Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 241142
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
542 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD...
Isolated TSRA will be possible through much of the first 6 hours of
the TAF period. The isolated nature of these storms will make it
difficult to have any confidence in direct impacts to any terminals,
so included VCTS in the TAF for the I-35 terminals. Additionally,
breezy overnight winds have kept BR from lowering visibility
substantially beyond MVFR.

CIGs currently range from LIFR at KDRT to upper end IFR for the I-35
sites. While some fluctuations are expected with TSRA in the
vicinity, believe this will be maintained until the cold front comes
through this afternoon. Then VFR conditions are expected to prevail
after frontal passage.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A disturbance aloft is generating elevated showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor early this
morning. This activity will continue northeast through the remainder
of the morning. In addition, isolated streamer showers beneath the
inversion will persist through the morning across the far eastern
CWA. This afternoon a Pacific cold front will move into the Hill
Country and Rio Grande. Coverage of showers and isolated storms
should decrease this afternoon, with the exception of the northeast
CWA, as low level flow ahead of the front veers southwest as well as
the main forcing lifts northeast of the CWA with the aforementioned
upper level disturbance.

The cold front will push through the remainder of the CWA this
evening. Mid level moisture and disturbances aloft, as well as
850mb flow across the southeastern CWA turning back to the south,
will keep a chance of elevated showers and storms in the forecast
overnight across the southern CWA and along and east of I-35 on
Sunday. Cooler Sunday, especially eastern areas which may struggle
into the low 60s remaining under the cloud cover most of the day.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Clearing Sunday night with warmer and dry conditions across the
region on Monday afternoon. A warm front works back north into the
area late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Should see patchy fog
and drizzle developing into Tuesday morning along with isolated to
scattered showers Tuesday afternoon.

An upper level trough will be digging into the desert Southwest
Tuesday night and lift northeast on Wednesday. Ahead of it, models
have been keying in on a disturbance in the southwest flow aloft
generating chances for showers and storms Tuesday night across the
western CWA and into the Hill Country, then spreading northeast into
portions of the I-35 corridor on Wednesday.

Another cold front is advertised late Wednesday night. The ECMWF,
which has shown poorer run to run consistency, is deeper and more
potent with the accompanying upper level system, while the GFS is
more progressive and passes the main mid and upper level forcing just
north of the CWA. The 00Z Canadian has trended toward the GFS. Due
to the lower confidence at this time will forecast low chance PoPs
for Wednesday night. This front will be another Pacific cold front,
so only slight cooler but drier Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  49  65  47  74 /  60  10  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  49  65  40  72 /  60  10  30  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  51  64  44  73 /  50  20  30  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  45  65  41  71 /  60   0  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  47  74  44  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  45  64  41  72 /  60   0  20  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             78  50  68  41  75 /  40  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  50  64  44  72 /  50  10  30  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  52  62  48  72 /  50  30  60  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  51  65  46  73 /  40  20  30  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  53  66  46  74 /  40  20  30  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...TB3
Synoptic/Grids...Runyen


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