Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 040207
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
907 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ATTM. THE
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION TO SOME EXTENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MINIMUM. THE LATEST DATA FROM THE NAM/HRRR SUGGEST
THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU
12Z...AND THUS NO CHANGE TO THE DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
MADE AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES DO LOOK GOOD ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH HOWEVER.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SO PROB30 GROUPS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED IN THOSE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON THE WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS ARCING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND HELP IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN KS WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND SERVE AS A LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY ON TUES. RESULT BEING A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY
TUES NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY VORT CENTER PASSES...AND GIVEN THE
CURRENT REPRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE IN VAPOR IMAGERY...CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH EXACT PLACEMENT THE UNCERTAINTY. AGAIN HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS FAR NE OK INTO FAR NW AR AS THIS WAVE
PASSES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE HIGH FOR LATE SUMMER...SO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL STANDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS
DELAYED AND/OR MAINTAINED INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY PERIOD OF
WED AFTERNOON/ EVENING.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO PRESS EASTWARD WHICH WILL PUSH
PRECIP CHANCES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPS TO
TREND UPWARD. THE EVENTUAL RAIN FOOTPRINT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE EXTENDED...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  89  73  96 /  10  50  60  40
FSM   74  96  74  95 /  10  30  30  50
MLC   73  95  76  97 /  10  20  10  30
BVO   68  87  68  92 /  10  60  70  40
FYV   67  89  69  88 /  10  30  60  60
BYV   69  89  69  88 /  10  40  60  70
MKO   73  92  73  94 /  10  30  50  50
MIO   71  89  71  89 /  10  40  70  70
F10   74  92  75  96 /  10  30  30  30
HHW   73  98  76  99 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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