in from the west with gusty southwest winds. At least limited fire
weather concerns will develop Tuesday afternoon with RH values falling
into the 25-30 percent range, mainly along/west of Highway 75.

Upper low, currently over the desert Southwest, forecast to remain
quasi-stationary through the early part of the work week. Models
in relatively good agreement with increasing rain chances starting
Wednesday and especially into Thursday as upper low moves into
the area. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible during this
time with the best chance for storms along/south of I-40. A few
lingering showers will be possible across far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas on Friday before upper system shifts east of
the region. Mild conditions will persist for the latter part of
the week with temperatures running several degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A weak upper wave will increase shower chances across SE OK
this afternoon, however most coverage and isolated thunder
potential is expected to remain south of the KMLC site, but will
include a VCSH for much of the afternoon and continuing through
04z. There may also be a period of MVFR cigs at KMLC from 14z-18z
when at that time cigs should raise to VFR levels. Elsewhere at
the remaining sites, TAF elements will remain VFR through the
period with cigs above 3000 feet, though very brief IFR/MVFR
vsbys in fog will be possible at KFYV between 12z-13z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  47  62  32 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   72  52  66  36 /  50  20   0   0
MLC   70  50  65  36 /  60  30   0   0
BVO   70  42  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  43  61  28 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   68  44  58  30 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   68  49  62  33 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   68  43  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  49  62  34 /  50  10   0   0
HHW   68  53  66  40 /  90  60  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.