Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 170433
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1133 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Will include VCTS
for the hours between 10z and 14z at the NE OK sites given possible
convection that would be associated with an approaching surface
front and mid level moisture axis. Scattered convection may remain
ongoing across parts of the same areas into the afternoon...however
low confidence in timing and coverage will preclude any further
mention after 14z with this issuance.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 934 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Several areas of convection remain ongoing in proximity to the
forecast area, and short term solutions suggest that an uptick in
convective coverage across NE OK is likely later tonight. Despite
the stabilizing boundary layer, the presence of a subtropical
moisture plume extending through the Southern Plains and remnant
convectively enhanced waves give credence to the short term
solutions. The overall extent of the overnight convection is more
uncertain and the current forecast is a good start with higher
chances across NE OK and lower with southward extent. Updated
forecast will make only minor adjustments.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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