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000
FXUS64 KTSA 241957
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Cluster of showers north of effective warm front, which was
located a bit south of I-40, continues to move to the east.
Overall, the early evening should remain relatively quiet, but
strengthening low level jet/warm advection pattern later tonight
will cause the boundary to become much more active as it slowly
lifts north overnight. Sufficient elevated instability may be
present for a low threat of large hail, and locally heavy rain
threat will eventually increase later tonight as stronger
lift/heavier precip rates overcome the initial dry low level air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

BLUF: Active weather pattern will persist through much of the
weekend, with multiple rounds of severe weather possible, as well
as increasing heavy rain and flooding potential. Saturday, mainly
evening and overnight, still the featured period for significant
severe weather. Forecast details will continue to be updated in
the coming days.

Fairly widespread convection will continue north of the warm
front Thursday through at least the morning, if not into
afternoon, though waning low level jet support should eventually
allow precip to decrease. By late afternoon, strong negatively
tilted upper shortwave is forecast to cross the Rockies with low
level moisture continuing to spread north east of sharp dry line
over the Panhandles. Any dry line storms will most likely remain
to our west, but a strong signal remains for additional storms to
develop across west TX Thursday night as the Pacific front moves
east. This should eventually spread into north OK by very early
Friday morning. Upper low will be lifting northeast into the
Central Plains, but wind fields remain rather strong, with some
degree of severe threat continuing into Friday morning. Later
Friday more uncertain as storms from the morning could re-
intensify to some degree. As of right now, the dry line/cold front
should remain west of the area, but no strong indications of re-
development near these features noted.

A second potent and negatively tilted upper system is expected to
move across the Southwest and into the Southern Rockies Saturday
setting up a pattern very favorable for severe weather. This
system should also be more favorably timed. Dry line will retreat
back to the west in response by late Saturday, likely becoming the
focal point for development of severe storms. Strong deep layer
wind fields will also be very supportive of all modes of severe
weather. One complicating factor that has been present in some of
the global models (ECMWF especially) is for a weak cap to allow
early initiation of storms, possibly before 18z in western OK/TX,
which could have a mitigating effect on instability. In any case,
forecasts for Saturday afternoon, and especially evening and
overnight should be monitored very closely not only for severe
weather but heavy rainfall and flooding potential as well.


The trend in models remains a slower overall progression of the
Pacific front as the low moves northeast. This lends confidence to
keeping high chances of storms through Sunday, though the severe
potential is more questionable by then. By Monday, most of the
deep moisture should be pushed southeast, with generally tranquil
weather into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The current VFR conditions will gradually worsen as we move
through tonight and into Thursday morning. The potential for
showers and storms to impact area sites will increase tonight
and continue into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  73  63  80 /  80  90  90  70
FSM   59  71  63  77 /  60  70  50  90
MLC   64  78  67  78 /  50  50  70  90
BVO   55  70  60  81 /  90  90  90  70
FYV   54  68  59  75 /  80  90  70  90
BYV   53  63  56  73 /  60  90  60  90
MKO   59  72  62  76 /  70  80  80  90
MIO   56  67  59  75 /  90  90  90  90
F10   61  75  66  79 /  70  70  90  80
HHW   64  78  66  74 /  20  20  40  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10