Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 161600
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1000 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Very cold temperatures will persist through the day, with
northerly wind speeds leading to reduced wind chills into late
afternoon and evening. Winds will finally calm some overnight,
which will lead to an improvement in the wind chill situation
despite very cold temperatures again tonight. Afternoon
temperatures appear on track given current trends and short term
model guidance. One thing that will have to be watched is the
Wind Chill Advisory as extension in time not out of the question
for areas near the Kansas border, basically where the snow cover
is. Expect an update closer to the noon hour.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 522 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A batch of lower clouds with cigs around 3000 ft will impact the
northwest Arkansas TAFs over the next few hours. Otherwise expect
VFR conditions after 16z. Breezy northwest winds will diminish
late tonight and become light and variable tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Another round of bitterly cold has encompassed much of the central
conus to start off the work week. The arctic front that moved
through the forecast area yesterday has made it all the way to the
Gulf of Mexico early this morning. Bitterly cold air sweeping in
behind the front combined with gusty north winds have allowed
dangerous wind chills of 0 to -15 to develop...thus, the Wind
Chill Advisory will remain in effect through the morning hours. A
swath of wintry precip still in progress across portions NE
Texas, NW Louisiana, and southern Arkansas will gradually move
southward this morning. A few light snow showers or flurries
behind this swath will still be possible across SE Oklahoma this
morning, but little to no accumulation is expected.

Strong surface high will settle into the Plains today keeping arctic
airmass in place. Temperatures will struggle to rise into the
teens and 20s today, and several locations may not even get out of
the single digits. This sets the stage for another cold night
Wednesday, especially for those areas that received snowfall over
the last few days. Temperatures for these areas could be several
degrees lower than areas without snow on the ground. Surface high
will be positioned right over the forecast area overnight tonight
with winds going calm to light. This will also aid in allowing
temperatures to once again fall into the single digits; however, those
locations with snow cover could see temperatures falling several
degrees below zero. A Wind Chill Advisory may also be needed again
tonight, but current forecast conditions are right on the edge of
meeting criteria for several counties given the light winds
expected tonight...thus will hold off for now.

The overall pattern will begin to change Thursday and Friday as
arctic air modifies and shifts eastward with the surface high. A
quick warm-up will ensue as southerly flow returns ahead of the
next shortwave trough. Thursday and Friday will seem quite mild
after this latest cold spell, but Saturday looks downright spring-
like with temperatures looking to top out in the 60s and
potentially some 70s. Moisture will also be on the increase
towards the end of the week helping set the stage for showers,
and maybe some thunderstorms, to develop this weekend as this
vigorous Pacific short-wave ejects out onto the Plains.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ049-054>076.

AR...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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