Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 240852
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
452 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...MOIST...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INTERACT
WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS POKES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SOME MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THINNING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSIDENCE. IT WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH IT CAN MIX ALONG WITH A DRYING
GROUND FROM LACK OF MOISTURE THIS MONTH...THERE COULD BE A FEW
UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A COMBINATION OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SYNOPTIC
MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
THEREAFTER...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS HAVE BEEN USED.

FOR TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST LATE. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A RETURN FLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET POKING MORE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE PROSPECTS FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD STAY TO OUR WEST IN LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

ON MONDAY...A S/WV AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST TO
PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VLY WHILE THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO NUDGE SLOWLY EAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
PIVOTING ACRS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LACK OF STRONG LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
SCATTERED WITH POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN. IN FACT...SOME WIND GUSTS ACRS OUR NW ZONES
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE WHILE IN THE SOUTHEAST
THEY WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH. AM NOT LOOKING FOR SVR WX...HOWEVER...
WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD EXHIBIT
SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE GUSTS. WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...S/WV AND LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO SRN
ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST THAT POPS WILL DECREASE ACRS THE NRN/WRN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REMAINING ACRS THE
ERN/SERN ZONES.

FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER S/WV WILL PIVOT NE FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH
SHOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY
BY LATER IN THE DAY. SPC HAS THE SW PART OF THE CWFA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH A MARGINAL RISK OUT SIDE OF THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACH LOW END
MODERATE...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE EXHIBITING
TALL SKIN CAPE PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE LACKING GIVEN
SKINNY CAPE IN THE -10 C TO -30 C RANGE. IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE
INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS...THEN THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DROPPING HEAVY RAIN BUT SINCE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY QUICK...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD BE LOW. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE S/WV PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND FORCING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK S/WV WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EAST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN PERSISTING THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SITES
THROUGH 14Z WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW OR CALM CONDITIONS. WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND COUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10KTS THRU THE DAY AND WILL
HAVE A GUST COMPONENT IN THE AFTN WITH DRY AIR ALLOWING GOOD
MIXING. SCT-BKN MID DECK WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SITES DURING THIS
TIME BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS TO BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN AND
DECREASE THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z. EXPECT SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AND CIRRUS
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...BINAU





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