Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 201737
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1137 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southwesterly
winds of 15 to 20kt...gusting 25-30kt...will continue through the
afternoon before decreasing around 00Z. A front will approach the
northwest terminals KTUL/KRVS/KBVO by late in the period with
winds veering around to westerly then northwesterly behind the
front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Dangerous fire weather conditions today as relative humidity
across the forecast area has quickly dropped into the 30-40%
range this morning and temperatures have already climbed into the
50s as of 10 AM. Given local 12Z ROABs showing a significantly
dry midlevel layer and steep midlevel lapse rates...it shouldn`t
be too difficult to reach the upper limits of Red Flag criteria.
Thus, a Red Flag warning has been issued and will be in effect
from 11 PM through 5 PM. The RAP model currently has a good
handle on surface dewpoints and relative humidity, and have
blended early afternoon dewpoint and RH towards the RAP values.

With decent mixing and gusty south-southwest surface flow...the
area will see temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s.
However, wouldn`t be surprised to see a few locations reach
afternoon highs near 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  43  63  27 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   66  40  64  33 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   65  45  65  32 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   66  37  63  24 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   61  38  62  26 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   61  43  61  29 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   65  41  64  30 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   63  42  60  25 /   0   0  10   0
F10   66  44  63  31 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   64  42  66  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....11



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