Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 200054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
754 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Ridging prevails aloft over the south central part of the country
this evening. A surface trough/dryline was located out over west
TX and far western OK, where a few isolated storms developed this
afternoon. It was a rather toasty afternoon that saw Fayetteville
set a record high of 81 degrees. A persistent south winds and
higher dewpoints will lead to a rather mild night tonight, and
will precede a potentially record setting, dare I say it, hot day
on Monday.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An unseasonably warm day today with temperatures nearing the 90
degree mark at several locations. Warm front currently looks to
extend from north-central Missouri southward into NW Arkansas
and down towards New Orleans, and shows up quite well in visible
satellite imagery with abundant cu field in the warm sector.
Surface trough continues to deepen over the High Plains with cold
front working its way southward out of the Northern Plains.

The warm temperatures will continue into Monday with broad ridge
in place over much of the Central Plains and Midwest. Thermal ridge
placement will extend over the area Monday with 850mb
temperatures of 15-20C. Steep lapse rates will allow these warmer
temperatures to mix down to the surface. Fire concerns remain
heightened with models bringing in a bit drier air mixing in from
the west. Convection chances look low as front nears the region,
but with a bit cooler air at mid-levels the higher terrain of NW
Arkansas could see a storm or two late afternoon and early
evening.

Cold front will stall over the area, but models place it a bit more
north along the NE OK/SE KS border. This would allow Tuesday afternoon
temperatures to remain well about normal south of the boundary
with a sharp gradient to cooler temperatures on the northern side.
Cooler temperatures work in by Wednesday but quickly rebound by
Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop along the
front as several weak shortwaves move through the flow.

Vigorous trough ejecting out of the desert southwest late in the
week looks to bring a decent chance for thunderstorms...with the
possibility of severe. Models have come into better agreement
with placement and timing of the trough...with upper low generally
tracking across Kansas and Missouri. Instability axis looks less
than enthusiastic for the CWA with the primary axis across Texas.
Likely scenario would be a developing line of convection moving in
from the west Friday afternoon and evening along the front.
Details will continue to be ironed out over the next several days
as the system becomes better sampled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  92  60  82 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   59  89  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   64  89  63  84 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   60  92  55  77 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   58  85  56  79 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   58  86  58  78 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   61  90  61  83 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   61  88  57  75 /   0  10  10  20
F10   62  90  61  83 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   60  87  60  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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