006
FXUS64 KTSA 081555
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1055 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Extremely unstable air-mass already in place across much of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this morning. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible across far
northeast Oklahoma along convergent boundary through early
afternoon.

As strong diurnal heating continues thunderstorms will rapidly
develop across far southeast Oklahoma, extending into portions of
northwest Arkansas near or just before 00Z. Instability/shear
profiles suggest baseball to softball size hail will be likely
with a few supercells that develop through early evening. Also,
given the extreme instability, at least some tornado threat will
persist with any deviant cell motions/interactions. Severe
probabilities were increased in aforementioned area with zone
update.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The cold front will stall across central TX on Thursday with the
elevated frontal zone remaining near far SE OK where a low chance
of thunderstorms will exist. Otherwise, dry, cooler, and quiet
weather conditions will overspread the region especially Friday
and Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances steadily increase and spread eastward for
early next week. At this time the pattern does not favor organized
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MVFR cigs will continue to increase at all sites through 15z Will
also include WS remark at all sites through the 14z at all sites
except KMLC. time period. A cold front will be moving into the
area this morning and while isolated TSRA will be possible this
morning, will not include at any NE OK or NW AR sites given the
very low coverage expected. Cigs will lift to VFR categories by
early to mid afternoon. Better chances for storms will come later
this afternoon and/or early evening with the cold front so will
include with prob30 groups across the AR sites. Once the front
passes winds will become NW with prevailing VFR TAF elements for
the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  54  78  53 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   87  61  82  57 /  60  70  10  10
MLC   87  60  81  55 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   82  49  78  49 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   81  54  78  50 /  40  50  10   0
BYV   81  54  77  51 /  60  70  10   0
MKO   83  55  78  53 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   81  51  76  50 /  40  10   0   0
F10   85  55  78  53 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   86  61  82  58 /  60  70  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23