Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230902
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
302 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES EARLY
TODAY. MOST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE EARLY TODAY.
FEWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH DIMINISHING FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR MOVE OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOONS WILL SEE A FEW
STORMS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF STORMS AS A SHARP PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN FLASH FLOOD MODE OVERNIGHT AS AN
IMPULSE IS PUSHING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SIERRA COUNTY FROM NW TO SE. T OR C AIRPORT RECORDED 2.23"...
ALMOST 2" OF IT FELL IN 50 MIN. T OR C REPORTED SOME FLOODING...
AND THE RADAR ESTIMATED FROM 1.3 TO 2.5" FROM ELEPHANT BUTTE TO T
OR C. HOWEVER THE RADAR UNDERESTIMATED THE AIRPORT CATCH AT .96".

FOR TODAY THE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE MORNING OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE...BUT THERE
IS NOT GOOD CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY WE
OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THOSE EAST ZONES
THROUGH NOON. POPS ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE EAST VS 10-20
PERCENT RANGE WEST. A LITTLE LOW FOR FFA...BUT IT REFLECTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON OUR PART WITH THIS CURRENT SETUP. WE DO STILL SHOW
A UPPER IMPULSE ALOFT...AND THE PM EPZ SOUNDING WAS STILL AT 1.55"
PW. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE SLOW WITH
BACK-BUILDING POTENTIAL. THUS WE`LL LEAN TOWARD MORE HEAVY RAIN
EAST THROUGH THE AM HOURS TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD GET BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH AND THE
ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ALSO BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH
SOME NNE WINDS ALOFT. PROGS SHOW PW`S TO DROP TO AROUND 1.25" OR
LOWER. THIS SHOULD END OUR PRIMARY THREAT FOR SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN
AND REDUCE THE CONVECTION BACK TO ISOLATED...ESPECIALLY WEST ZONES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH UPPER RIDGING
TO OUR WEST AND SURFACE RIDGING TO OUR EAST. THIS KEEPS THE UPPER
LEVEL DRY IN RELATIVELY WEAK N/NE FLOW REGIME ALOFT...AND KEEPS
THE LOWER LEVELS SOMEWHAT MOIST IN A SE FLOW PATTERN AT THE
SURFACE. THE PW`S SHOULD BE AROUND 1" EACH DAY. THIS WILL MEAN
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY FAIR WX CU CLOUDS EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WE WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRAY TSRA IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PM HOURS...BETTER CHANCES MTNS THAN LOWLANDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.

FINALLY TO COMPLETE THIS FORECAST CYCLE WE WATCH FOR A DEEP PAC
TROUGH TO SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS
FEATURE A BIT AND HAVE PUSHED IT BACK TO POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR
AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE GFS MODEL TAKES AN AGGRESSIVE STANCE WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH
WEAKER AND LESS IMPACTING FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z - 24/12Z...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THROUGH THE MORNING OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
FEW AREAS WITH CIGS FEW-SCT010-020 SCT-BKN020-040 BKN-OVC050-090
WITH VSBY OCNLY BLO 1SM IN TSRA. CIGS GNRLY FEW- SCT015-030 SCT-
BKN040-080 WITH VSBY P6SM. ISOLD LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
TSTMS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST AIRMASS AND WEAK IMPULSES TO KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THIS AFTERNOON DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
AREAS. HOWEVER ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...THEN WARMING TO
AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LOW (2 OR 3) HAINES
INDICES. LATE NEXT WEEKEND A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PASS TO INCREASE
WINDS AND STORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 81  63  86  64  84 /  40  10  10  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           78  56  82  57  81 /  30  10  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              80  61  84  62  81 /  30  10   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              83  60  87  61  87 /  40  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              63  45  64  45  62 /  40  20  20  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  59  82  62  82 /  20  10   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             79  56  82  59  79 /  20  20  10  10  20
DEMING                  83  60  85  61  83 /  20  10   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               85  61  87  62  85 /  20  10   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  63  86  65  82 /  40  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               80  59  81  58  81 /  30  10  10  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            84  61  86  62  84 /  40  10  10  10  10
LOMA LINDA              77  58  78  58  77 /  40  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  86  59  86  62  84 /  40  10  10  10   0
SANTA TERESA            83  62  85  63  81 /  30  10   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          81  60  82  61  80 /  30  10  10   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           82  57  85  58  82 /  30  10  10   0  10
HATCH                   81  58  82  60  79 /  20  10   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                82  61  84  62  82 /  30  10   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               81  61  82  61  81 /  40  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 71  50  70  50  69 /  40  20  20  20  30
MESCALERO               74  50  74  51  72 /  40  20  20  20  30
TIMBERON                71  51  70  51  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
WINSTON                 74  50  74  52  73 /  30  20  20  10  30
HILLSBORO               77  55  76  56  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               83  59  81  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            79  51  81  54  78 /  30  20  20  10  30
HURLEY                  79  57  82  60  80 /  20  20   0  10  20
CLIFF                   84  55  85  57  81 /  10  10   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              82  50  82  53  80 /  20  10   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 77  56  78  59  77 /  20  10  10  10  20
ANIMAS                  87  61  89  63  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
HACHITA                 83  58  83  60  83 /  20  10   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  58  86  59  84 /  20  10   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              83  58  85  59  82 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NMZ409>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14-BIRD




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