Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 241107
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
507 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFS, VFR conditions will prevail into tonight at all
sites. Southerly winds will increase and become gusty during the
day today, affecting all sites. MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop in eastern Oklahoma early wednesday morning, affecting
those sites beginning by around 9Z.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015/
Today will be the last good weather day for this week...so enjoy.
Highs will reach the 60s again with breezy south winds. Clouds
increase tonight...and we will likely not see the Sun again until
A very wet holiday and the following weekend are in store. A
strong piece of energy is diving down the West Coast attm...and
will carve out a deep positive tilt western CONUS trough later
this week...as a very amplified upper ridge builds north along the
west coast of NOAM up into AK...Yukon and the Northwest Territory.
This will allow a strong cold front to plunge south down the
Plains. The combination of the deep upper trough to our
west...which will allow for unseasonably moist air to lift into
our region...and a strong cold front which will provide a
mechanism to lift this moisture will bring periods of heavy rain
to the region beginning late on Thanksgiving and continuing into
the first part of the weekend. PW values are forecast to be more
than 3 times normal for this time of year. The data has been
consistent in painting swaths of large qpf over our area for
several days...thus the heavy rain and flooding threat may be the
biggest issue with this system. Flood watches will likely be
needed in the next day or so.
Low level thermal profiles have trended warmer the past few
runs...so at this time it does not appear that this storm will
bring winter weather impacts to our area. However...it is
important to note that details such as the location of the
freezing line are tough to predict several days out...so continue
to monitor the latest forecasts as this time nears.
The rains will finally come to an end as the weekend comes to a
close as the large western CONUS trough shifts east.