Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 271628
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1128 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level low pressure was centered near the KS/NE border late
this morning. At the surface, low pressure was located near
Lincoln, NE with a Pacific cold front extending south of the low
across E OK. The front will continue to slide east across E OK
into NW AR as the upper/surface low pressure lifts E/NE. An
isolated storm or two is possible ahead of the front over NW AR
before the front clears the area. Despite the fact that the
quality moisture was shunted well south by outflow from last
night`s storms...enough moisture is still present to yield some
instability in the presence of sufficient deep layer shear.
Thus...a limited risk of severe hail/wind can`t be ruled out just
yet thru the midday and early afternoon hours. Storm chances
should be done by mid to late afternoon.

I made no major tweaks to the forecast temps. Some tweaks were
made to cloud cover. Updated text products have been sent.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR cigs will occur at times for the first few hours of this TAF issuance.
Cigs should mix out some by mid morning as slightly drier air
continues to work into the region. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail at all sites from about mid morning on. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible across far eastern OK and northwest AR
this afternoon. Coverage is expected to remain too low for TAF
inclusion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strongest convection has shifted east of the forecast area and all
watches/warnings have expired. Have noted some gusty winds across
eastern OK in the pressure fall region along the backside of the
precipitation shield...although these will diminish over the next
few hours. Will take a quick look at radar before deciding on PoPs
for today...but will likely keep slight chances for northwest AR
and far eastern OK as isolated redevelopment isn`t completely out
of the question.

Better low-level moisture will be temporarily shunted south and
east of the area tonight into Thursday. The next upper low will
begin to eject out of the desert southwest later Thursday...with a
warm front (along with improving low-level moisture) lifting into
southern OK late Thursday into Thursday night. A strengthening
low-level jet/warm-air advection should result in elevated
convection later Thursday night from western into southern
OK...and expect precipitation to eventually spread into most of
the forecast area by Friday morning. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible later Friday along the dryline from
southwestern OK into central TX...with the activity spreading east
by Friday evening. The overall better severe weather chances
should remain a little southwest of the area...but there will be
at least a limited risk of severe storms (and locally heavy
rainfall)...especially across southeast OK.

An active westerly/southwesterly upper flow will persist through
the weekend and into early next week. Look for seasonally cool
temperatures and at least low chances of precipitation into
Monday.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  51  80  57 /  10   0   0  30
FSM   84  55  85  60 /  20  10   0  20
MLC   79  53  84  63 /  10   0   0  40
BVO   76  49  77  53 /  10  10   0  30
FYV   77  49  79  54 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   77  51  79  54 /  20  10   0  10
MKO   78  53  80  58 /  10  10   0  30
MIO   75  49  77  55 /  10  10   0  10
F10   77  53  81  60 /  10   0   0  40
HHW   82  55  84  63 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30



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