Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 240943
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND MOSTLY WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND OVER
THE NEXT WEEK AS OUR UPPER FLOW IS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST
CREATING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH VERY FEW CLOUDS GENERATING FROM THAT. A WEAK
UPPER LOW RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THIS HIGH CENTER. THE HIGH WILL
RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE US 48 HOURS OF LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND PASS OVER NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING ONLY WEAK PVA AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH
THIS TROUGH. NICE ~100 KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH BUT MODELS
SHOW JET MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH CWA REMAINING OUT OF
FAVORED LIFT AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TOKEN POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING MENTIONABLE. GFS SHOWS DECENT SWATH OF HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...
BUT JUST EXPECT MID/HIGH CLDS WITH THIS.

A BETTER DEFINED PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND THE WEAK
TROUGH AND REACHES THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN FEATURE SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE HIGHER CLOUDS OF THE
FIRST TROUGH. TROUGH COULD PICK UP WINDS SOME MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH FOR NOW KEPT WINDS JUST BELOW BREEZY CATEGORY. TROUGH APPEARS
TO BRING WEAK PAC COOL FRONT THROUGH ALSO SO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS SHOULD COOL SOME MONDAY AND THEN
FURTHER TO BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FLOW REMAINS ZONAL BEHIND THE MONDAY
TROUGH WITH DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING RIDGE AHEAD OF
IT OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DAMPENING OUT AND
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ONE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
FOR...GFS IS ADVERTISING WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY AND A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST MOISTURE SURGE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEW POINTS RISE TO OR SURPASS 50
DEG WITH EVEN A BIT OF QPF JUST EAST OF HUDSPETH. SINCE THIS IS DAY
7 OF FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
TWO OF CONSISTENCY OF THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z...
VFR...WX NIL...CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LAYERS OF CIRRUS
FL220 AND ABOVE MAY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM PATTERN OVERALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER HIGH
NEAR NORTHERN BAJA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST...OVER NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE FIRE ZONES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES. SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A WEAK PACIFIC COOL
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AND BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM UP BACK ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE MIN RH`S FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 30-40% THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  57  83  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           79  53  78  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              80  53  80  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  52  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              68  40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  54  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             76  50  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  81  50  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               81  50  81  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  59  82  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  48  80  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  83  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  55  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  83  52  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  54  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  56  79  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           81  44  80  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   80  49  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  54  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               81  56  80  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 75  46  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               75  43  75  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                73  43  74  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  46  75  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               77  53  78  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               80  50  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  46  76  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  78  50  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   81  42  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  38  80  39  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 77  51  77  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  83  53  83  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  49  81  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  49  84  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              83  53  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER








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