Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 020606 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
106 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TERMINALS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LOW
END MVFR BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...WITH DRT CLOSER TO 12Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL ROUGHLY 16Z. WE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TODAY. FOR NOW...
WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 21Z-02Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...
STILL SEEING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTWARD MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ALL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AS STABILIZATION
BEGINS TO OCCUR WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. HAVE REORIENTED
THE POP GRID FOR TONIGHT TO SHOW THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY UNTIL 02Z
OR 9 PM...THEN KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MOSTLY QUIET. HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE AND REINTRODUCED THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 9Z /4AM/ FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WERE MAINLY EAST OF OUR CWA WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER TEXAS FROM THE
WEST. DEEP LAYER MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  94  74  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  94  74  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  72  92  73  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           95  76  96  76  96 /  -   -    0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  72  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  92  73  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  92  74  93 /  30  10  30  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  75  93  75  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           94  74  95  75  95 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH



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