Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 272318
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
618 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KFSM AND
SOUTHEAST OF KMLC EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAS
MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEAST.
MAY YET SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUS WILL CARRY LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH 20 PERCENT IS LIKELY
OVERKILL GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE. A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROF TO
OUR EAST. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS
TO BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST IN SOME PLACES IF WIDESPREAD RAIN
DOES INDEED OCCUR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S...WHICH IS STILL 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   71  89  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   71  89  65  88 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   63  88  61  87 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   63  84  58  84 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   63  83  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   68  88  63  87 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   63  86  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
F10   69  88  65  88 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   72  90  67  88 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18




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