Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240843
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
243 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The swath of moisture that streamed across Far West Texas and
South Central New Mexico and brought rain and storms to those
areas on Saturday, will shift out of the region today. Much drier
air will be in place today. Thus generally sunny and fair to end
the weekend and start the work week Monday and Tuesday. Winds will
be a bit lighter from the west and southwest in the 5 to 15 mph
range. Tuesday the first of several pushes from the east will turn
our winds easterly and begin to move moisture back into the
region. This will bring back rain and storm chances to the
Borderland as early as Tuesday afternoon. An upper-level storm
system to our west arrives midweek and stays into the weekend.
This will increase the chance and coverage of rain and
thunderstorm chances across the entire region Wednesday through
next weekend. Strong east pushes will bring cooler air with daily
temperatures falling below seasonal averages from Wednesday
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overnight water vapor satellite imagery shows very dry mid and
upper-level air moving back over the CWFA around the base of a
stationary western U.S. trough. The first wave of energy out of
this persistent trough is lifting out to the NE and helping to
shove our moisture east as the surface trough over our areas
drifts east, cutting off the S-SE low-level flow, and returning a
SW flow.

Today models show continued drying with dewpoints down in the
20s-30s west and 30s-40s east. PWs will drop from .25" west to
.75" east. With a sharp warm inversion aloft capping lift the
region will stay dry with just some beautiful CU in our mostly
sunny skies to the east. Despite a minor push from the east
tonight, it appears any moisture gain for Monday will be minor and
short-lived, quick to mix out. Thus Monday weather should mimic
today`s conditions.

Tuesday we see a significant moisture return as a second upper low
drops through the persistent trough to our west and helps to draw
in a surface cool front from the east. With winds turning back
east and lower and mid levels we will see a reversal of the
dewpoint and PWs as we moisten the atmosphere across the zones
east of the Rio Grande. Thus we reintroduce POPs for these areas
Tuesday.

This low-level east flow pattern will become a constant feature
in our weather outlook for the rest of the week and into next
weekend. The upper low to our west will hang back and help to draw
in increasing moisture and cooler air from the east. Aloft the SW
flow ahead of the system will draw up subtropical moisture from
the south. PW`s look to rise above an inch and stay there across
much of the region for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Instability and impulses over the area should result in cloudy,
cooler, and wetter weather each day. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms look to be the best bet each day for most
locations. temperatures will be in the lower 80s and even 70s for
highs beyond Wednesday. With convergence, dynamics aloft, vertical
shear, it is possible we may see some severe storms across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 24/12Z-25/12Z...
Moisture getting shoved back east of the region as winds become
more westerly again. This should end showers and thunderstorms for
all but very far eastern Hudspeth county. VFR conditions are
expected for all terminals today. Skies SKC-SCT060 SCT120. Winds
gnly SW-W 7-12KTS.

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A turn in winds to more westerly today will shove moisture east
and keep the region dry. Drier air will persist over SW New
Mexico again Monday and most of Tuesday. Temperatures are on a
downward trend and will be at or below normal for the week ahead.
A backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures and more
widespread precipitation by Wednesday, mainly for areas east of
the Continental Divide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 86  64  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           85  61  84  60 /   0  10  20  20
Las Cruces              84  53  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              85  57  84  56 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft              66  45  65  44 /   0   0  30  30
Truth or Consequences   83  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             80  50  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  83  49  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               81  47  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      86  63  84  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               85  63  85  59 /   0  10  30  30
Fort Hancock            87  66  87  61 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda              84  61  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  87  65  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            86  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          85  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           85  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   85  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                85  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               85  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 79  51  73  49 /   0   0  30  30
Mescalero               77  50  74  48 /   0   0  20  20
Timberon                76  51  73  48 /   0   0  30  30
Winston                 82  44  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               82  49  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               84  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            80  42  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  81  50  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   78  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              77  44  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 80  48  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  83  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 84  47  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          84  47  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              80  47  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

14-Bird



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