Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 211131
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Overall flight conditions will remain in the IFR category through
this forecast cycle. Widespread rain has largely shifted
southeast of the area for the time being, however some additional
light rain or freezing rain will spread back north across
southeast OK and possibly west central AR later this morning, with
another round of ice accumulating expected to impact northeast OK
by around 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Cloud cover along with surface ridging to our west/persistent
northeasterly surface winds will keep the shallow cold air in
place today, with much of eastern OK and far northwest AR
remaining near or below freezing. Morning precipitation will be
mainly confined to areas near or a little above freezing (far
southeast OK/western AR), although precipitation is expected to
lift back north through western/central OK later this morning and
into portions of eastern OK during the afternoon and into the
evening hours. RAP/NAM soundings suggest a mix of freezing rain
and some sleet, with the greatest accumulations generally along
and west of a McAlester to Vinita line. The risk of wintry
precipitation across northwest AR may hold off until beyond 00Z,
with the better chances arriving later Wednesday night.

While there are obvious uncertainties with how quickly
precipitation redevelops and areal extent, feel its prudent to go
ahead with another winter weather advisory for a large portion of
eastern OK and into far northwest AR beginning this afternoon and
continue through Wednesday night. Precipitation looks to taper off
later tonight/early Thursday morning although later shifts will
need to monitor the ending of the advisory.

The active southwesterly flow will continue, with additional
periods of showers/isolated storms expected later Thursday
afternoon into early Saturday. Rainfall axis looks to set up
across southeast OK into northwest AR during this period, with
additional heavy rainfall expected across areas that have received
2-4 inches of rain over the past few days. We`ll likely need flood
headlines, but will hold off for now.

A more pronounced trof axis will swing through the region later
Saturday, with a drying/warming trend expected going into next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  30  47  38 /  30  60  60  60
FSM   42  39  53  47 /  60  50  50  90
MLC   32  32  50  41 /  60  50  60  80
BVO   31  30  43  34 /  30  70  60  50
FYV   37  34  53  43 /  40  40  50  80
BYV   33  32  53  45 /  40  40  40  80
MKO   33  32  50  41 /  40  50  60  70
MIO   32  31  49  39 /  20  50  50  60
F10   31  30  47  39 /  50  50  60  70
HHW   42  37  53  48 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Thursday for OKZ054>067-070-071-073.

     Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning for OKZ049-053-076.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST
     Thursday for ARZ001-002.

     Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning for ARZ020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION.....14



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