Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 301734
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1234 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR ceilings across much of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas will continue to slowly erode and lift back to VFR
conditions this afternoon as a cold front exits the region.
Tonight into Sunday morning...west to northwesterly winds and
few/scattered high clouds should be common across the region.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
This morning an upper low was located over Western Kansas/Western
Nebraska with a surface low over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri.
A trailing cold front off the surface low had positioned itself
from far Eastern Kansas through the far northwest corner of
Arkansas to Southeast Oklahoma and finally into Central/Southern
Texas. Across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...low level
ceilings were rotating through the region around the main upper
low...with drier air trying to wrap into Western Oklahoma.

This afternoon...the cold front will continue to make progress
through far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Ahead of the
front...a limited instability axis interacting with the front will
allow for the potential of a few thunderstorms to be
possible...mainly along and east of a line from far Southeast Le
Flore co in Southeast Oklahoma to Carroll co in Northwest
Arkansas. Severe potentials look to reside east of the CWA this
afternoon where the better destabilization should occur. Any
thunderstorm activity that develops over the far eastern portion
of the CWA should exit by this evening with the departing frontal
boundary. Latest short-term model solutions continue to agree with
this and will thus continue the current pops for today.

Behind the front...the drier air trying to wrap into the upper low
looks to move into and through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas this afternoon/tonight. This should help to erode this
mornings cloud cover from west to east...with periods of sun
possible this afternoon for the CWA. Thus...afternoon temps look
to rebound back into the 70s for most locations. Also behind the
front...surface winds should become westerly 5 to 15 mph.

Morning update will be to adjust sky grids based on the mentioned
above and to tweak temp/dewpoint/wind grids based on current
trends. The rest of the forecast configuration seems to be
handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  68  47  66 /   0  10  30  10
FSM   53  75  54  70 /  10   0  50  20
MLC   50  71  51  67 /   0   0  40  10
BVO   46  66  45  66 /   0  10  30  10
FYV   46  68  48  66 /  10   0  30  10
BYV   48  70  47  65 /  10  10  20  10
MKO   49  70  49  67 /   0   0  30  10
MIO   47  67  47  66 /   0  10  20  10
F10   49  69  50  65 /   0   0  30  10
HHW   55  75  54  71 /   0   0  50  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20


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