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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290954
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
353 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY THOUGH WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA FROM ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A COOL FRONT
WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE BORDERLAND TO ARIZONA SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA BY
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
US THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND
BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NICE DAY OVERALL TODAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA IS
SPREADING SWATH OF HIGHER CLOUDS EAST BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH JUST A BIT OF THE CLOUDS TICKLING
OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM
DAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD NORTH...SHARPENING
UP OUR NORTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL
TURN WINDS MORE NORTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN
PUSHING THE DRYLINE...WHICH HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF THE CWA...BACK
ACROSS OUR CWA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW/TROUGH NOW OVER WYOMING
WILL ALSO DROP SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WEST INTO MUCH OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLIER FOR THE SAC MTNS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD WEST OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL BLEND SHOWS MUCAPES OF ABOUT 500-2000
J/KG (HIGHEST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY) AND LI`S OF ABOUT -2 TO
-5. COMBINED WITH GOOD BACKING SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. WET BULB ZEROES OF LESS THAN 13,000 MSL
SHOULD AID IN LARGER HAIL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS FOR SATURDAY. PW`S INCREASE TO .75 - 1.00 INCHES BY
LATE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE IN
RIGHT OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS AS THERE IS REAL
NO SOURCE TO FLUSH IT OUT. GOOD INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY YET BUT THIS
WEAKENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GFS PROG SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING ANY
CAPPING LAYERS...BUT H5 WARM ADVECTION WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS
CAPPING WILL DEVELOP. HAVING SAID THAT WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN SUNDAY AND THEN VERY SLOWLY TRIM POPS BACK MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS MAY END UP BEING THE ONLY AREAS THAT CAN
POP THROUGH THE CAP.

LONGER RANGE...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW SHOWING T.S. ANDRES HAVING NO
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER MID WEEK WITH NO SIGN OF MOISTURE SPINNING
OFF. BOTH MODELS DIFFERING ON NEXT TROPICAL FEATURE WHICH WOULD BE
BLANCA. ECMWF SHOWING A MORE NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER MEXICO/TEXAS
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT MUCH FURTHER WEST...WEST OF THE BAJA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS 8-13 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONE MORE DRY DAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTRUSION AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE DEVELOP. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL RUN ABOUT 7-12%. BACK DOOR
FRONT MOVING IN MID DAY SATURDAY WILL GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. EXPECT THUNDER STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD WEST OVER MOST OF THE REST OF
THE ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING COULD
ALSO BE AN ISSUE...MAINLY RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO CAP MUCH OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...NOT
AS STRONG...AND LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. MIN RH`S FOR
THE WEEKEND WILL INCREASE TO 20S LOWLANDS...AND 25-45% MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 95  66  91  63  90 /   0   0  20  30  10
SIERRA BLANCA           92  61  87  56  85 /   0   0  40  50  10
LAS CRUCES              94  59  89  58  89 /   0   0  20  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              95  60  87  56  88 /   0   0  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              72  41  65  40  66 /   0   0  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   93  58  87  58  88 /   0   0  20  30  20
SILVER CITY             85  52  83  51  80 /   0   0  10  20  20
DEMING                  95  57  91  56  91 /   0   0   0  20   0
LORDSBURG               94  58  91  58  91 /   0   0   0  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      94  66  91  63  91 /   0   0  20  30  10
DELL CITY               94  59  88  55  85 /   0   0  40  40  10
FORT HANCOCK            95  64  90  60  90 /   0   0  40  50  10
LOMA LINDA              89  58  83  54  81 /   0   0  30  40  10
FABENS                  95  62  91  59  91 /   0   0  20  40  10
SANTA TERESA            94  63  90  59  90 /   0   0  20  20  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          95  63  88  60  88 /   0   0  20  30  10
JORNADA RANGE           95  57  88  55  89 /   0   0  20  30  10
HATCH                   94  58  90  57  90 /   0   0  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                94  62  90  61  90 /   0   0   0  10   0
OROGRANDE               95  62  87  59  87 /   0   0  20  30  10
MAYHILL                 80  47  70  45  72 /   0   0  40  50  30
MESCALERO               81  45  73  42  74 /   0   0  40  50  20
TIMBERON                79  46  73  44  72 /   0   0  30  40  20
WINSTON                 84  49  80  46  78 /   0   0  20  30  30
HILLSBORO               92  55  88  51  86 /   0   0  20  30  20
SPACEPORT               96  55  89  53  90 /   0   0  20  30  10
LAKE ROBERTS            85  49  83  47  80 /   0   0  20  30  30
HURLEY                  88  53  85  50  82 /   0   0  10  20  20
CLIFF                   90  42  87  44  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
MULE CREEK              87  41  87  42  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 89  55  85  52  82 /   0   0  10  20  20
ANIMAS                  94  59  92  58  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 95  57  92  56  92 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          94  57  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              89  55  89  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER







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