Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 181154 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
654 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs will continue for the I-35 terminals until roughly 15Z.
Elsewhere, some clouds are developing along the Rio Grande near DRT,
but cloud bases will remain VFR. South to southeast winds will
continue through today and should become gusty for the late afternoon
and early evening. Low clouds will likely develop once again early
Saturday morning and bring another round of MVFR cigs to the I-35
sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Very little to mention in the short term forecast as high pressure
continues to dominate the region. The stagnant air mass over the
region will provide very little variation in forecast Max T, Min T,
PoP/Wx among other variables. Max T values should be about a degree
or two above yesterday`s highs and with slightly lower dewpoints,
which should keep heat indices at bay and prevent another heat
advisory issuance.

Saturday should be more of the same as the GFS20/ECMWF/Canadian all
indicate a 593 high centered directly over South Central Texas.
Nearly identical Max T`s are expected Saturday as today.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The long term period focuses around a TUTT low pushing west across
the Gulf of Mexico and approaching the southeast Texas coast by
Tuesday morning. This will shift the H5 pattern, moving the 593 dm
high center to the northwest. The TUTT could bring some low end PoP
chances with it as this slightly disrupts the very stable pattern as
of late. ECMWF solutions are overly bullish on QPF production, at
least with the 00Z run. Taking a closer look at euro ensemble
spreads, a conservative approach appears to be the best course of
action with PoP/QPF as a significant standard deviation exists in the
ensemble guidance. Thus, do not have more than a slight chance PoP
mention through mid week next week.

Once the TUTT low shifts farther west into the Rio Grande Plains and
the Big Bend region, a more favorable moisture flux vector may allow
for some better shots at rainfall late Thursday night into Friday
morning.

The arrival of this weak H5 disturbance mid week should also help to
bring max temps down a couple degrees with some increased cloud cover
and decreased thicknesses.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  77 100  77 100 /   0   0  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  76 100  75  99 /   0   0  -    0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  75  99  75  99 /   0   0  -    0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            96  74  97  74  96 /   0   0  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  78 102  78 101 /   0  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport            101  74 101  74 101 /  -    0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  75 100  75  99 /   0   0  -    0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional  100  76 100  76 100 /  10   0  10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  76  99  76  99 /   0   0  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  76  98  76  98 /  -    0  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...TB3



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