Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 302327
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
727 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered over the region through Tuesday,
with dry conditions and warm temperatures. As the high moves to
the east on Wednesday, chances for precipitation will increase,
with a cold front moving into the region on Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A cold front is located downstream of the ILN forecast area, with
a broad area of surface high pressure centered over the lower Ohio
Valley. The ILN CWA is in a regime of northwesterly flow on the
northeastern periphery of this high, but any cold advection has
been countered by the drier air mass and a day of near-full sun,
resulting in temperatures in the lower to mid 80s across the
region.

As the high shifts to the northeast into southern Michigan
tonight, winds will become light and variable, and skies are
expected to remain mostly clear. These conditions are rather
favorable for radiational cooling. SREF plumes suggest a mean for
min temps tonight closer to the mid 60s, but the favorable
conditions and some other raw model output would suggest slightly
lower values. Thus, forecasted min temps tonight will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As surface high pressure shifts into Ontario, weak wind flow over
the Ohio Valley will turn to the east, with the pressure gradient
gradually increasing by late Tuesday night. Southwest flow aloft
will become a little more pronounced, but the relatively dry air
mass in the low levels will remain in place, leaving just some
upstream cirrus and scattered cumulus during the afternoon. The
air mass will change very little from Monday to Tuesday, but
another day of sun will allow for max temps to rise by a few
degrees (mid to upper 80s).

The quiet conditions will continue into Tuesday night, with min
temps around 60 degrees, and mostly clear conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mid level trough is still advertised to move from the northern and
central Plains to the Great Lakes Region Wednesday into Thursday.
Most of the region will squeeze out one more dry day on Wednesday as
high pressure moves off to the east. There could be enough moisture
and diurnal instability late in the day on Wednesday for a low
chance of showers/storms far west. As the mid level trough moves
through the Great Lakes on Thursday, an associated cold front at the
surface will push into the region as well. More substantial timing
differences are starting to arise in terms of high fast the front
will move southeast through our region Thursday into Friday as the
boundary becomes more parallel with the mid level flow. Have opted
for continuity which allows for the slow push of the front Thursday
into Thursday night and a gradual movement south of the Ohio River
on Friday. Have kept an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday, with decreasing chances
Thursday night into Friday.

For the upcoming weekend and into early next week, the upper level
pattern will transition to a broad long wave trough over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure on Saturday will give
way to a weak disturbance Saturday night into Sunday. Have kept a
low chance of showers and storms with this system. In a northwest
flow pattern aloft, we may be between systems on Monday. It should
be noted that models tend to not handle the timing of northwest
moving systems. In either case, have kept Monday dry for now.

The warmest temperatures this week should be on Wednesday, with mid
to upper 80s forecast. Cooler readings with highs mostly in the 70s
are expected Friday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will keep mainly VFR conditions across the TAFs for
the forecast period. The exception will be at KLUK, but more about that
in a second.

Any remaining cu should finishing dissipating this evening. Some
ci lifting up from the MS valley, but should remain scattered
overnight. Expect river valley fog to affect KLUK again tonight,
with IFR vsbys possible between 09-11Z.

Cu is expected to develop again tomorrow on the NE winds. By
afternoon, have the cu developing into a VFR cig across the wrn
TAFs, but the cu should break up quickly towards 23Z Tue.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Night
into Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Sites



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