Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 170833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
333 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Moisture associated with low pressure and a cold front will
affect the area today. Drier weather is forecast Wednesday into
Thursday as high pressure moves in behind the cold front. Another
low pressure system will bring showers back into the region late
Thursday through Friday.


1005 mb low pressure will travel across southern Michigan to
Ontario, dragging a cold front across the ILN area. Widespread
showers that have developed in the moist ascent ahead of the front
will diminish in coverage by late morning as somewhat drier air
circulates around the low. Kept a slight chance for thunder in a
regime of marginal elevated instability. Rainfall amounts around a
half an inch will be possible before the showers dwindle.

After a mild start with readings in the 50s ahead of the front,
cooler temperatures will start to filter in on a west wind this
afternoon. Breezy conditions are indicated in the tight pressure
gradient surrounding the front, with gusts over 20 mph expected.


Surface high pressure will be moving into the mid Mississippi
Valley tonight while low pressure moves slowly through southeast
Canada. At the same time, low pressure in the upper atmosphere
will travel from southern Lake Michigan to northwest Ohio, keeping
a chance of showers in the forecast.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry weather
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Dry conditions will persist into
Thursday when the high is forecast to move to the Appalachians.
The next area of low pressure will be arriving from the southwest
later on Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and a chance of
showers to southern locations by Thursday evening.

Temperatures will remain above normal. Highs Wednesday will be
reduced into the 40s by cold advection. A rebound to near 50 will
occur Thursday due to warm advection in advance of the next low.


High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail
through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it
pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio
Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in
the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into
Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much
above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper
low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then
turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot
rule out a bit of thunder as well.


Mid level shortwave and associated sfc low over the mid MS valley
to eject northeast across the Great Lakes today. This will allow
southward trailing cold front to sweep east across all TAF sites
from midday through early this afternoon. Expect CIGS and VSBYS
to drop through MVFR into IFR category by morning.

Wave of rain overspreading the TAF sites associated with embedded
s/w and a strengthening 45-50 knot low level jet. Some marginal
elevated instability will work into the Ohio valley toward sunrise,
so a few thunderstorms are not out of the question. Due to limited
coverage have limited mention to VCTS at KCVG/KLUK.

Due to low level jet, low level wind shear will also be possible
overnight but this appears marginal at best so have left out the
mention of LLWS. Rain showers will continue into the morning
until a cold front pushes east across the area. Expect MVFR CIGS
to persist through the forecast period.

In the wake of the front, winds will veer to the west and gust up
to 22 kts this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through
Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday
afternoon through Saturday.




NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
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