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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242203
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
303 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry conditions for the post-Thanksgiving weekend, with
Monday to follow the same. Temperatures will be well above normal
with daily highs challenging daily records. Generally clear skies
with plenty of dry air over the region. Winds will remain mostly
light. The rest of the week will be cooler as a couple of dry
waves and two cold fronts push in. By week`s end daily
temperatures will struggle to reach normal as the coldest air of
the season arrives late Thursday and especially Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This 7-day forecast package can be broken down into two periods.
The first being dominated by large, dominating, uncharacteristicly
strong high pressure for days 1, 2, and 3. The second period
seeing that high pressure shifted south and allowing a series of
upper-level waves pass to our north, with accompanying surface
cold fronts pushing in.

First we continue under the influence of the upper high, centered
to our west. This feature will keep the region exceptionally warm
and dry. Daily highs SAT-MON will continue to run over 10 degrees
above normal. Skies will continue mostly clear, with some high
clouds, as the airmass remains very dry with dewpoints in the
20s-30s and PWs below 0.40". The jet will remain displaced well
north with mostly loose pressure gradients keeping winds generally
light. These conditions hold through Monday as the upper high
center and ridge axis slowly eases eastward toward our region.

Tuesday the region will see a fiarly pronounced pattern change as
the upper high sags south and east, and departs the region, as
the upper jet pattern drops over the Southwestern U.S. and directs
the storm track across the Four Corners region. A sharp upper
trough will pass to our north on Tuesday, and be followed by two
more (THU and SAT). None of these storm systems look to come close
enough to our region to bring any moisture, dynamics, or
precipitation. However they do help to open the door for cooler
air to move into the region. The first cold front pushes in
Tuesday aftn/eve. However appear to bring high-modified,
moderately cooler air. So for the TUE-WED time frame our cooling
will be only marginal, with temps still above normal, and due
mostly to cooling aloft with the absence of high pressure and west
winds.

Thursday and Friday things get a bit more interesting as a sharp
upper-level Pacific storm system cuts SE across the Four Corners
and passes east across northern New Mexico. At the same time
models indicate a stronger cold front, with much cooler air
dropping south through the Southern Plains. This combo produces
significant potential for winter weather just to our north and
east for Thursday night and Friday. It`s still quite early with
this scenario, so we`ll have to watch it for any signs of easing
that potential southwestward into our N and E zones (Otero and
Hudspeth counties). For now we keep the forecast dry, and without
any winter weather, and just allow for cooling that looks to
bring our temperatures below normal to end this package for
Friday.

15-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z...
VFR conds continue thru pd with VIS P6sm and a few passing
cirrus clouds as an upper high pressure persists in the Desert
Southwest. Variable winds with speeds between 5 to 10 kts.

29-Crespo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Similar to yesterday, warm and dry weather continues
over the Desert Southwest. Near record high temperatures are
expected this weekend, as an upper level high pressure remains in
the region. Also very dry conditions continue with min RHs in the
mid teens through Monday. The weather pattern will change after mid
week as two cold fronts pass through with no precip chances, except
for the far eastern and northern areas of the region. Vent rates
categories persist mostly in the poor category with improvements
ahead of the cold fronts into the good category on Monday and
Thursday.

29-Crespo

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 49  77  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           52  74  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              44  76  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              49  72  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              37  61  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   46  76  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             48  74  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  42  77  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               42  76  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      52  75  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               39  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            46  78  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              47  74  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  38  79  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            44  76  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          50  74  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           36  73  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   42  76  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                43  78  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               47  75  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 48  66  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               38  74  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                36  68  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 35  76  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               42  75  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               38  76  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            29  78  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  44  75  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   31  75  28  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              47  75  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 46  74  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  37  78  34  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 38  78  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          37  80  34  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              46  78  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/29



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