Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 010218 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
918 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
DUE TO HEATING IN PLACE...TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AS OF 9
PM...ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. REST OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SPREADS OVER MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...
PM CONVECTION IS SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST...BUT EARLIER DID
PRODUCE SOME DECENT OUTFLOW. ALL THIS PM CONVECTION WILL DWINDLE
AS THE SUN GOES DOWN WITH A LOT OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. TAFS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET THIS CYCLE AS MOISTURE THAT GAVE A
SCATTERING OF CONVECTION TODAY WILL PUSH FARTHER WEST BY
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SH/TS IN
AUS/SAT/SSF...BUT DID INPUT A VCTS FOR DRT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH
PLOTS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND AND WITH
MAINLY EAST AND NE FLOW FROM THE SFC UP TO 300 MB...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT N/NE WINDS
TONIGHT...BECOMING A BIT MORE EAST ON SATURDAY. I DONT THINK THERE
WAS ENOUGH RAIN AT ANY OF THE SITES TO PROMOTE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT BUT MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WITH AREAS THAT HAVE
DAMP GROUND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

UPDATE...
HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN AROUND 100 TO 108 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
PUSHING AWAY FROM THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA BUT HEADING TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE HEADING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO PRODUCING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING STRIKES.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ON A SOUTHWEST GENERAL
DIRECTION ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH. HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THEY WILL CONTINUE AT THOSE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES AND LAVACA COUNTIES THROUGH
6 PM.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
INTERACTED WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES THAT ROTATED TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST AND LAY ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS DRIER AIR WITH PWS OF 1.2
TO 1.6 INCHES CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF I-35 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER EDWARDS AND VAL VERDE
COUNTIES. THE RAINS WILL END BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD TO THE WEST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS WITH PWS OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES CONTINUE AS WELL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR SUNDAY WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND BELOW NORMAL
MOISTURE LEVELS. SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL WILL REACH 100 FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE OTHER
CLIMATE SITES ADD TO THEIR TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77 101  77 101  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74 100  72 100  74 /  10  10  -   -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 100  73 101  75 /  10  10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  98  74  99  75 /  10  10  -   -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  78 /  20  30  10  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  98  74  99  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75 100  73 100  74 /  20  10  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  73 101  75 /  10  10  -   -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74 100  74 100  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  77 100  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77 101  75 101  76 /  20  10  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



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