000
FXUS64 KTSA 171147
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOG/STRATUS LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15
OR 16Z AS FOG MIXES OUT. VFR BULK OF THE DAY INTO EVENING.
MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT LIKELY AFTER 06Z.
IFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 06Z AT AR SITES KXNA/KFYV/KFSM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ONCE
THE FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDINESS BREAKS UP...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HELP OF SOME SUNSHINE.

RAPID LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BEING THE RESULT OVER
THE WEEKEND. RECENT RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND BUT WILL STILL SEE
READINGS APPROACH 90 IN MANY AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST LATE SATURDAY
AND WILL CARRY LOW POPS IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING IN CASE THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTS THIS FAR EAST. A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION THOUGH ENSURES THAT NOTHING HIGHER THAN A 20%
POP IS WARRANTED.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...LIKELY SEVERE...WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SIGNFICANT
TORNADOES WILL EXIST BOTH EVENINGS...BUT APPEARS MOST LIKELY
MONDAY EVENING.

STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY BUT AT LEAST
LOW STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. RIDGING ALOFT MAY KEEP
STORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER...AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK AT THAT TIME WILL BE LOWER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
FOR LATE MAY.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  70  89  72 /   0  10  10  20
FSM   84  69  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   82  69  87  71 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   83  66  89  70 /   0  10  10  20
FYV   80  63  86  68 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   80  64  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   83  68  87  70 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   82  66  87  71 /  10  10  10  20
F10   82  69  87  71 /   0  10  10  20
HHW   81  68  87  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21