183
FXUS64 KTSA 010932
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
432 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to push south into southeast
Oklahoma early this morning, with scattered activity continuing to
fester across parts of northeast Oklahoma. Convection should wane
as the morning wears on, which will lead to a mainly dry
afternoon, with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to mid
80s. The flood watch for parts of northeast Oklahoma will be
cancelled with this forecast issuance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Convection which develops to our west this afternoon and evening
is likely to organize into one or more convective clusters
overnight and once again translate to the east and southeast. The
heaviest precipitation is likely to remain well to our south
overnight, but some shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
in our area, with the highest chances in southeast Oklahoma.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday into Thursday evening as a cold front pushes into and
across our area, but CAMs suggest that the NBM categorical pops
are too high, so will once again lower them somewhat.

Friday will see a relative lull in convection before shower and
storm chances increase again over the weekend as another frontal
boundary moves across the area. A stronger storm system may move
out into the plains early next week bringing a chance for more
vigorous convection early next week, but the details remain
unclear on this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are in the vicinity and will continue at
times through the night for the northeast OK TAF sites.
Temporarily reduced visibility and low CIGs are possible under any
storms. The main impacts will be heavy rain, gusty erratic winds,
and frequent lightning, but localized hail is possible as well. In
the next hour or so these storms will also spread into the TAF
sites in northwest AR with similar effects. CAM guidance is
inconsistent on how far south these storms will spread, but
impacts may also spread into KMLC and KFSM after about 10Z or so.

Storm activity should diminish after sunrise with breezy southeast
winds but otherwise good aviation conditions for most of the day
Wednesday, though there is a 10-20% chance of a pop up storm just
about anywhere during the day. Storms may again approach the area
from the west in the evening. Some low level wind shear may
develop Wednesday evening but confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  66  78  59 /  50  40  70  60
FSM   85  65  78  64 /  40  20  60  70
MLC   83  66  78  62 /  50  60  60  70
BVO   82  63  77  55 /  40  40  70  60
FYV   81  63  75  59 /  40  20  70  70
BYV   81  65  77  60 /  30  10  70  70
MKO   82  64  76  60 /  50  40  70  70
MIO   79  64  75  58 /  40  20  70  70
F10   82  64  76  61 /  50  60  70  70
HHW   83  65  76  64 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06