Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 061658
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1158 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY OFF TO
THE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED SE OF THE FA. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY
AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN THIS CLOUD
COVER AS IT DOES MOVE EAST. HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHORT WAVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY WILL
HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HOW FAST MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED UP INTO OUR AREA
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND
CMC ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...DEVELOPING PCPN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM ARE
SLOWER...BRINGING THE BEST MOISTURE/FORCING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW FOR
CHANCE POPS TO DEVELOP WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. CAA WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT
ALL RAIN...SO WILL JUST ALLOW FOR A MIX TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PRE
DAWN HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR BEGIN TO DROP OFF SOME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY AND THE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN CONTINUED CAA...PCPN SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE
COLD AIR MOVES IN AND ITS AFFECT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.
FOR NOW WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY TO LESS THAN AN INCH
AND PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN IN
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ALSO GET INTO A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER AIR ARRIVES MORE IN EARNEST BY TUESDAY WITH DISTURBANCES
BRINGING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BUT
MINOR ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE THE RULE. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
FINALLY GET PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THURSDAY. SOME INDICATION OF A
DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL KEEP BENIGN WEATHER IN FOR NOW WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY EXPECT JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW LOWER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...NOVAK


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