Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 082104
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
304 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest winds and corresponding heightened fire weather
concerns will continue through late afternoon before conditions
begin to improve into the evening hours. Will allow the Wind
Advisory to continue through the original expiration with no
extension necessary. Flurries ongoing in northwest Arkansas and
perhaps the far northeast corner of Oklahoma should also diminish
into the evening so will not extend mention of flurries into the
evening hours.

Conditions tomorrow should be similar to today`s, although winds
will be a bit less breezy, leading to a slight improvement in the
overall fire danger. Much warmer temperatures will arrive
Wednesday, especially for parts of eastern Oklahoma, as winds
become more west to southwest in advance of an approaching front.
The airmass immediately behind this front is not significantly
colder than the one preceding it, with the main change being a
shift to light northerly winds.

A much stronger front will move into the region Friday night and
into Saturday with below normal temperatures and very low dew
points to follow. Medium range models are more consistent on this
than they have been in the past few days. The cold air will not
last very long, as the trailing surface high quickly pushes into
the eastern half of the country.

The only chance of precipitation during the next week will be
across eastern portions of the forecast area late Sunday afternoon
and into Sunday evening with a fast moving upper level system.
Temperatures may be cold enough that some of the precipitation may
fall as snow in northwest Arkansas before it ends. Chance of
wintry impacts are low at best.

Next week is likely to start on a warm note with a quick return to
strong southerly winds by Monday and more zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  48  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   28  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   30  51  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   24  39  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   27  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   24  43  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   29  50  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   30  53  29  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....22


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