Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 290834
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
334 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A closed low pressure system remained located over/near the Ohio
River Valley early this morning...while a ridge of high pressure
resided over the western third of the CONUS. Between these two
systems...north- northwesterly upper level flow on top of surface
high pressure was observed across much of the Plains. In
response...light northerly winds transporting cooler and drier
air along with mostly clear skies were common across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

The synoptic features and conditions mentioned above are expected
to remain nearly unchanged over the next couple of days as the
closed low continues to hold near the Ohio River Valley.
Thus...northerly surface winds and slightly below seasonal average
temperatures with highs in the 70s are forecast for the CWA today
and Friday. A little more cloud cover could be possible by Friday
into Saturday as the closed low looks to shift slightly westward.

The closed low is progged to finally begin to lift northeast over
the weekend...with surface high pressure and the upper ridge out
west shifting eastward. This will allow for a warming trend to
develop into next week as southerly winds to return to the CWA
Sunday. Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days of this
forecast package with highs back above the seasonal average.
Also...during the first part of next week...southerly winds
transporting moisture back into the region is forecast to interact
with a wave that latest model solutions indicate pushing into the
Plains Tuesday/Wednesday. Thus...shower and thunderstorm chances
will become possible for the CWA during the middle part of the
week before the wave and its associated cold front move through
the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  50  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   77  51  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   75  50  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   72  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   70  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   71  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   73  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  49  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
F10   74  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  53  78  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....20


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