979
FXUS65 KVEF 090821
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
120 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty north winds will continue this morning before
starting to relax this afternoon. There will be a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in Lincoln County today. Those chances
expand to include more of the higher terrain of southern Nevada,
northwest Arizona and Inyo County Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
will rebound back to near-average Saturday, and will continue to
increase through the middle of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Saturday night.

Piece of energy associated with the broad trough encompassing the
Rockies and High Plains is progged to break off and develop into a
cutoff low over Utah today. Our area will continue to feel those
gusty north to northeast winds this morning before winds begin to
weaken this afternoon. Strongest winds will again be confined to the
lower CRV, especially the Laughlin/Bullhead City area. Guidance not
as strong as yesterday at KIFP but gusts around 40 mph will be
common between 2am and noon. Elsewhere gusts will range between 20
and 30 mph. Wind speeds will not be as great Friday and Saturday
while the wind direction stays out of a northwest to northeast
direction.

Secondly, there will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening in northern Lincoln and northern Nye
Counties. As the cutoff low drifts westward over southern Nevada
Friday the chance for showers and thunderstorms expands across
Lincoln County, with the slight chance now including more of the
higher terrain of northern Mohave County, southern Nevada as well as
the mountains of Inyo County. Moisture and instability are meager
leading to only light amounts of rain along gusty winds. There may
be a slight downward trend in showers and thunderstorms Saturday as
the cutoff shows signs of slowly weakening and begins to shift back
east more across southern Utah and northern Arizona.

Even under this weak cutoff low, temperatures will warm returning to
near normal on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Wednesday.

Yesterday`s early April-like temperatures will spring board to high
temperature more typical of early June by the middle of next week if
the forecast holds. The stagnant troughing of this week is forecast
to finally come to an end for the latter part of the weekend as the
pattern becomes more progressive. Upstream energy is forecast to
break down the persistent Eastern Pacific and PacNW ridging and
result in warmer temperatures that would climb back to above normal
beginning Sunday and continuing into the middle of next week. The
first 100 degree temperature in Las Vegas is not out of the question
either with a 35% chance of 99 degrees or higher and a 25% chance of
100 degrees or higher based on the 19z NBM probability data. Winds
are forecast to be weaker overall than they have been this week and
mostly confined to afternoon and early evening gustiness.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northerly winds with occasional gusts
to 25kts will continue into the early afternoon before gradually
decreasing.  Directions are expected to turn more to the northeast
(020-050) after 18Z and then remain out of the northeast into Friday
morning.  Speeds should fall below 10kts after sunset this evening,
but expect winds to increase to 12-15kts after sunrise on Friday
morning.  VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with
only FEW-SCT mid and high-level clouds expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most regional TAF sites will see north-to-northeast
winds continue today and tonight. The highest winds are expected in
the CRV, where gusts to 35kts are likely at KIFP and to 30kts at
KEED.  Winds at KBIH should be 12kts or less through sunset but are
expected to increase some overnight, with gusts to 20kts possible
after 03Z.  KDAG will initially see westerly winds, but gusty
northeast winds are expected after 15Z.  More typical westerly winds
will return at KDAG overnight.  VFR conditions are forecast area-
wide into Friday, with only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 10kft AGL, mainly
over the northern half of the region.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Planz

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