Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290200
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
900 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight
across southeastern Oklahoma as isentropic lift increases across the
area as a warm front advances north into northern Texas. The instability
and shear will be adequate for some of the thunderstorms to become strong
to severe with large hail the concern. Current forecast for tonight is
on track.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue through much of tonight w/ lowering
ceilings from south to north as moisture streams northward late
tonight through Friday. Widespread convection is also expected
much of the day Friday...and when combined with expected
ceilings...flight conditions will lower into widespread low MVFR
to IFR conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture starting to lift back north out of southeast
Texas this afternoon ahead of upper low currently moving through the
desert southwest. Low level jet will begin to increase across north
Texas and southeast Oklahoma tonight as upper low moves into the
four corners region by 12z Friday. In response, elevated strong
thunderstorms will likely develop/spread north into southeast
Oklahoma late tonight. This activity will continue across the
remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday
morning with a damaging wind/large hail threat. Along with the
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall will be likely, especially
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas south of
Interstate 40. Given the relatively low flash flood guidance, a
flash flood watch will be issued for aforementioned area.

Overall tornado threat will likely depend on how far north warm
front lifts into southeast Oklahoma Friday afternoon. If the
morning convection is too widespread or lingers into the afternoon
hours, the warm front would likely remain further south near the
red river. Any breaks in the thunderstorm activity would allow for
sufficient destabilization to support supercell thunderstorms
given the increasing deep layer shear. In addition, any residual
boundaries would support an enhanced tornado threat, especially
given the low LCL heights expected. Regardless, a severe/heavy
rainfall threat will continue Friday evening into the overnight
hours as the main upper low lifts into the central plains.

Thunderstorm should be begin to shift east of the region Saturday
morning. A few lingering widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Saturday afternoon before the cold front sweeps through Saturday
evening.

Cool conditions expected Sunday into the early part of next week as
surface high pressure builds over the region with temperatures
remaining near or below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  73  62  76 /  50  80  80  20
FSM   60  75  63  80 /  50  90  80  50
MLC   62  74  61  78 /  70  90  80  20
BVO   52  72  57  75 /  40  80  80  10
FYV   54  70  60  76 /  30  80  80  50
BYV   54  69  59  77 /  20  80  80  50
MKO   57  73  61  75 /  50  80  80  20
MIO   54  72  59  75 /  30  80  80  20
F10   57  73  61  76 /  60  80  70  20
HHW   61  76  65  80 /  80  90  80  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for OKZ049-053-073>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Friday through Saturday morning
     for ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10


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