Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 280556
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1256 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

IFR conditions are on the precipice of KAUS as of 05:50Z and will
shift in from the east within the next half hour. The low IFR
stratus deck will move into KSAT/KSSF within the by 07Z. Some
patchy areas of LIFR could also occur through 14Z. Low cigs will
continue through the morning hours with some periodic drops in
visibilities down to 2-3SM at times at KAUS. Will need to watch
for lower visibilities at KSAT but KAUS has received much more
rainfall and has greater low-lvl moisture for localized fog
development. New guidance is suggesting this cloud deck could reach
all the way to KDRT by 10Z and linger through mid-morning. Have
placed MVFR conditions in KDRT near 09-10Z through 17Z.

VFR will return to all sites by late morning Saturday as winds
remain out of the southeast near 10 KT. Isolated to scattered
TSRA is appearing my more likely Saturday afternoon across west
and central areas of south-central Texas. This could impact KDRT
to KSAT/KSSF. Will continue to monitor trends if VCTS or direct
weather mention is warranted based on confidence and expected
coverage potential.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Sent out the expiration of the Flash Flood Watch for the remaining
counties. With convection continuing across Lavaca and Dewitt
County, upped the PoPs in this location through 02z. Airmass has
become more stable behind the boundary farther to the north and
removed the 20 pops across some areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Have cancelled flash flood watch for all areas, except Fayette and
Lavaca counties where heavy rains continued.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Surface boundary from earlier showers and thunderstorms continues
to drift to the southwest and extends from Harper to New Braunfels
to Schulenburg. A surface dryline extends from Harper to Carrizo
Springs. Drier air aloft is spreading east of the surface dryline
making for more stable air along the I-35 corridor. The cluster of
showers and thunderstorms has shifted to the east as the drier air
filters in and is now over Fayette and Lavaca counties. Heavy rain
and additional flooding can be expected in these areas for the
next couple of hours or so. River and stream flooding persists
northwest of this cluster. Will maintain Flash Flood Watch until
expiration at 6 PM CDT. Cannot rule a shower or thunderstorm east
of the dryline this evening. An upper level trough moves away from
Texas and along with drier air aloft makes for a lull in rains
overnight. Deeper moisture returns to all areas on Saturday due to
stronger southeasterly lower level flow. Showers and thunderstorms
will redevelop with the best chances over the Rio Grande Plains
into the Edwards Plateau. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible with the cluster and Saturday afternoon into evening due
moderate CAPE and shear.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A series of upper level impulses will move across the southern
tier of states. A moist and unstable airmass lingers over our area
due to a persistent southeasterly lower flow off the Gulf of
Mexico. As a result, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through Friday. Higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms return for mid to late week as an upper level low
and a surface boundary develop over Texas with deeper moisture.
This may bring a threat for heavy rains and flooding. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              89  73  88  71  86 /  30  20  20  20  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  74  87  71  86 /  30  20  20  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  73  88  71  87 /  30  20  20  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            89  72  86  70  84 /  30  20  30  30  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  74  90  72  88 /  40  40  30  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  73  86  70  85 /  30  20  20  30  40
Hondo Muni Airport             91  74  89  71  87 /  30  20  20  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        89  73  87  71  86 /  30  20  20  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  75  88  73  87 /  30  10  20  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  75  88  72  86 /  30  20  20  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           91  75  89  73  88 /  30  20  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks



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