Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 231931
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
131 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES LATER MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE A SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH COVERING NEW MEXICO.
ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH BRING
DRY SUNNY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL MEANWHILE ENTER
THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF TROUGH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY GRADIENTS ALOFT. ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPE FLOW
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL ALSO GENERATE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY SUNDAY WITH PRONOUNCED LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR MASS BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL APPROACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY SUNDAY AND RANGE FROM BREEZY TO
WINDY ON MONDAY. TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASS
THROUGH THE CWA LATER MONDAY WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
LATER PERIODS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS
AGAIN BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z - 25/00Z...
GNLY SKC...WX NIL CAVOK. WINDS LGT VRBL UNDER 7 KTS SW-SE.
SKC-FEW250 OTHERWISE FEW050 AFTN HRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH WILL RUN IN THE
45% TO 55% RANGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY DROPPING ABOUT 10% OVERALL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  82  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  79  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  80  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              49  81  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  65  40  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  79  53  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  76  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  81  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  81  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  82  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  81  47  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  84  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  79  54  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  50  83  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  81  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  80  55  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  81  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  80  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  80  53  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  81  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  73  46  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               39  73  43  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  71  43  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  74  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  77  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               47  80  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  75  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  78  49  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  81  42  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  80  37  79  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  77  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  50  83  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 45  81  48  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  84  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  83  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN




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