Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 271802
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1202 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT MLC

LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO LOW
END MVFR WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH ANY MODERATE
SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING MLC/FSM. CEILINGS WILL STAY LOW
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AGAIN...VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOWFALL...MAINLY AFFECTING
BVO/FYV/XNA/ROG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW HAD PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE
COMMON WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER CHANCES STILL
LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE AROUND ONE INCH...WITH
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO FIGHT
THROUGH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL
ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION TO A COUPLE TENTHS. CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL LET THE
ADVISORY RUN AS IS. MOST OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CHANCES THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
THE REGION.

THE COLD AIRMASS COMBINED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STILL POSSIBLE. MORNING
UPDATE WILL BE TO TWEAK HOURLY POP/TEMP GRIDS AND ALSO SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...16





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