000
FXUS64 KTSA 161450
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
950 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH BASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WHERE SOME DECENT RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN
SOME SPOTS /1.69" AT FSM/. I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN TO THE WEST
OF THE AXIS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY BETWEEN NOW AND TONIGHTS EXPECTED MCS ACTIVITY AND AN
ADJUSTMENT TO AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE NECESSARY. THE ONE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE A REMNANT MCV OVER KS FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE ON SATELLITE OR
RADAR OF THIS FEATURE ANY LONGER...SO IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN IMPACT ON AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES
OVER NE OK AND/OR NW AR DOWNSTREAM.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE TAFS TODAY IS TIMING THUNDERSTORMS
AT AREA TAF SITES. HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS APPROACH UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS AND PREVAILING AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH TAIL END OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
WITH MODEST SURFACE HEATING/LIMITED CAP...HOWEVER BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE INSTABILITY/SHEAR
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM LINE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL. ALSO...ANY STORMS THAT
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING GIVEN THE HIGH RAIN RATES EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD SLOWLY DECAY MONDAY MORNING WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO HINTING
AT ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK WITH HOT/MUGGY
CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  70  86  67 /  40  80  70  20
FSM   90  74  85  68 /  40  40  80  30
MLC   90  73  86  68 /  40  60  70  40
BVO   90  68  84  65 /  40  80  60  20
FYV   87  68  80  64 /  40  40  80  20
BYV   86  68  80  65 /  40  40  90  20
MKO   89  71  84  67 /  40  60  80  20
MIO   90  69  83  66 /  40  70  80  20
F10   90  73  85  68 /  40  70  70  30
HHW   91  73  89  70 /  30  40  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30