Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 301822
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
122 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VORT MAX OVER NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHEAST AND EAST ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE OR SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WE ALSO HAVE SOME 850 MB
AND 700 MB CONFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. BELIEVE THAT WE HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SOME INTENSE RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE MORE STABLE AFTER THE
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVES EAST...SO THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN SEEMS LESS LIKELY THERE.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH OFF
AN ON CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  84  66  83  65 /  60  50  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  68  86  66  85  66 /  40  50  40  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  83  63  86  63 /  70  50  50  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  87  68  85  68 /  60  50  40  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              67  88  67  88  66 /  60  50  30  20  30
CANYON TX                  66  86  66  86  65 /  60  40  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               69  87  68  85  67 /  50  30  20  30  20
DALHART TX                 66  87  65  89  65 /  70  60  40  20  30
GUYMON OK                  66  86  65  87  65 /  60  60  50  20  20
HEREFORD TX                67  88  66  88  66 /  60  40  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                69  86  68  84  67 /  40  50  40  20  30
PAMPA TX                   66  83  65  82  65 /  60  50  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                69  88  67  84  67 /  40  30  30  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              70  90  69  85  68 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

17/15





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