Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 100819
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
319 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE THAT WERE RECORDED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ALL DESPITE
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A HIGH TO VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING
RED FLAG CRITERIA FROM BEING MET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFFECT
THE AREA. THE FRONT PUSHES BACK THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT.

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL FEEL THE AFFECTS OF A
WEATHER 1-2 PUNCH AS A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY/SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. A
LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  54  78  60 /  10  10  20  10
FSM   84  57  79  57 /  10  10  30  10
MLC   83  59  78  60 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   85  50  78  57 /  10  10  20  10
FYV   79  53  74  55 /  10  10  30  10
BYV   80  53  73  56 /  10  10  30  10
MKO   83  55  77  58 /  10  10  20  10
MIO   83  51  75  58 /  10  20  30  10
F10   84  57  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   82  56  76  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10





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