Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 060348 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1048 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SELECT PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST OUTSIDE ALIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
ACROSS BANDERA COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT NORTH WITH POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A H7 MESO-LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE BIG BEND MAY BE AIDING IN A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPMENT AND IN COMBINATION WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...IS RESULTING
IN LIFT AND THUS SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. KEWX VAD WIND PROFILER DEPICTS
NEAR 25-30 KT ALONG THE NWP DEPICTED 305K THETA LAYER WHERE DECENT
UPWARD DENSITY SLOPE AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
OCCURRING. IT APPEARS THE THESE SHOWERS LIKELY HAVE BASES NEAR 6-10
KFT WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY 1000 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE IN
THIS REGION. SOME THUNDER COULD RESULT IF UPDRAFTS TAP INTO THIS
INSTABILITY ALOFT AND HAVE ADDED SOME THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS WITH ONLY 20% CHANCE THROUGH 4AM. WILL NEED TO FOLLOW
SHORT TERM TRENDS CLOSELY IF ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES NEED TO BE
MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DROP OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO REFORM MAINLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR THE
SAT/SSF/AUS SITES. WENT IFR FOR SAT/SSF BASED ON PREVIOUS DAYS
WHILE AUS/DRT WILL BE IN MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING. ALL SITES WILL
START TO MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN OF VFR. GUIDANCE
IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING SOME DECENT GUSTS OVER 20KT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BUBBLE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH TEXAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE MORE STABLE
AND DRIER AIR PRESENT OVER THE PLATEAU AREA AS CU DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT OCCURRING THERE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. ALSO...DRY AIR ALOFT AND A FZL ABOVE 14KFT WILL MAKE
THUNDER DIFFICULT TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS BRING IN SOME
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TONIGHT AND THAT PLUS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD STOMP OUT ANY SHOWERS BY 00Z-ISH.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL INTENSIFY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TIGHTEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL MAKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS PRETTY
BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED 15-20 KTS ADVERTISED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE.
PRESSURE FALLS LOOK PRETTY RAPID OVER THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MAF
CWA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISALLOBARIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 30
MPH ON THE PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND MOVEMENT WILL BE THE STORY OF THE WEEK AS
THE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7
DAYS. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT IN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE. A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
SOME STORM ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...AND THERE STILL IS THE
OFF CHANCE FOR US TO INHERIT A DYING SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS IS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND SOILS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  91  76  92  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  90  76  91  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  89  75  91  74 /  -   -   -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  89  75  89  73 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  93  77  93  76 /  -   10  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  90  76  91  75 /  10  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  90  76  91  74 /  10  -   -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  90  76  91  74 /  -   -   -   -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  90  77  91  76 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  76  91  75 /  -   -   -   -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  76  91  75 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



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