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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
MAY KEEP CEILINGS HEIGHTS ABOVE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT SHOULD STAY
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND ON
BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT/IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL DEPEND HOWEVER ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE LOCATED IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOTED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ACROSS MORE OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 MAY SEE DRYLINE
STORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL
PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY...WHEN MORE DRYLINE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM OF NOTE. THERE WOULD
BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHEN WIND FIELDS ARE STRONGER.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTNUE TO LOOK INTERESTING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ALONG
A COLD FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE
PATTERN...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND STRENGTHENED WIND FIELDS ALL
SUGGEST AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS FAR
EAST...EVEN MORESO THAN DURING THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12