624
FXUS64 KTSA 080523
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Quiet weather is likely for most of the night, although potential
for early morning showers and thunderstorms ahead of an
approaching cold front remains toward day break in northeast
Oklahoma. Earlier activity in southeast Oklahoma and into
southwest Arkansas remains more likely to stay east of the
forecast area given recent CAM runs. The going forecast remains on
track and an update is not planned this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue Wednesday morning
in the vicinity of the warm front and the advancing cold front across
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. There will continue to be
adequate instability and deep layer shear for these storms to be strong
to severe with large hail the main concern. However, any storms that can
get rooted in the boundary layer will be capable of producing damaging winds
and even a tornado. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated through the day
in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the remainder of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Any of these that develop during the
afternoon and early evening will have the potential to be severe with all
modes of severe weather possible. The storm potential comes to an end Wednesday
evening as the cold front exits the region.

Thursday through Sunday is forecast to be mostly dry with only a few showers/storms
possible across far southeast Oklahoma on Thursday as a storm system grazes the area to
the south. Otherwise, high pressure is expected to prevail. The next chance of
showers and storms arrives Sunday night and continues into early next week as
an upper level low drifts over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR elements will prevail for the first 6 hours or so of the
valid period at all sites except KMLC where an increase in MVFR
cigs before 12z is likely. Will also include WS remark at all
sites through the 12z-15z time period. A cold front will be moving
into the area after 12z, with a brief tempo group in for -TSRA
for KTUL and KRVS will be maintained for storms that may develop
along the boundary. Better chances for storms will come later this
afternoon and will include prob30 groups at the remaining sites.
Once the front passes winds will become NW with prevailing VFR TAF
elements for the remainder of the period.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  54  79  52 /  50  10   0   0
FSM   87  59  83  56 /  50  40  10  10
MLC   86  59  81  55 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   82  49  77  48 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   84  54  79  49 /  60  30  10  10
BYV   83  53  77  50 /  70  30  10  10
MKO   84  54  77  52 /  40  10  10   0
MIO   81  51  75  49 /  50  10   0   0
F10   85  54  77  53 /  30  10  10   0
HHW   85  62  82  57 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23