Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 221133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS THOUGH MAINLY SCT-BKN...EXCEPT VFR ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING LIFTING
TO FEW-SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS BY LATE MORNING. STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS LIFTS TO
FEW-SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. S TO SE
WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TODAY DECREASES TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASES TO 10 TO 15 KTS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12





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