Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 280739
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley this morning will
offering a continued chance of showers. High pressure will build
in for the middle of the week, providing dry weather. Another low
pressure system will bring additional chances for rain Thursday
and Friday. High pressure will bring with it dry conditions for
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level shortwave trof over Indiana to weaken as it tracks
east through the Ohio Valley this morning. Latest radar mosaic
shows band of rain showers across portions of western and
central Ohio. This pcpn is associated with an axis of 925 mb
convergence ahead of the mid level trof. This favorable forcing
will pivot southeast through ILN/s FA this morning into the
afternoon offering a continued chance of showers. Clouds will
hang on through the day with mild highs from the upper 50s
northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Amplified mid/upper level flow pattern to dominate at mid week.
Upper level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on
Wednesday ahead of next upper level low developing over the
central plains.

Surface high pressure will build southeast through the Great
Lakes overnight. Moisture in the low level will hang on through
most of tonight with only some partial clearing expected in the
north. Lows tonight to range from the upper 30s north to the mid
40s south.

With mid level ridge building over the region expect to see
a decrease in clouds Wednesday morning. This will be followed by
an increase in high level clouds late in the day. Temperatures
will be a little above normal with highs Wednesday ranging from
the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper air pattern will feature a broad ridge to start. The upper
ridge will be invaded by a couple of potent upper lows traveling on
a westerly flow, triggering surface low development, and resulting
in rounds of precipitation.

Dry weather under high pressure to start Wednesday night will come
to an end Thursday when surface low pressure is forecast to track
east toward the area, pushed by a closed upper low. As lift and
moisture arrive on the southerly flow ahead of the system, rain
showers will become likely by Thursday evening, with thunderstorms
possible in an environment containing marginal instability. Kept
categorical pops for Thursday night when the low is forecast to be
centered over Indiana, placing the ILN area in the most favorable
location for widespread precip. Showers are expected to persist
Friday as the low progresses to West virginia.

High pressure is expected to provide dry weather Saturday and
Sunday. The next low is forecast to arrive Monday with a large swath
of moisture, producing the likelihood for showers and a few
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be above normal for the bulk of the period. Highs
mainly in the 60s in warm advection Thursday and Friday will be
followed by near normal upper 50s Saturday under modest cold
advection. Highs will be boosted back up into the 60s Sunday and
Monday by warm advection ahead of the second low.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface low over southern Indiana to track east through the
Ohio Valley this morning. Showers associated with this feature
will push across the TAF sites through the morning.

As the low moves through, CIGS and vsbys will drop into MVFR
category in the showers and then a period of IFR CIGS. CIGS
will gradually improve through the morning with MVFR conditions
persisting into the afternoon hours.

Variable winds will become north up to 10 kts this morning and
continue through the day.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will persist into Tuesday night. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into Friday evening.
MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR



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