Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 130434 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1034 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR conditions prevail across the region with overspreading
FEW/SCT200 cirrus. No lower cloud ceilings are expected through the
period until early Thursday morning with BKN100 ceilings with VFR
persisting. Surface winds are below 5 knots and variable across the
region this evening and will remain so overnight. Surface winds will
increase to near 10 knots Wednesday afternoon from the
west/southwest.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Dry seasonal weather will prevail through the short term forecast.
Winds will diminish quickly this evening leading to a cool Wednesday
morning. Lows in the low to mid 30s are expected, with some isolated
pockets of upper 20s in drainage areas of the Hill Country. Highs
Wednesday will rebound in to the upper 60s under high cirrus
streaming into the region.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
A digging upper level trough through the Plains and into West Texas
and Mexico will send another cold front through the region on
Thursday. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area Thursday
and Friday.

Models are in agreement that an upper level low will cut off near
Sonora and Baja Mexico on Friday as the main trough axis pulls away
toward the Northeast U.S. The low is forecast to open and eject
northeast across South Texas Saturday into Saturday night. Low level
moisture return to this region appears to get cut off as a coastal
low/trough develop off the Mid Texas Coast. Nevertheless, height
falls ahead of the opening mid and upper low and strong dynamical
forcing as a 130-140 kt jet streak moves overhead, combined with a
plume of mid level moisture, should generate rain and elevated
thunder chances sometime Saturday or Saturday night. The operational
run of the 12Z GFS is slightly faster than the 12Z GFS at this time.
We have raised PoPs conservatively for Saturday and Saturday night,
and future adjustments upward in the PoPs may be required if trends
hold.

The system should quickly move northeast of the area early Sunday
with clearing and seasonal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              37  67  43  64  40 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  34  66  41  62  39 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     36  65  42  64  40 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            34  66  39  61  36 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           38  64  42  67  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        35  66  41  61  38 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             35  66  41  67  39 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        35  66  42  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   35  65  42  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       38  66  44  65  41 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           37  65  44  66  42 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...33


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