Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 281707 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A GROUP OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MVFR CATEGORY EXTENDS E TO W FROM KSFF
TO KUVA TO EAST OF KDRT. THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR JUST BEFORE THE 18Z TAFS TAKE EFFECT.
THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 12Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SCATTERED DECK AT ABOUT 6 TO 8
KFT TUESDAY MORNING WHILE 06Z FORECAST CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
LOWERING CIGS AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A RAGGED DECK OF STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR-DAWN HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. CIG BASES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LOW END OF MVFR...BUT COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR BEFORE LIFTING/BREAKING OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 13-14Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT ALL SITES. SE-SLY WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 103 WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DRIER TODAY AND WE SHOULD MIX OUT MORE
TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 DEGREES EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE AND A
HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED TODAY.

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS PLACES THE CENTRAL CONUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THIS REGION
FOR TUESDAY. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
A LINE FROM BURNET TO AUSTIN TO HALLETTSVILLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS REGION.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN STRENGTHENING NORTH OF COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
RESPONSE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN...SENDING THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT WILL FORCE
THE COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL SHOW INCREASING
POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DURING THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE TAKING SHAPE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD BRING THE FRONT BACK TO
THE NORTH. RATHER...THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE FRONT TO STALL
ACROSS OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.3 INCHES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COULD SEE A
DECENT PERIOD OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40 PERCENT
POPS ON DAY 5/6 AND THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SOLUTION.

THE LAST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL
HAVE POPS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNDAY. IT IS A BIT TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE EXACT FRONTAL
POSITION AND OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME AREAS COULD GET BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AND OTHERS MAY GET TOO MUCH THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AGAIN...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE...SO STAY UP TO
DATE AS TIME PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  75  99  74 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100  73  99  71 100 /  -   20  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  72  99  71  99 /  -   10  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  73  96  72  99 /  10  20  30  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           99  79 101  77 102 /  -    0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  75  97  73  99 /  10  20  30  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             98  73  99  71 100 /  -    0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  72  99  71 100 /  -   10  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  76  98  74  97 /  10  20  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       97  76  98  75  99 /  -    0  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  74  99  73 100 /   0   0  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




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