Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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174
FXUS64 KEWX 010540
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL
SITES BETWEEN AROUND 10Z AND 12Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SOMETIME
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS STARTING
AT 20Z AT DRT AND AFTER 00Z AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. TSRA SHOULD
REDUCE VIS...BUT NOT AFFECT CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NORTHERLY WINDS
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE SOME WEAK EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST...
WE/LL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO PLEASANTON LINE. ON SUNDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS...WITH NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WE EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GIVEN STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. DAYTIME HEATING AND
ADDITIONAL LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE COULD
SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION... WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WE
EXPECT A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY...
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE STILL
EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE
MENTIONED PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW...WE/LL SHOW A
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE
AND SPREAD EASTWARD JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  60  72  56  75 /  20  50  40  20  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  61  73  56  75 /  20  50  40  20  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  63  73  57  76 /  30  50  50  20  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  57  70  53  73 /  20  50  40  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  61  72  57  78 /  20  60  40  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  71  54  73 /  20  50  40  20  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  64  74  56  78 /  20  50  40  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        80  62  73  56  75 /  30  50  40  20  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  64  75  58  75 /  40  60  50  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       81  63  72  57  76 /  20  50  40  20  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  65  74  59  77 /  20  50  40  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN



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