Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 231724
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 18Z TAF forecast can be found below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Cold fropa from N to S across the region this afternoon. Brief
period of MVFR cigs possible just behind the front. Storm chances
greatest for the W AR and SE OK sites. Will monitor elevated
convection across KS that is forecast to weaken. Tempos may be
needed for the NE OK sites if convection holds together. Sfc winds
will shift to north then northeast behind the front, with gusts
near 20 kts in some spots. VFR conditions will prevail at all
sites aft 00Z, with a possible exception at KMLC if elevated
convection develops as models suggest.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 934 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

UPDATE...

PoPs have been adjusted downward for the morning hours. Severe
probs have been adjusted upward based on the latest data. See
discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Cold front continues south across Kansas and down into northwest
Oklahoma as of 14Z. This boundary will continue to surge south
thru the day today, and will act as a focus for thunderstorm
activity as the environment ahead of the boundary destabilizes.
There is enough northwesterly shear aloft (~25kts) to support some
multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds and
possibly some marginally severe hail. As a result, severe
probabilities have been raised to suggest at least a limited
severe threat. The latest hi-res CAM solutions suggest that the
better coverage will be after 18Z, and thus the morning PoPs have
been reduced. Updated text products sent.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 610 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Brief MVFR vsbys...early in the TAF period across NW AR this
morning...along with brief LIFR cigs at KFSM. Elsewhere late this
morning..cigs to lower to MVFR in thunder with a passing cold
front. Convection to remain mostly scattered in nature...so
thunder chances will be handled with tempo groups. VFR conditions
return from north to south from afternoon to tonight as drier air
works into the region behind the front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the area today. Low level
convergence along the front will not be that great, but expect at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the
front by around midday into the afternoon hours. The eastern part
of the forecast area will likely see the greatest coverage of
showers and storms, so will carry likely pops in that area this
afternoon. A few strong storms will be possible, but organized
severe weather does not appear likely.

Showers and storms may increase in coverage again overnight across
far southeast Oklahoma near and north of the frontal boundary.
This activity will shift south of the area later Saturday morning
as drier air filters in from the north. A relatively pleasant
weekend by late June standards is then on tap, with dewpoints and
overnight low temperatures well below normal, and daytime highs
slightly below normal.

Warmer and more humid weather will gradually return next week.
There does not appear to be any strong signal for precipitation
until late in the week when another cold front approaches. In
typical summertime fashion though, cannot totally rule out an
isolated shower or storm just about any day next week, but a non-
mentionable 10 percent pop seems most appropriate Monday through
Thursday.

Stayed closest to the ECMWF for temperatures the next few days,
with the GFS and NAM MOS looking a bit cool for daytime highs the
next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  62  85  61 /  50  10   0   0
FSM   91  66  85  61 /  60  30  10   0
MLC   92  66  84  60 /  50  50  10   0
BVO   86  59  84  56 /  30  10   0   0
FYV   84  60  81  54 /  60  20   0   0
BYV   84  60  81  56 /  60  20   0   0
MKO   90  63  84  59 /  50  20   0   0
MIO   85  60  84  58 /  40  10   0   0
F10   90  64  84  61 /  50  40   0   0
HHW   93  69  84  63 /  40  60  40   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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