Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 221136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLE
WITH PRECIP THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST WAVE OF SEVERAL PRODUCING PRECIP OVER WESTERN OK
AT THIS TIME. PRECIP COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WHILE CROSSING FORECAST AREA TODAY SO HIGHEST
POPS WEST AND LOWEST EAST. CHANCE POP TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH.

MUCH  STRONGER DYNAMICS  COME INTO PLAY  LATE SATURDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  WESTERN UPPER LOW SHARPENS
BACKING UPPER FLOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALES ONCE AGAIN IN 1.7 - 1.9
NEIGHBORHOOD. LOTS OF THUNDER...LOTS OF RAIN...LOTS OF
FLOODING ALMOST GUARANTEED GIVEN THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF
ABNORMALLY WET WEATHER. RIVER FLOODING AS WELL.

LONG TERM FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE RELIEF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
GW

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...12




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