000
FXUS64 KTSA 131738
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

As of mid morning...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
resided between surface high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast
states and a deepening area of low pressure over Eastern
Colorado/Western Kansas. This area of low pressure is progged to
continue to deepen through the day...thus tightening the pressure
gradient over the region. In response...south to southwesterly
winds will continue to increase this morning with gusts 25 to 35
mph common through the afternoon hours. An isolated gust 40 mph
across Northeast Oklahoma cannot be ruled out as 925-850MB winds
this afternoon are forecast to be around 40KT.

The increasing winds along with mostly clear skies have already
helped temps quickly warm into the 70s for most locations. These
condition will continue to aid afternoon temps climbing into the
80s for much of the CWA. With the gusty winds and warm
temps...afternoon min relative humidity values remain forecast to
fall into the 25-35 percent range which will help to increase fire
weather concerns today. Elevated to near critical grassland fire
spread rates are forecast for this afternoon...with the area of
greater potential across Northeast Oklahoma.

For the morning update...have added minor tweaks to hourly
temp/dewpoint/wind trends to account for latest obs and short
term solutions. Otherwise...the ongoing forecast seems to be
handling well at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Another unseasonably warm day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas on Sunday with highs again in the 80s across much
of the area. The winds will likely be a little weaker on Sunday
as a cold front sags into central/southern Kansas allowing the
pressure gradient to relax some across the area.

With several days of southerly low level flow in the books,
surface dew points are expected to be in the 60s area-wide on
Monday with temperatures still topping out in the 80s. This will
be in advance of of a mid-level low set to emerge from the Rockies
Monday night and sweep across the Plains on Tuesday.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the dry
line across western Oklahoma late Monday afternoon/evening and
spread to the east into the area Monday evening/night as a Pacific
cold front overtakes the dry line. Thunderstorms could linger
across the area in the vicinity of the frontal boundary through
early Tuesday evening. Some of the storms could be severe during
this time with all modes of severe weather possible. There is
still much uncertainty with how this storm system will evolve
early next week. The forecast will continue to be refined as the
event draws closer.

After a relative lull in activity Wednesday, the chances of
showers and storms return Thursday as the next cold front moves
through the region. A few storms could become strong to severe
across southern portions of the area Thursday afternoon in the
vicinity of the cold front. The run of unseasonably warm
temperatures will come to an end on Friday behind the boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Gusty south to southwesterly winds and a few passing high clouds
are expected to continue this afternoon over the CWA. Winds this
evening are forecast to weaken slightly though still remain breezy
for most locations. The exception to this looks to be KFSM where
lighter and perhaps more easterly winds are forecast overnight.
Also overnight...winds aloft will remain gusty and will continue
with low level wind shear for all TAF locations tonight. For
Sunday...breezy to gusty south to southwesterly are again expected
over the CWA. VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   84  58  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   83  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   84  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   83  58  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   82  61  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   83  61  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   83  62  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
F10   83  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   80  58  79  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20