Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 191156 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014


.AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




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