Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 070633
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
233 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME THICKER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF
THE FA WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO WORK
INTO THE AREA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG
IT. 12Z MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF
THESE WAVES. BUT NONETHELESS EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT STARTS TO
RETROGRADE. FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
SOME VESTIGE OF IT COULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY WHICH WOULD SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH A LOW INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

LOWS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL START
OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN WARM ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND ONLY TO
START DROPPING BACK ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST SWRLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHUD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOP. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED MENTION OF FOG TO SOME PATCHY
BR WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EARLY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND PUSH DOWN INTO
OHIO TONIGHT. EXPECT MODERATE INSTBY TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN
WITH SCTD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE A MENTION
OF VCTS AND THEN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD
FOR CONVECTION...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HAVE PREVAILING RAIN WITH VCTS THIS EVENING AND MVFR CIGS.

WINDS FROM THE SW WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.