Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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028
FXUS64 KEWX 251952
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
252 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Showers and thunderstorms were developing in the Coastal Plains
counties as of 230PM. Visible satellite imagery depicts an area of
instability from the I-35 corridor eastward. RAP mesoanalysis
depicts this area at 25-35 kJ/kg of SBCAPE, better PWATs, and 850
mb weak moisture convection. Hi-res models only hang on to this
convection through 23-00Z and quickly dissipates everything by
nightfall. Did increase afternoon PoPs to reflect current
convection.

Tomorrow`s forecast looks to be similar to today`s however
convection could push a bit farther west, perhaps reaching the
escarpment in the afternoon hours. A gulf TUTT low will very
slowly migrate westward and be positioned just off the Galveston
Bay. This will serve to focus lifting and further advect deep
moisture into the CWA moving into Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The aforementioned TUTT low will continue to inch westward onshore
an increase PoP chances by Sunday. Models currently do not
generate QPF that raises any eyebrows, likely due to the weak
nature of the TUTT. However, PWATs will gradually increase to back
over 2 inches in the east Sunday afternoon and while widespread
heavy rain doesn`t look likely at the moment...locally heavy rain
will be a possibility each day through most of the week. And if
multiple days/rounds of heavy rain impact the same areas in the
east, could see some isolated spots seeing 2-4 inches of rain
through next Friday.

By late in the week, the main upper ridge broadens and drier air
filters back into the region. Likely raising highs and lowering
PoP chances by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  90  73  90  73 /  10  30  10  40  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  10  40  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  90  72  90  72 /  10  30  10  40  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  89  72  89  71 /  10  30  10  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  94  74  94  74 /  10  10  -   20  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  90  72  89  72 /  10  30  10  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             73  92  72  91  72 /  -   20  -   20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  90  72  89  72 /  20  30  10  40  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  90  74  89  74 /  20  40  10  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  91  73  90  73 /  10  20  10  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75  92  74  92  74 /  10  20  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway



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