Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 270816
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM/BREEZY DAY ON TAP BEFORE WE RETURN TO
MORE FALL LIKE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG
CAP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPS AS
UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ONLY A NARROW WINDOW THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT BEST. PRIMARILY SHOWERS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ONLY LIMITED QPF AMOUNTS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD SOUTH
WITH FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE ARKLATX REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. COOL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE COOL WEATHER
PERSISTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN/
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  54  71  45 /  10  50  10   0
FSM   85  61  73  47 /   0  60  40  20
MLC   82  58  71  48 /   0  40  20  10
BVO   85  50  70  40 /  10  50  10   0
FYV   80  54  68  42 /  10  60  20  10
BYV   82  54  68  43 /  10  60  20  10
MKO   84  56  71  45 /  10  60  10   0
MIO   83  52  68  43 /  10  60  10   0
F10   83  56  71  47 /  10  50  10   0
HHW   84  63  73  52 /   0  40  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12





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