Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 131458
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAKING SOME MINOR UPDATES TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY. NO
CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPS AND POPS. WILL LOOK CLOSER AT THIS
LATER.

CURRENTLY...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS AND
LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE MORNING.

BIGGER CONVECTIVE THREAT IS THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...2-5 PM...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...VICINITY TULSA AREA AND SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD. THESE WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...40-50 MPH.
THESE SHOULD REACH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND OR AFTER 00Z...HENCE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THIS EVENING. OF COURSE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE SCATTERED WELL EAST OF THE FRONT AND
DRYLINE. BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK BETWEEN THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  38  47  29 /  80  70  40   0
FSM   75  48  50  31 /  60  90  40  10
MLC   76  41  46  30 /  60  80  20   0
BVO   78  39  46  25 /  80  30  50   0
FYV   71  39  43  26 /  60  90  50  10
BYV   72  39  42  26 /  60  80  50  10
MKO   74  41  46  28 /  60  90  40   0
MIO   75  37  44  26 /  70  80  50   0
F10   75  40  45  29 /  70  90  30   0
HHW   76  46  50  31 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....05






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