Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 142327
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THIS
REGIME AND COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST BRIEF LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK SLIM UNTIL COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OK/KS BORDER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW... IN A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL BRING
CHANCE PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BECOMING DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK..AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SURFACE-H700 OVER WEST TX SOUTHWEST
OK HEADED OUR WAY AS SEEN ON SATELLITE.  CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS WEST-EAST LINE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST OK BACK
INTO NORTH TEXAS.  FIRST PERIOD FORECAST BASED ON THAT
LINE CONTINUING EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  BEST CHANCE
PRECIP LIKELY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 412 AND INTERSTATE 40.

MONDAY FORECAST  DEALS WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION
EAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS..AND THEN WEST TO EAST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS  SOUTHERN KANSAS  SAGGING INTO
NORTHEAST OK LATE DAY.   FRONT LIKELY TO PROGRESS SOME
SOUTHEAST  MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING  OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BUILDING RIDGE  OVER ROCKIES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
QUICKENS /  SHARPENS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING MARGINAL
POP EVENTS. FINALLY BY FRIDAY RIDGE GAINS CONTROL FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14






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