Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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807
FXUS64 KTSA 211743
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will continue through much of the day with scattered
light rain spreading into KMLC/KFSM sites by mid to late afternoon.
Scattered storms will develop by late afternoon through mid evening
from southeast OK into northwest AR with brief aviation impacts
possible. Widespread rain tonight will likely result in MVFR to
brief IFR cigs mainly across NE OK into NW AR. Conditions will
improve from west to east after 12Z.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1028 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper system that will bring rain and thunder to the area later today
and tonight currently situated near the four corners region. As lift and
instability increase this afternoon...expected a few
thunderstorms to develop near the red river and move into
southeast OK and into WC/NW AR with the strongest activity being
capable of producing severe hail. Instability will be tempered as
rain increases in areal coverage once this system enters the
southern plains tonight. Rainfall may be locally heavy at times
overnight. First period elements look good...and pops for the
afternoon will be left as is. Updated ZFP already been sent...and
reflects just a few tweaks in increased sky cover and lowering
temps a degree or so where sky cover has already become
established.

Updated ZFP/AFM/PFM already sent.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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