Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 262339
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
539 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/VFR cigs will gradually become IFR behind cold front, which is
about to pass through KBVO at this time. Once cigs go IFR at each
site, will be hard pressed to improve this period. Expect the front
through Tulsa area about 03z, KMLC about 06z, and nwrn AR sites about
12z. Widespread light rain will result in mainly MVFR vsbys with
moderate/heavy showers embedded will decrease vsby to IFR category.
Some elevated instability apparent in forecast soundings so chances
of TSRA will be nonzero but too low to mention in TAFs at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015/
There has been very little change in the forecast reasoning. The
NAM and GEM have both trneded slightly warmer in the northwest
part of the forecast area which lessens the ice potential
somewhat, but it will still be a close call there. Most likely
there will be several hours of temperatures right at 32 in western
Osage and possibly western Pawnee counties from late Friday
afternoon until mid morning Saturday with light precipitation
The main concern continues to be the heavy rainfall which will
result in both flash flooding and river flooding. Southeast
Oklahoma into west central Arkansas continues to be most under the
gun, with widespread 6 to 9 inch rainfall amounts likely in that
area through the weekend, with locally higher amounts possible.
Amounts will taper to the north with 3 to 4 inches likely
northwest of Interstate 44. The current flood headlines will
continue as is.
Once this system clears out early next week, dry weather with
seasonable temperatures will prevail through the middle part of
Used the NAM12 for the temperature forecast through Sunday due to
its superior handling of shallow cold air.
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ049-053-
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for OKZ056>058-
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-