Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 132336
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT CIG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDNIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA...ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST IFR CIGS TO ALL TERMINALS. AS
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE RIO GRANDE A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT...KDRT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOWERING TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK
AND SOME MVFR BR. BR CONCERNS SHOULD BE PATCHY AND MINOR WITH
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER 6 KTS ACROSS THE AREA.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID DAY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW FOR THE KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. BY THE END
OF PERIOD ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREA.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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