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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220853
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT
GULF MOISTURE WILL PRESS WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OTERO AND
HUDSPETH COUNTIES...AND MAYBE EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION STAYS WARM AND DRY.
OTHERWISE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE BORDERLAND WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWO WORDS FOR TODAY`S WEATHER...WARM/DRY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMS TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW AFTERNOON WINDS JUST BELOW BREEZY
CRITERIA. A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE
GENERALLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY... BUT SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THUS MID
90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED VERY DRY...MEANING WILDFIRE CONCERNS ELEVATE.

THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT WEST A BIT ALLOWING FOR GULF
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ON SE FLOW ACROSS TX. THIS
MAY BRING THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. IF SO...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS FAR EASTERN CWFA. HOWEVER WE EXPECT MOST
STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE DRY LINE IS PROGED TO BE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER OUR EASTERN CWFA...EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DRYLINE
PLACEMENT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO DRIFT WEST INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN
AND POSSIBLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO SHIFT BACK EAST A BIT WITH DAYTIME MIXING. THUS
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH...AND ONLY
EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES FOR THESE TWO AFTERNOONS/EVENING. FOR ALL
OTHER ZONES TO THE WEST IT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
A BIT. THIS NUDGES THE SURFACE TROUGH BACK TO THE NM/TX STATE LINE
AND EFFECTIVELY ENDS OUR EAST ZONE PCPN CHANCES AS THE DRY LINE
EXITS THE REGION TO OUR EAST. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE UNDER DEEP...DRY...WARM...BREEZY/WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RELUCTANTLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE WINDS
DOMINATING OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE 18-24 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND OVER
EASTERN AREAS ONLY...

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL TODAY AS SW FLOW RESUMES.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH WESTWARDS
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION RESULTING IN SOME THUNDER- STORM
ACTIVITY TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT
IN OUTFLOW WHICH WILL FURTHER PUSH THE MOISTURE AND DRYLINE
BOUNDARY WESTWARDS AND REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT AND THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTOS/GUADALUPES IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. BEING ON THE
MARGINAL WESTWARD FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE SUGGESTS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
OTERO MESA AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  69  95  70  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           91  62  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20  20
LAS CRUCES              91  58  93  61  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              90  58  93  61  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              68  45  69  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   91  61  92  64  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             88  55  87  55  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  91  56  93  57  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               91  57  93  57  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      92  66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
DELL CITY               91  57  93  60  94 /   0   0  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            95  64  94  68  97 /   0   0  10  10  10
LOMA LINDA              87  57  86  59  88 /   0   0  10  10  10
FABENS                  93  66  94  67  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            93  60  95  63  94 /   0   0   0  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          91  67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           91  49  94  52  92 /   0   0   0  10   0
HATCH                   88  59  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                91  61  94  62  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               94  57  96  61  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 80  53  80  57  80 /   0   0  10  20  30
MESCALERO               79  45  82  48  83 /   0   0  10  10  20
TIMBERON                78  44  80  49  81 /   0   0  10  10  20
WINSTON                 81  48  83  49  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               86  56  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               90  56  92  57  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            83  49  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  86  59  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   92  51  92  52  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              88  42  89  42  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 85  58  88  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  91  57  93  59  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 90  56  92  56  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          92  60  93  60  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              86  55  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD