Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 071613
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1013 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front continued to make progress southeast across Southern
and Central Plains this morning. The front as of mid morning was
positioned from Southwest Oklahoma to just west of Osage county in
Northeast Oklahoma and extended northeast through Eastern
Kansas...Western Missouri...Eastern Iowa into Minnesota. Ahead of
the front...southwesterly winds 10-20 mph...dewpoints in the 30s
and increasing high cloud cover were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. Behind the front...dewpoints in
the 20s with northwesterly winds 10-20 mph were being observed.

This cold front will enter into the CWA over the next hour or so
and push through the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty
northwesterly winds in the range of 20 to 35 mph and falling
dewpoints will increase fire weather dangers through this
afternoon across the CWA. Locations mainly along and northwest of
Interstate 44 continue to look like the greater locations for very
high fire dangers as the the stronger winds and lower min relative
humidities should be co- located. Any ongoing wildfires...could
quickly spread with the wind shift behind the front this afternoon.
Thus...will continue with the current fire danger statement
through this afternoon as high temperatures should help to keep
conditions just below red flag criteria.

The colder air seemed to be lagging behind the front...which
should allow for afternoon temps to warm into the 50s with some
low 60s possible across the CWA. Thus...for morning update...have
added minor tweaks to temps/dewpoint/wind grids based on latest
trends and adjusted for the cloud cover. The rest of the current
forecast seems handling well for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  31  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   61  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   61  30  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   56  28  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   55  31  40  22 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   59  30  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   58  29  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  31  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   61  32  53  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07


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