Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252027
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
227 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and windy conditions look to continue Friday with another
warm but less windy day expected Saturday. By Sunday a cold front
will push into the region, setting the stage for a weather
pattern change. Temps will cool to below normal for much of next
week as moisture streams into the region from the south and east.
This will result in a daily dose of showers and storms across the
Borderland Monday through Thursday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warmer than normal temperatures look to remain across the area for
the next couple of days despite the fact that the upper ridge
responsible for the heat is shifting to the east. Meanwhile a
split flow pattern continues across the nation with a broad trough
in place across the northern Rockies while the southern stream
features an enhanced southwest flow across the desert southwest.
A core of 50 knot winds at 500mb will remain over our region this
afternoon through tomorrow while lee troughing keeps the surface
gradient tight and the winds elevated. Normally with this type of
situation we see much stronger wind gusts due to mixing of the
winds aloft during the heat of the afternoon. However a spray of
mid and high clouds has slowed that trend down just a bit today.
Come Friday the clouds should be leaving the picture, thus we
expect another breezy to windy day Friday as well. However,
current forecast projections for Friday keep winds just shy of
advisory criteria.

The gradients look to relax some Saturday leaving behind another
rather toasty day, but with noticeably less wind to contend with.
However things will be changing before the weekend wraps up. As
another wave of northern stream energy digs into the central
plains states, a fairly strong back door cold front will push into
and through the area Sunday. While some stronger west slope winds
will occur with this front, the most notable features associated
with the front will be a return to cooler than normal temps for
next week along with a steady push of low level moisture from the
east and southeast.

With the arrival of the moisture comes the threat for some
precipitation. A few showers and storms will be possible Sunday
afternoon over the Sacramento mountains due mainly to upslope
flow behind the front. However for Monday and most of next week we
will likely see daily doses of showers and storms across the
entire area as a cutoff low settles over the Baja region of Mexico
and helps funnel in additional mid and high level moisture over
the region. Long range models indicate that we will remain under
the influence of the upper low through late week before it exits
to the east and drier air begins to return to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/00Z-27/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250
through 12Z, then skies becoming SKC-FEW250. Winds main concern with
west to southwest winds of 20-30G40KTS through 03Z then decreasing
to 10-15KTS at all except eastern mountain slopes where speeds will
remain stronger through 06Z-09Z. After 15Z winds increase again to
20-25G35KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
One more day of windy, dry conditions with a Red Flag Warning in
place for Friday. West-southwest winds will once again pick up
tomorrow, but should be slightly less than today. Going into the
weekend, southwest flow will continue Saturday with warm and dry air
remaining in place but winds will be below critical speeds. Starting
Sunday, winds will be shifting around to the south to southeast
which will bring in abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture with the chance
for showers and thunderstorms starting Sunday night and continuing
through much of next week.  Little in the way of fire weather
concerns once this pattern sets up next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  94  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           71  93  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              61  90  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              63  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              46  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   59  88  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             52  81  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  59  89  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               57  88  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      72  90  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               66  97  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            73  97  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              67  88  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  72  95  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            67  91  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          68  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           57  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   56  91  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                63  91  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               68  90  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 54  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               50  75  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                46  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 40  78  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               48  86  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               54  90  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            39  78  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  45  81  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   48  86  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              53  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 49  84  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  58  90  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 57  89  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          54  88  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              54  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ402>417.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

27-Laney/26-Grzywacz


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.