Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241540
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1040 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A warm and breezy day is unfolding across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as a strong upper level disturbance crosses the
Rockies into the Plains late this morning. Wind gusts today should
approach 35-40 mph in parts of northeast Oklahoma but do not
expect widespread 40 mph or greater gusts given the current winds
on the KINX VWP. High cloudiness will continue to increase as a
result of the upper flow around the disturbance. Have fine tuned
cloud trends to account for the high clouds. Thunderstorm
potential late this afternoon and evening continues to be focused
north and west of the forecast area, with Osage and Pawnee
counties the most likely to see a storm. Current POPs have this
handled well, with the only change being to delay thunderstorm
potential until 21Z instead of the previous forecast`s 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LLWS will persist for a few more hours for the OK TAF sites.
South winds will pick up this morning and become gusty...with
gusts around 30-35 mph likely during the afternoon. Mainly
VFR conditions...although MVFR cigs may develop areawide late
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Potent mid-level shortwave continues to move across the central
Rockies this morning. VAD profilers indicate that low-level winds
responding with 40-50 knot southerly low level jet in place. Gusty
south winds will result today with a few gusts gusts close to
advisory levels this afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may
develop as far south as northwest OK this afternoon and move
toward northeast OK this evening with limited threat of hail and
winds near the Kansas border.

Increasingly moist but capped airmass will reside over the area
Monday. Isolated storm development possible along the dry line
into central and eastern OK, but given the lack of synoptic forcing
present at that time the overall chances are slim. Still, should
any storms develop the instability and shear would be supportive
of severe weather.

The main event in this forecast period still looks to be Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a strong, negatively-tilted upper low
tracks across the Rockies. Scattered elevated storms may develop
late Monday night or Tuesday morning in vicinity of warm front
lifting north, but at this point does not appear any morning
convection will have a mitigating affect on available instability
during the afternoon. While cap will remain in place along/ahead
of dry line, upper level forcing will likely be able to overcome
this and expect storms to develop along the dry line west of I-35 and
quickly become severe Tuesday afternoon. All modes of severe will
be possible, some significant through Tuesday evening and while it
remains to be seen if this erupts into a full-blown tornado
outbreak, residents of eastern OK should continue to monitor
forecasts very closely. Storms will continue into northwest AR
Tuesday night with some decrease in intensity expected.

Cold front will slowly move through Wednesday with severe weather
potential continuing across far eastern OK and western AR during
the afternoon. Thursday should provide a brief respite in the
unsettled weather as the front pushes southeast of the area, but
another upper low will follow quickly with boundary lifting north
by Friday and Saturday resulting in widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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