000
FXUS64 KTSA 121826
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
126 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Surface ridge nearly overhead now will slide east of the area by
12Z. Warmer overnight lows will in general be across eastern OK
tonight where south winds return sooner, with the cooler reading
across western AR closer to surface ridge. Regardless, lows will
be considerably warmer than they were last night in the 50s most
places.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Warmer and windier weather will occur this weekend as the surface
ridge slides farther away and lee side troughing strengthens in
advance of next storm system. Not currently expecting advisory
criteria, but it could get close in some spots, especially in the
terrain. Highs will climb into the 80s. While most of the area
has experienced a significant level of green-up recently, areas to
the north and west of Tulsa have not completed the process as of
yet. Thus, fire weather concerns will be greatest here.

A strong upper storm system is still expected to affect the
region Monday into Tuesday, but differences in timing remain
amongst the available guidance. For our area, it`s looking like
more of an evening or overnight event, and depending on the
solution, lingering into Tuesday morning in the east. The dryline
will set up well to the west Monday afternoon where the higher-end
severe potential will exist, at least initially. Typically if the
initiation zone is farther displaced from our area, it reduces
the higher-end severe potential for our area. That`s not saying
there won`t be severe storms in our area, it`s just saying the
probability of higher-end severe decreases. Storm coverage should
increase Monday night as the storm system and associated Pacific
front advance east, and exit our western Arkansas counties Tuesday
morning. Many of these storms could be strong to severe given
favorable atmospheric parameters, though instability will tail off
a bit the farther east you go.

Quiet weather is expected by Tuesday night and continuing into
Wednesday in the wake of this system. Another strong upper level
storm system will dive south and east out of the northern Plains
later in the week, and will force a cold front thru the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. Depending on the quality of
moisture return ahead of this front, another round of severe
weather potential would result. The end of the work week on into
next weekend will see below-average cooler weather behind this
front.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Winds will increase from the south late in the
period, with gusts to near 20kts included at all
sites after 15z except KFSM. Otherwise, VFR TAF
elements will prevail at all sites through the
valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   52  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   58  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   51  85  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   49  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  81  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   53  81  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   52  81  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
F10   57  81  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   53  79  59  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23