Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 241015
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
415 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Some lingering showers over Hudspeth County this morning will
diminish by Midday. Thunderstorms will return this afternoon in
extreme eastern Hudspeth County, with a few storms across the Gila
Region as well. Elsewhere, expect a fairly quiet and dry day.
Thunderstorm chances will slowly increase each day from Thursday
through Saturday as low level moisture returns to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our upper low that sat over northern Arizona for the past couple
of days is slowly moving into south-central Colorado this morning.
The main upper trough extends back across Arizona with a notable
vort max evident on water vapor imagery over NE AZ. Secondary
trough cuts NNE to SSW across New Mexico and separates our
subtropical moisture tap to the east from the drier/more stable
air coming in from the west. A weak surface is reflected at the
surface, still running more or less along the Rio Grande. To its
west we have 40s dewpoints across SW New Mexico, and to its east
60s dewpoints over El Paso/Otero/Hudspeth Counties and snaking up
the Mesilla Valley.

Sadly, those 60s dewpoints will quickly mix out over most of the
Rio Grande valley by early afternoon, with the surface trough
shifting expected to extend along an Artesia-Dell City-Sierra
Blanca line by around 21z. Areas east of the trough will be most
favored for afternoon thunderstorm development...with SBCAPE
values in SE Hudspeth County expected to be in the 1000-1500 J/Kg
range and enough shear from somewhat organized multicells. Expect
storms will favor the higher terrain on either side of the Rio
Grande and spread NE into the early evening hours.

Elsewhere...the main trough will be swinging into New Mexico this
afternoon, carrying slightly moister/cooler air aloft into the
Gila Region while the dry slot still holds on from the Boot Heel
and up towards the Sacramento Mountains. Dry low level airmass
will be the main limiting factor for the Gila, but expect widely
scattered, mostly terrain-based thunderstorms over Grant and
Western Sierra counties this afternoon. Storms will attempt to
drop SE into the lowlands, but will likely struggle (still worth a
10 PoP for the afternoon/evening). With PW values below an inch
and less storm coverage, it is not likely we will see very heavy
rainfall over the Black Range, limiting the flash flood threat in
saturated western Sierra County.

By tomorrow...the trough is more or less history, and we will
transition back to a weak forcing regime. Light/variable low level
flow will keep the drier air in place but with cooling aloft,
expect moderate instability (CAPEs 500-750 J/Kg). This should
yield widely scattered thunderstorms and perhaps better coverage
than you`d expect for the lowlands with light northerly mid-level
flow tending to bring storms south out of the mountains, while
upper level flow from the SW pulls away the cirrus blowoff to the
NE.

Look for an uptick in thunderstorm activity on Friday as
instability increases, and SE low level flow enhances low level
moisture again. Aloft, we will be in sort of an ill-defined
weakness between two subtropical high centers (one off the coast
of Baja and the other over the SE U.S.). PWs will crawl back
towards the 1.00 inch mark, but slow weak flow will result in
slower storms and a slightly higher threat for highly-localized
flooding.

Thunderstorm chances continue to slowly eek upwards heading into
the weekend as a weak trough drops in from the NW. An upper
tropospheric low or TUTT over the Gulf Coast tries to move
westward into Central Texas early next week per some of the
models, but it weakens and dives SW into Mexico. Still could see
some fringe effects from this as convection to our east may
result in a push of moisture, but that`s a long way off.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms this afternoon will be most favored in extreme
eastern Hudspeth County and over the Gila Region as an upper level
trough moves in. Drier/more stable air will reign from the NM
Bootheel up into the lowlands of South-Central NM, resulting in
very low thunderstorm chances for most TAF sites. An isolated
storm may try to drop SE from the Gila Region towards KDMN in the
afternoon, but it will be running into an unfavorable environment.
Thunderstorm chances will increase slightly Thursday, and little
more on Friday as low level moisture pushes back into the area
from the SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier/stable air will limit thunderstorm activity across most of
the area today, with the exception of the Gila Region as an upper
level trough swings across the area. Drier low level airmass will
limit precip amounts, and the overall precip chances will be
higher over Catron County versus Grant County. Far eastern
Hudspeth County will also be another focus area for afternoon
thunderstorms...but fairly quiet elsewhere. Even the Sacramentos
will struggle to produce convection as drier air aloft will push
just to their east.

Dewpoints in the 40s over most of the area will yield Min RH
values in the lower 20s across the lowlands. RH values will
improve along with precip chances as we head towards the end of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 92  68  89  69 /  10   0  20  30
Sierra Blanca           85  66  85  66 /  20  10  50  30
Las Cruces              88  61  87  63 /  10   0  20  40
Alamogordo              90  61  89  61 /  10  10  40  30
Cloudcroft              68  47  65  47 /  40  10  70  50
Truth or Consequences   85  59  86  62 /  30  30  30  40
Silver City             81  54  81  57 /  40  30  40  30
Deming                  88  62  88  65 /  10   0  20  40
Lordsburg               89  61  90  64 /  10  10  20  20
West El Paso Metro      91  68  89  70 /  10   0  20  40
Dell City               87  64  86  64 /  20   0  50  30
Fort Hancock            90  69  88  69 /  20   0  50  20
Loma Linda              83  62  81  63 /  10   0  40  30
Fabens                  90  68  89  67 /  10   0  30  30
Santa Teresa            90  66  88  68 /  10   0  20  40
White Sands HQ          88  64  87  67 /  10   0  20  40
Jornada Range           88  59  87  61 /  20  20  20  40
Hatch                   88  60  87  64 /  20  20  20  40
Columbus                91  63  89  66 /  10   0  20  30
Orogrande               88  63  87  64 /  10   0  30  30
Mayhill                 76  51  71  49 /  40  10  60  50
Mescalero               77  51  76  51 /  40  10  60  50
Timberon                74  49  73  49 /  40  10  60  50
Winston                 79  49  78  51 /  50  30  50  40
Hillsboro               84  57  84  57 /  40  30  40  40
Spaceport               85  58  86  62 /  20  20  30  40
Lake Roberts            82  47  81  52 /  50  30  50  30
Hurley                  83  54  83  57 /  30  30  40  30
Cliff                   88  55  88  57 /  40  30  30  30
Mule Creek              84  51  84  53 /  40  30  30  20
Faywood                 86  57  87  59 /  30  30  40  40
Animas                  90  57  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
Hachita                 90  59  90  63 /  10   0  20  20
Antelope Wells          89  59  87  62 /  10  10  20  20
Cloverdale              82  57  81  60 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman


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