Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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545
FXUS64 KTSA 230857
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main items of interest in this forecast package are: 1)
Winds/fire weather Today and Friday, 2) Record or near record
warmth Today followed by big changes to close out the week, and
finally 3) Increasing rain/storm and eventually severe weather
potential early next week.

After putting the latest data from the RAP for today`s dewpoint
and wind forecast, the current Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded
to a Red Flag Warning and also expanded to include McIntosh and
Pittsburg counties. The RAP tends to outperform other guidance on
days like this where deeper mixing of drier air down to the
surface causes dewpoints to drop off. This will put RH values down
near 25 percent this afternoon, given forecast highs in the mid
80s. In addition, forecast 925 mph winds in the 25 to 30 kt range
suggest winds will be strong enough to cause significant fire
spread concerns. Fire weather will remain a concern into Friday
behind the cold front, with drier air and breezy conditions.

The low level thermal ridge will nose right up into eastern OK
this afternoon ahead of a cold front. The current band of high
clouds, generated from flow over the Rockies, should abate later
today per latest WV imagery showing drier air aloft rounding the
base of the approaching shortwave trough. Based on this it is not
likely that clouds will have a significant impact on the
temperature forecast. For this reason, the high temp forecast will
be a few degrees higher than yesterday, which overachieved in some
spots as well. Some records are likely to fall today. A cold front
will push thru the region tonight into Friday, bringing an abrupt
change to the unseasonable warmth. Forecast highs on Saturday will
be 30 to 35 degrees colder than today`s forecast highs. Sub-
freezing lows are expected for most areas Friday night, and again
in some areas Saturday night. The colder weather will not last
long however.

The progressive and quite active upper flow pattern over the CONUS
will continue into next week. Our area will reside beneath the
upper jet stream at the base of broad cyclonic flow over the
western 2/3rds of the nation. A pair of waves embedded in this
flow will bring increasing rain/storm chances early next week. The
first wave will increase lift north of a warm front near the Red
River Sunday night into Monday. PoPs have been increased to likely
across much of the region as this signal remains consistent in the
model data. This round of precip should end by Monday afternoon
and Monday night should be quiet ahead of the second and more
potent wave. The warm sector will overspread the region ahead of
the second system. Shear and instability will be more than
sufficient for severe weather ahead of the dryline/cold front late
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. All modes of severe weather are
possible. Spring appears to have arrived early this year.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  46  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   85  52  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   83  48  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   85  43  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   79  50  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   78  54  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   82  48  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   80  47  55  24 /  10  10   0   0
F10   85  46  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   82  52  69  34 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this
     evening for OKZ054-055-059-060-064>066-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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