Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191149
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor shows a strong upper level storm system
now moving east of Baja. This upper trough will move toward the
southern Plains this afternoon, providing the forcing for showers
and thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Texas by tonight.

Skies cleared out last night just before sunset and this allowed
strong radiational cooling to occur. Temperatures bottomed out in
northeast Oklahoma in the upper 30s to lower 40s early this
morning and areas of dense fog have developed across portions of
the area. We elected not to issue a dense fog advisory given the
varying nature of the observations. It is mentioned in the zones
and hazardous weather outlook.

Temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday
as winds become more southerly and lose some of the upslope
component. There has been a low deck of clouds across southeast
Oklahoma but overall there should be less low clouds than
Saturday. High clouds associated with the warm conveyor of the
approaching system are already spreading across western Oklahoma.

The better instability and forcing remain west of the area
today...so any (significant) precipitation is not expected til
this evening. The threat of severe weather is quite
limited...given that any storms affecting eastern Oklahoma tonight
will likely be elevated. The entire area is expected to receive
rain tonight through Monday...with precipitation ending from west
to east by Monday night.

The rest of the week will be quite warm with temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s. Fire weather hazards will ramp up on Wed- Fri
with increasing winds and temperatures running 20+ degrees above
normal.

The next frontal system will approach by late Thursday into
Friday. This looks like a strong winter storm for the Upper
Midwest, but for our area, it will just mean increased fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  60  69  46 /  20  80  40  10
FSM   73  57  67  52 /  10  70  80  30
MLC   72  59  69  46 /  20  80  50  10
BVO   70  57  71  41 /  10  80  40  10
FYV   72  58  65  46 /  10  70  80  30
BYV   73  58  69  48 /  10  50  80  40
MKO   70  56  68  46 /  20  80  60  10
MIO   72  60  69  47 /  10  60  60  10
F10   71  58  69  47 /  20  80  40  10
HHW   71  61  69  50 /  20  80  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CORFIDI

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06


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