Area Forecast Discussion
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543
FXUS64 KEPZ 310901
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
301 AM MDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Good news ahead for those who want or need rain across the region
after a very dry first half of the year. The upper high that has
kept the region very hot and very dry is weakening overhead as it
begins a shift well to the east. This will set up a deep moisture
tap into the Borderland that will bring the region into a moist
monsoon weather pattern. This will mean cooler temperatures
through all of next week with improved chances for daily rain
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The region is under a significant transition; from unseasonably hot
and very dry to seasonal and moist. This is coming about by the
weakening and shifting of the upper high pressure system that has
been locked over the region. The high will refocus itself over the
central and west Gulf states which will place our region under a
deep southerly flow trajectory. To our south is copious amounts of
moisture over Sonora and Chihuahua in Mexico. The result will be
a healthy concentration of monsoonal moisture drawing north into
AZ and W NM today through Wednesday. For days 1-3 the bulk of the
moisture will be over AZ, but later periods should see that
moisture shift east into our region as a pair of Pacific troughs
cut across the western states; drying AZ and wetting NM/W TX.

For today we will see modest moisture gains, as moisture over AZ
recycles into our region from the north in the circulation around
the upper ridge. That small increase should be enough to see
increased daytime instability and a likelihood for more shower
and thunderstorm development. PW should increase to 1.25" with
surface dewpoints holding in the 50s. Thus isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected by midday and beyond, with all
zones having POPs today/tonight. Best chances will be N and W.
Also highest risk of heavy rain and flooding N and W. With the
added moisture, and more clouds expected, temperatures will be on
a minor decline and top out each day right about normal...maybe
even a few degrees short.

This scenario will repeat for Monday and Tuesday with both days
seeing slight increases in moisture, and likely some increase in
areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms. As we moisten the
risk of damaging outflow winds will decrease as the risk of
isolated flash flooding increases.

For the rest of the forecast periods...Wednesday through Saturday
we see a shift of the AZ monsoon moisture plume eastward into our
region. Pw`s will likely bump up again with daily values averaging
in the 1.3"-1.4" range. Again we should see continued chances for
showers and thunderstorms for all parts of the Borderland. Flash
flooding risk will be on the rise through this period as some
areas may see repeated daily rains and high rainfall rates.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 31/12Z-01/12Z.
VFR conditions in general with FEW-SCT050-080 SCT100 SCT-BKN250.
Isold tstm 18Z- 06Z mainly ovr mtns and west of Rio Grande. Isold
Strong thunderstorms could affect the Gila Region will small hail
and very heavy rainfall...localized BKN040 OVC080 1-2MILES +TSRA.
Wnd VRB30G40KT. Winds mostly 170-220 7-12kts.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A monsoon pattern is setting up across the southwestern U.S. This
will allow for a deep southerly flow which will import abundant
subtropical monsoon moisture into AZ/NM/W TX. This moisture will
increase over the next few days with rain shower and thunderstorm
chances getting higher each day...especially over the mountains
and western fire weather zones. Moisture plume will gradually
spread eastward with increasing shower and storm chances over most
of the fire weather zones next week. Temperatures will be on a
slight decrease as increased moisture leads to more clouds and
higher RH values. Daytime RH will stay elevated and overnight
recoveries will be good.

Winds will remain light through the period, generally E to SE in the
lowlands.  In the higher elevations, winds will be more terrain-
driven during the overnight and morning hours, then largely
influenced by thunderstorm outflow in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 95  74  95  73 /  20  30  10  20
Sierra Blanca           92  70  93  70 /  20  20  20  20
Las Cruces              94  69  94  68 /  20  30  30  30
Alamogordo              94  70  93  70 /  40  30  30  30
Cloudcroft              73  46  73  47 /  40  30  50  30
Truth or Consequences   92  70  92  70 /  40  30  30  30
Silver City             86  60  85  61 /  40  40  60  40
Deming                  94  69  93  68 /  30  30  30  40
Lordsburg               90  67  90  66 /  40  40  40  50
West El Paso Metro      95  74  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Dell City               95  69  94  68 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Hancock            96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
Loma Linda              88  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  20
Fabens                  96  73  95  71 /  20  30  20  20
Santa Teresa            94  71  94  71 /  20  30  20  30
White Sands HQ          92  71  93  72 /  20  30  20  20
Jornada Range           95  67  94  67 /  30  30  30  30
Hatch                   95  68  95  69 /  30  30  30  30
Columbus                94  70  93  70 /  20  30  30  30
Orogrande               93  71  94  71 /  20  30  10  20
Mayhill                 80  51  80  52 /  40  30  50  30
Mescalero               82  50  81  52 /  40  30  50  30
Timberon                79  48  79  51 /  40  30  40  30
Winston                 84  56  86  56 /  40  40  70  40
Hillsboro               91  63  92  64 /  40  40  50  30
Spaceport               92  67  93  68 /  40  30  30  30
Lake Roberts            86  53  88  54 /  50  50  70  50
Hurley                  86  61  87  62 /  40  40  50  40
Cliff                   89  60  89  61 /  50  40  40  30
Mule Creek              88  54  87  57 /  50  50  60  40
Faywood                 88  62  89  63 /  40  40  50  40
Animas                  90  68  90  67 /  40  40  40  50
Hachita                 91  67  90  67 /  30  30  30  50
Antelope Wells          88  67  88  65 /  30  40  40  50
Cloverdale              82  61  82  61 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-BIRD



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