Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FXAK68 PAFC 241326
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
526 AM AKDT THU APR 24 2014

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...SPREADING SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
KODIAK ISLAND. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE
BERING SEA...WITH A NEW NORTH PACIFIC LOW POISED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ABSORBS THE PREVIOUS LOW CENTER WHICH HAD
BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING. THIS IS KEEPING ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE YUKON TERRITORY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. MEANWHILE...THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK BEFORE STALLING AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERALLY CONTINUED TO UTILIZE A
GFS/EC BLEND FOR THE FORECAST WITH SOME NAM INCLUDED EARLY ON FOR
ITS ENHANCED DETAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AS THE NEXT EASTERLY WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE KENAI PENINSULA...WHERE A FEW GLANCING SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THIS WAVE WILL
ALSO SERVE TO ENHANCE GAP FLOWS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE KNIK
RIVER VALLEY. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE GULF
COAST TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IN STORE THIS
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
FRI AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES OVER THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
DELTA FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL PERSIST OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
THROUGH SUN AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE BERING TROUGH AND THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW
TODAY WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THAT PERSIST INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST AND END SHOWERS OVER THE WEST BY SUN. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND THEN
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW THAT PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXTENDED MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE EC.
THE KAMCHATKA LOW THAT HAD BEEN FEATURED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NO MORE...SINCE IT WILL RAPIDLY CURVE AND HEAD FOR EASTERN RUSSIA
SUN AND MON...WITH ONLY A WEAK FRONT ENTERING THE BERING.
INSTEAD...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING UNTIL A
NORTH PACIFIC LOW REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE AND THEN
MOVES INTO THE BERING WHERE IT STALLS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. BY MIDWEEK A LOW BEGINS HEADING TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE AKPEN.

THESE FEATURES WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BERING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND THEN SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WIND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. IN THE EAST...EXCEPT FOR RAIN EARLY OVER KODIAK
ISLAND...SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 170 172 173 174 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

$$

CB/DS APR 14



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