Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212039
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
139 PM MST Thu Mar 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer area-wide through Saturday, then
another storm system Sunday into early next week with cooler
temperatures, strong gusty winds and a chance of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will spread in from the west over the
next 36 hours as a dirty ridge builds overhead Friday afternoon.

Our next weather system is near the Pacific Northwest coast. It
will pick up higher latitude support and strengthen as it pushes
into the Great Basin and intermountain west Saturday and Sunday.
Winds increasing to breezy to locally windy levels Saturday
afternoon ahead of the system, with advisory level windiness
possible Sunday. Keeping an eye out for areas of blowing dust
over the weekend.

The first impulse will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain
snow mainly Sunday morning, with spottier areas of precip in the
afternoon as that piece ejects quickly into New Mexico. The
strongest segment of the storm will push across SE AZ Sunday
evening into Monday morning, with our best chance of precip area-
wide as well as better precip amounts.

This one could end up being a tad cooler than recent systems, with
snow levels as low as 5k ft and accumulations above 6k ft. Sunday
and Monday storm totals in the mountains in the 3-10 inch range,
with around 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch of rain in valleys. Still
thinking we could end up with more. A good hybrid trajectory for
the system with decent moisture fields. Potential right-rear jet
dynamics with first impulse early Sunday, then left front for
second impulse later Sunday suggested by NAEFS.

We may be dealing with a mean trough position over the area the
first half of the new week before high pressure nudges in from the
west Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/12Z.
SCT clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL thru 22/01Z, mainly east of KTUS. Aft
22/02Z, SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL areawide. SFC wind 10-20
kts with gusts 20-30 kts, falling to less than 10 kts after
22/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions across southeast Arizona through
Saturday. High temperatures will warm to 4-6 degrees above normal
Friday and Saturday, then fall back to 10-15 degrees below normal
Sunday and Monday. 20-foot winds will be near or below 15 mph and
diurnal in nature through Friday. Minimum RHs lower to 8-15
percent Friday and Saturday. A storm system will then move into
the region Saturday night through early next week, resulting in
strong and gusty winds, much cooler temperatures, precipitation
chances and higher relative humidity values. 20-foot winds will be
southwest to west on Saturday at 20-25 mph and gusts to around 35
mph, with even stronger winds expected on Sunday. While min RH
values on Saturday will be at or below critical thresholds, fire
danger levels are currently in the low to moderate category, so no
Fire Weather Watches and/or Red Flag Warnings are anticipated at
this time. Min RH values will then increase to well above critical
thresholds on Sunday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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