Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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085
FXUS64 KTSA 251729
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Thunderstorms will likely develop around 23-01Z west of the
TAF sites...with storms moving into the northeast OK TAF sites
around 03Z. Activity will likely move into northwest AR after
06Z. Expect MVFR conditions to develop into the evening hours
with IFR conditions likely later tonight as the cold front
moves through.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1054 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Forecast for the remainder of the afternoon appears on
track...with breezy south winds and highs generally in
the lower 80s.

Developing cyclone/cold front/dryline system to our west
will shift east through the day...with the front eventually
overtaking the dryline as it approaches the western fringes
of our forecast area. Hi-res models continue to show intial
development across north central into northeast OK around
5-7 pm. Early discrete storms are possible...and forecast
shear profiles look favorable for rotating supercells. Storms
are expected to become more linear with time as they move
through the bulk of northeast OK and possibly northwest AR
into the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  57  41  67 /  50  70  30  10
FSM   67  72  43  75 /  60  80  30  10
MLC   63  65  42  74 /  60  60  20  10
BVO   50  55  38  66 /  60  60  30  10
FYV   62  65  39  66 /  60  80  40  10
BYV   63  70  42  66 /  60  80  40  10
MKO   60  62  40  69 /  60  70  30  10
MIO   55  57  40  67 /  60  70  30  10
F10   58  58  42  71 /  60  60  20  10
HHW   67  72  42  75 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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