Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 021153
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
653 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON ALONG I-35
WHILE DRT COULD SEE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AROUND ABIA
BY 03Z WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND. FRONTAL
TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 05Z TO 07Z AT SAT/SSF BUT WITH
CONVECTIVE AREAS EXPECTED TO BROADEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTH...WILL OPT
FOR THE WIND SHIFT AT 07Z. STRONG DRYING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT SO WILL EXPECT MOST CONDITIONS TO BUMP UP TO VFR...EVEN AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO
CONVECTION IS INCLUDED FOR DRT TAFS...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
70S. A FEW SPOTS EAST OF I-35 COULD SEE PATCHY MORNING FOG...BUT
GIVEN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...SUSPECT ANY FOG WILL REMAIN
VERY LIGHT. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 90S.
RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR BROKEN...BUT WE COULD
APPROACH THE RECORD OF 97 DEGREES AT SAN ANTONIO. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE DID OPT TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS BURNET AND LLANO COUNTIES AS
THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING AFTER 4 PM. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN HIGHEST FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 THIS EVENING AND WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR
THIS REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION. DESPITE THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM...THE MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WE HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED...WITH THE HI-RES ARW/NMM
SHOWING A FASTER SOLUTION AND THE NAM12 REMAINING SLOWER. THE
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
MODELS... APPEARS REASONABLE AND WE HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED IT/S
SOLUTION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS MOST FAVORED FOR AREAS EAST OF A
KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 2
INCHES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CARRIZO SPRINGS TO HALLETTSVILLE
LINE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION NEAR THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN AND REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...BUT TIMING OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES IS DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE. FOR NOW...WE/LL
LIMIT THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL DATA
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  64  85  55  79 /  20  70  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  95  62  84  51  80 /  20  70  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     96  65  86  53  83 /  20  60  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            94  60  83  51  80 /  40  60  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  66  87  60  83 /  10  10  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  60  84  52  80 /  20  70  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  64  89  53  85 /  20  40  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        95  64  85  53  81 /  20  60  -   -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  68  83  55  80 /  20  70  -   -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       96  67  86  56  83 /  20  60  -   -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  68  88  57  84 /  20  50  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24





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