Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 260846
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
346 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Yesterday evening`s complex of storms that moved through the I-35
corridor continues to decay early this morning as it moves toward
the Rio Grande. Additional showers are re-developing early this
morning across the northern Coastal Bend and Upper Texas Coast
closer to a low level moisture convergent axis. The broad mid and
upper level low centered across the northwest Gulf of Mexico will
elongate westward today, with another spoke of energy wrapping
into portions of South Texas. A healthy 2.1-2.3 inches of
precipitable water is pooled today across the southern half of
the CWA.

Through the next few hours showers should be focused across the
Coastal Plains and Southeast Texas, closer to the aforementioned
convergent axis. As de-stabilization takes place midday through
the afternoon coverage of showers and storms should increase
northwest into the I-35 corridor and Hill Country. Best chances
today for rainfall will be generally along and south of a
Kerrville to New Braunfels to Hallettsville line. Storms late
afternoon and evening should focus across the southwest CWA as
indicated by several hi res models, before gradually dissipating
after sunset.

A few storms yesterday developed some stronger downdrafts and
wind gusts up to 50 mph. Forecasted DCAPE values this afternoon
are not quite as high as yesterday, nevertheless a few stronger
wind gusts are possible. A few pockets of 2-3 inches of rainfall
are possible today given the moisture profile, with averages of
1/2 to 1 inch.

Tonight and Wednesday the low opens with the main energy pivoting
into the lower Mississippi River Valley. A broad weakness is left
behind over South-Central and with precipitable water values
decreased slightly, but still above 2 inches in some areas.
Expected another round of afternoon showers and storms on
Wednesday. Coverage should be slightly less than today.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Drying occurs Thursday and Friday with low chances for showers
mainly focused with what is left of the moisture pool and weakness
aloft across the eastern CWA. Over the weekend the ridge nudges
back into the area. Temperatures warm and look to creep back up
above normal over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  76  96  76  96 /  40  20  40  20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  75  94  76  96 /  50  20  40  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  75  95  75  96 /  70  30  40  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            93  74  93  75  95 /  30  20  40  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  77  96  78  98 /  50  30  30  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  75  94  76  95 /  30  20  40  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             94  76  94  75  96 /  70  40  40  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  75  94  75  96 /  60  30  40  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  76  94  77  96 /  50  20  40  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  76  94  77  96 /  70  30  40  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           94  77  96  77  98 /  70  30  40  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...LH
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen



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