Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 102212
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
312 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly flow will bring on a warming trend that will send our
temperatures above normal for several days. Periods of high clouds
can be expected as minor weather disturbances pass by to the
north. On Friday a strong Pacific storm system may begin to
affect the area with increasing clouds, winds and the possibility
of showers developing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow will strengthen the next couple of days. It will
erode a strong surface based inversion that was present this
morning but the full potential of warming will not yet be
realized, so our max temps this afternoon in the valleys will
return to normal or slightly above. Even though heights lower
somewhat Sunday as a minor impulse passes by, another chunk of
warming will take place due to better mixing and breezy west
winds. Afternoon temperatures will remain about 10 to 14 degrees
above normal through the work week, even with mid and high clouds
overhead early in the period. The warmest days will probably be
Wednesday and Thursday with minor upper ridging and plenty of
sunshine taking place. The lowlands could reach into the lower
70s.

The first short wave from a large Pacific trough should bring an
increase in cloudiness, winds and showers Friday, followed by
more showers and cooling Saturday. Snow levels will initially be
high before dropping some after the forecast period. The last
couple of GFS runs have backed off on pushing in a back door front
and colder Canadian air, delaying this until early the following
week.

&&

.AVIATION...

.AVIATION...Valid 11/00Z-12/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT200-250 through 15Z then SCT-BKN060-080 BKN200-250.
Winds will be light and W to SW overnight but increase  out of the
west between 15Z-18Z to 10-20G30KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly flow aloft and at the surface will allow temperatures to
continue warming up with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the
lowlands for the next 5 days. There will be some breezy to possibly
windy conditions on Sunday with slightly lighter winds on Monday.
Relative humidities will remain above 20 percent through Tuesday but
may start dropping into the mid to upper teens by midweek. Winds
will remain light Wednesday and Thursday but increase ahead of the
next cold front on Friday. The front will move through Saturday
and could bring some precipitation and gusty winds to the region.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 37  69  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           37  68  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              30  67  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              32  66  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              28  52  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   31  66  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             32  62  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  31  69  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               34  67  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      39  68  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               29  68  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            33  71  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              36  64  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  32  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            34  68  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          34  67  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           24  67  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   31  67  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                33  70  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               33  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 33  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               29  58  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                30  57  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 23  62  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               29  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               29  66  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            21  62  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  28  64  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   24  66  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              22  65  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 29  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  30  71  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 29  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          28  70  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              37  67  39  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett/26 Grzywacz



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