Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272125
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
325 PM MDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture associated with Roslyn continues to stream
across the Borderland over the next several days. Isolated showers
will continue tonight. With gradual warming over the next few
days, the airmass will become more unstable. This will allow some
thunderstorms to develop. The best chances will be west of the Rio
Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday, then switching to mostly the
Rio Grande Valley east on Friday. Drier air moves in for the
weekend as a strong Pacific upper trough moves to the Great Basin.
This will allow temperatures to warm back to normal for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical moisture from Roslyn continues to stream up over the CWA,
in addition to some tropical moisture over Mexico, all being
drawn up between the old upper low over northwest Mexico and the
upper high over south Texas. Current PW`s range from around .9
inches east to .7 inches west. Expect isolated showers tonight as
low level coolness still keeping airmass stable. Showers may be
confined to west but left POPs in for most all zones.

Thursday and Friday...temperatures begin to warm up back to near
normal, allowing instability to increase. Whatever remains of
Roslyn`s upper support moves over on Thursday, so look for uptick
in POPs, especially west. Modest CAPE values out west with minor
shear profile suggest a few storms could become strong. On Friday
the moisture and energy shift further east, with best chances from
Rio Grande Valley east. CAPE values still rather modest, but a bit
better shear environment east than previous day, so a few storms
could become strong or even severe.

Saturday through Tuesday...next Pacific trough becomes main player
as it moves onshore and to the central Rockies by Monday. A bit of
moisture/instability persisting over Hudspeth County Saturday so
kept a small POP in for them. Otherwise should be mostly clear
skies and dry. Despite rather windy looking upper pattern,
surface gradient never really strengthens much, so winds as of
now, look to be no more than breezy on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/00Z-29/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN060-080 BKN200-250 through much of the period. Isold 3-
5SM -TSRA BKN040-060 possible west of divide through 04Z. After 18Z
sct west and isold east 3-5SM -TSRA BKN040-060. E to SE winds AOB
12kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low currently over northern Baja will be slowly lifting north
and becoming phased with an approaching trough over coming days.
This will keep a south-southwest flow aloft over area with southeast
surface winds all transporting moisture to the region. Expect best
chance for showers and thunderstorms west of the divide through
Wednesday then starting to push further east for the end of the
week. A few storms may be strong Thursday. Drier air quickly moves
in for the weekend. Temperatures will be rising into the lower to
mid 80s for the lowlands beginning Wednesday and continuing into the
weekend.  Relative humidities will start out in the 30s and drop
into the teens and 20s for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 59  82  64  78 /   0  20  20  20
Sierra Blanca           53  79  59  73 /   0  10  10  20
Las Cruces              53  80  60  77 /   0  20  20  20
Alamogordo              54  81  58  77 /   0  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              38  66  41  61 /   0  20  20  20
Truth or Consequences   51  78  59  75 /   0  20  20  20
Silver City             51  74  56  70 /  10  40  30  50
Deming                  51  79  59  77 /  10  20  30  30
Lordsburg               52  79  58  76 /  20  30  30  40
West El Paso Metro      58  81  64  78 /   0  20  20  20
Dell City               53  82  58  76 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Hancock            59  82  62  77 /   0  20  20  20
Loma Linda              53  79  60  72 /   0  20  10  20
Fabens                  57  82  61  78 /   0  20  20  20
Santa Teresa            54  81  62  78 /   0  20  20  20
White Sands HQ          55  80  60  76 /   0  20  20  20
Jornada Range           51  81  56  77 /   0  20  20  20
Hatch                   54  80  59  76 /   0  20  20  20
Columbus                54  80  61  77 /   0  20  20  30
Orogrande               56  82  61  77 /   0  20  20  20
Mayhill                 42  71  46  65 /   0  20  20  20
Mescalero               41  73  46  69 /   0  20  10  20
Timberon                41  71  46  66 /   0  20  20  20
Winston                 43  74  47  71 /  10  30  30  50
Hillsboro               50  78  54  75 /   0  30  30  40
Spaceport               52  79  58  75 /   0  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            46  74  49  73 /  10  40  30  50
Hurley                  50  76  55  73 /  10  40  30  40
Cliff                   48  79  49  75 /  20  40  30  50
Mule Creek              46  77  46  73 /  20  40  30  60
Faywood                 50  77  55  75 /  10  30  30  40
Animas                  50  80  56  78 /  20  30  30  40
Hachita                 50  79  56  77 /  10  30  30  40
Antelope Wells          51  79  57  75 /  10  30  30  40
Cloverdale              50  77  57  74 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz



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