Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221127
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
427 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS IN THE 40`S
FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR CHRISTMAS WE
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE WILL SEE ONE MORE WARM DAY BEFORE COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE AREA. CURRENTLY WE SIT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN IS GIVING
US A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. USUALLY THIS PATTERN IS A QUIET
ONE...BUT FOR US LATER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A PUSH OF COLDER AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WHILE TODAY`S HIGHS WILL RUN
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL RUN ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THAT MEANS MOST
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40`S ON BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COLDER AIR...THE FRONT WILL GIVE
US SOME STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW I THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. FINALLY...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GIVE THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

LATE ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL HELP OUR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY. LATE ON CHRISTMAS
DAY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DASH ACROSS NORTHER NEW MEXICO WHICH
WILL HELP GIVE US SOME BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE
MODELS. THE GFS GIVE US A ZONAL FLOW...WHILE THE ECMWF DROPS A
TROUGH INTO NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW BOTH SOLUTIONS STILL GIVE US DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z
LIKE YESTERDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS OF BKN250 OFF AND
ON THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM 27010KT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR WINDS AND SWING
THEM AROUND TO THE NORTH AT 34018G28KT WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS ON
THE EAST SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. ALSO LATER TONIGHT WE MAY SEE
SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH BREEZY WINDS...BUT THEN TONIGHT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE AND SWING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH. WE WILL SEE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVER NIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION WE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY WE
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. NEXT WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  41  50  25  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           63  39  47  22  49 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              64  38  49  22  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              61  36  46  19  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              47  23  30  10  34 /   0  20  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  38  46  22  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  34  44  21  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  65  36  49  20  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               62  33  50  19  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  43  49  27  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  37  49  17  51 /   0  10  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  42  51  23  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              60  39  45  24  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
FABENS                  67  39  50  22  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  38  49  22  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  41  48  26  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           64  32  49  16  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   66  37  49  21  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                65  41  50  23  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               62  38  47  22  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  29  38  14  41 /   0  20  30   0   0
MESCALERO               54  27  38  13  40 /   0  20  20   0   0
TIMBERON                54  29  38  13  39 /   0  20  20   0   0
WINSTON                 57  32  41  17  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  36  45  21  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  33  48  18  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  32  42  17  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  61  35  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   63  31  49  16  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              60  27  47  12  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  36  45  22  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  65  36  52  21  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 64  33  51  17  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  35  51  17  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              64  36  51  20  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE





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