000
FXUS64 KTSA 141730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

An area of MVFR ceilings...withing a moisture plume having reached
into Eastern Oklahoma...was common across much of Southeast
Oklahoma this morning. Per latest Satellite imagery...the higher
terrain locations of Southern Le Flore county have kept the cloud
cover from expanding northward...while more scattered to broken
clouds had developed into Pittsburg/Latimer counties. Across the
rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...mostly clear
skies were common with continued south to southwesterly winds over
the CWA. Mid morning temps were in the 70s for much of the CWA while
temps still in the 60s were reported underneath the cloud cover.

Through this afternoon...the low level cloud cover is expected to
become more scattered and from west to east...with some diurnal
cumulus cloud development into Northwest Arkansas as the moisture
plume becomes more oriented southwest to northeast over the CWA.
At the same time...breezy to gusty south to southwesterly winds
are expected to continue over the CWA with gusts of 20 to near 35
mph forecast.

Temperatures this afternoon remain forecast to be warm again with
the south/southwesterly low level flow and 850-mb temps in the
upper teens to around 20C. Thus...high temps in the 80s to around
90 deg continue to look reasonable. The coolest temps...should
remain underneath the scattering of low clouds near the Red
River. The warmest temps look to be in Northeast
Oklahoma...underneath the northeastern portion of the low level
thermal ridge. These conditions this afternoon could allow for
some areas of limited fire weather danger along and west of
Highway 75 in Northeast Oklahoma...as min afternoon relative
humidity values less than 35 percent are forecast.

For the morning update...have added adjustments to temps and sky
cover based on the movement/development of the low clouds. The
rest of the forecast seems to be in good shape at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The trend of unseasonably warm days continues on Monday with high
temperatures again in the 80s across much of the area. The
southerly winds are expected to increase Monday afternoon with
gusts around 30 mph. There could be a few elevated showers and
storms across northeast Oklahoma in advance of the next storm
system.

Showers and storms continue to look likely Monday night into
Tuesday as a mid-level low moves out of the Rockies and across the
Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of
the dry line late Monday afternoon/evening across northwest
Texas/southwest Oklahoma and continue near a Pacific cold front
that will overtake the dryline and spread east Monday night. The
boundary will likely be across central Oklahoma at 12z Tuesday and
across far southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas by 00z
Wednesday. With adequate instability and deep layer shear in
place, some of the storms will have the potential to be strong to
severe with large hail and damaging wind the main concern. The
potential for tornado is very low but not zero with any storm that
can become rooted in the boundary layer near the frontal
boundary.

Fire weather will become a concern Tuesday afternoon behind the
front as dry air surges into the region on the heels of a strong
gusty southwest wind. With afternoon temperatures still topping
out in the 80s and relative humidity values dropping to around 25
percent, near critical Grassland Fire Spread rates are forecast
for much of northeast Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon.

After a bit of a lull in the weather on Wednesday, the chances of
showers and storms return Thursday as a cold front through much
of the area before stalling out near the Red River on Friday.
There will be continued chances of showers Friday and Saturday as
the frontal boundary lingers near the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Mostly clear to some scattered cumulus clouds are forecast across
the CWA this afternoon as the ongoing MVFR ceilings in Southeast
Oklahoma should remain south of the CWA TAF sites. High clouds
then increase this evening through the overnight hours ahead of a
low pressure system moving into the Desert Southwest. A moisture
plume over the region could allow for MVFR ceilings to again
develop/spread into the CWA late tonight and Monday morning. Will
add Tempo groups for timing. By late morning...scattered to broken
mid and high clouds are forecast. Winds through the period start
out breezy/gusty out of the south to southwest...weaken out of the
south tonight and then become breezy southerly winds again Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  65  84  65 /   0   0  20  80
FSM   86  65  85  66 /   0   0   0  50
MLC   86  65  82  64 /   0   0  10  70
BVO   90  62  84  62 /   0   0  20  80
FYV   85  62  84  62 /   0   0  10  50
BYV   85  63  85  65 /   0   0  10  40
MKO   86  65  82  65 /   0   0  10  70
MIO   85  65  83  65 /   0   0  20  70
F10   88  66  82  66 /   0   0  10  80
HHW   80  64  78  64 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...20