Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301009
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
409 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST...OVER NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND THEN OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE TODAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OUT WEST OF DEMING...HENCE THAT IS WHERE MOST
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST THE
MOISTURE WILL ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE BORDERLAND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH NOW OVER THE SIERRA MADRES OF NORTHERN MEXICO THOUGH
HARD TO SEE CIRCULATION IN WV IMAGERY. VORT CENTER OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO DROPPING SOUTH AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS FEATURE ALSO HELPING TO FORCE UPPER HIGH FURTHER WEST.
NICE DRY SLOT MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE VORT CENTER AND SHOULD
BRING TO THE EASTERN CWA SOME OF THE LOWER PW`S WE`VE SEEN IN
SOMETIME. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS PW`S IN THE EAST AROUND 1.1 INCH WITH
READINGS OF .75 INCHES NOT TOO FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST. BOTH NAM/GFS
BRING THOSE LOW PW`S OVER THE EASTERN CWA. AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
INTO EASTERN ARIZONA LATER TODAY MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD ALSO
CONCENTRATE OUT TOWARD ARIZONA. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY THE BLACK RANGE) AND WEST OF
DEMING. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA. MONDAY
BASICALLY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY.

BY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AND
ELONGATING SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AS BLOCKING LOW DEVELOPS FAR EAST
TEXAS AND DEEP TROUGHING CONTINUES OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE PLUME TO SHIFT EAST AND REDISTRIBUTE
MOISTURE RATHER UNIFORMLY ACROSS THE CWA. PW`S SHOULD BE BACK AT
AROUND ONE INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. PUT POPS BACK INTO ALL AREAS.

UPPER RIDGE PRETTY MUCH REMAINS STATIONARY IN BLOCKING PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. GFS
NOW SHOWING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGH CIRCULATION WITHIN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DROPS
FURTHER SOUTH GIVING A BETTER SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT MID LEVELS.
AND UPPER LOW...POSSIBLY TROPICAL IN ORIGIN...ALSO MOVES NORTH OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND UP TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DID
TREND LATE PERIOD UP SOME TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER LATEST
ECMWF NOT NEAR AS BULLISH ON FORECAST...SO BIG GRAIN OF SALT ALSO
INCLUDED IN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-31/12Z.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
15Z WEST OF DEMING...SCT-BKN120 ISOLATED -SHRA BKN100. DVLPG AFT
17Z MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF DEMING...SCATTERED -TSRA
BKN100CB WITH ISOLD 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS BLO 020.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND LOWLAND ZONES DEMING
WEST...BOTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. UPPER HIGH SHIFTING BACK
EAST OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL ALSO
DISTRIBUTE MOISTURE MORE EVENLY AND GIVE ALL FIRE ZONES A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S TO 30S...WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. NO SIGNIFICANT NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 94  71  96  72 /   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           94  66  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              93  66  95  67 /   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              94  67  96  68 /   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              71  48  73  50 /  10   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   91  66  92  67 /  10  20  30  20
SILVER CITY             85  63  86  64 /  40  30  50  30
DEMING                  93  65  94  67 /  20  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               93  64  94  66 /  20  20  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      94  71  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               95  66  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            96  68  98  70 /   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              91  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  95  67  98  70 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            94  69  95  70 /   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  68  96  69 /   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           94  66  95  67 /   0   0  10  10
HATCH                   94  66  96  66 /   0   0  20  10
COLUMBUS                94  66  95  67 /  10  10  20  20
OROGRANDE               94  68  96  69 /   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 77  53  81  56 /  20   0  20  20
MESCALERO               80  53  82  56 /  20   0  20  20
TIMBERON                79  55  81  57 /  10   0  20  20
WINSTON                 81  55  83  59 /  50  30  60  30
HILLSBORO               91  62  91  66 /  40  20  40  30
SPACEPORT               92  66  94  67 /   0   0  20  10
LAKE ROBERTS            83  52  85  55 /  60  30  60  30
HURLEY                  87  63  88  64 /  30  20  40  30
CLIFF                   88  58  90  58 /  30  20  40  30
MULE CREEK              87  55  88  57 /  40  20  40  20
FAYWOOD                 89  62  90  65 /  30  20  40  30
ANIMAS                  92  66  93  66 /  30  20  30  20
HACHITA                 92  64  93  65 /  30  20  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          88  63  90  64 /  50  20  40  30
CLOVERDALE              85  61  87  65 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/ HEFNER



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