Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 311426
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1026 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

The morning fog has dissipated across the area so updated the HWO
and zones to remove the fog wording. In terms of precipitation
this afternoon, the latest HRRR/CONSSHORT models keeps any
showers north of the Mountain Parkway so nudged pops towards
CONSSHORT solution. Also freshened up the hourly sky and
temperature grids to reflect most recent obs. Sent updates to NDFD
and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

A cold front remains draped across central Indiana and northern
Ohio as of 6am this morning. This has resulted in mostly cloudy
conditions across these states, though little in the way of precip
is ongoing at this time. Still expecting that as we head into the
day, the cold front will slowly drop southward and interact with
daytime heating to produce some more widespread cloud cover and
precip chances, especially across the northern portion of the
CWA.

As for now, forecast seems to be in pretty good shape with valley
fog and only a few passing cirrus clouds. Otherwise conditions are
calm. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term
forecast for temps, dew points, and winds was in line with current
conditions. All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web.
No changes to the forecast package are needed at this time,
however one will be needed to remove fog wording later in the
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Conditions remain calm and clear as of 3am, with high pressure still
in general control of eastern KY. A weak cold front is currently
slowly pushing southeast across central IN and north central OH.
Most of the convection along this frontal boundary has deteriorated
with loss of daytime heating, though a swath of clouds remains just
northeast of the CWA. This frontal boundary will slowly push farther
south throughout the day, reaching the Ohio River by 21Z. This will
allow some clouds to make it into the region, mainly across the
northwest half. Afternoon heating may also spark some more showers
and thunderstorms, but most scattered activity will remain north of
I-64 closer to the best lift along the frontal boundary.

The cold front will continue on its slow southward path across the
state tonight and into Thursday morning. This will keep isolated to
scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
overnight and into the morning tomorrow, with chances lingering in
the higher terrain throughout the day due to upslope flow and closer
proximity to the exiting system. Overall, there is a lack of
moisture with this system, so QPF amounts will be unimpressive.
Winds will actually become more NWrly today ahead of the frontal
passage, and will remain northerly after its passage as well. This
will work to pull in much cooler air into the region, especially
post frontal when the pull of northerly air will be deeper. While
temperatures today will remain in the upper 80s to around 90, post-
frontal temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 70s to
around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

The models remain in good agreement aloft through the long term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a dampening trough moving
through the northeast section of the nation Friday into Saturday.
There are some differences with the handling of T.D. 9 progged to
come out of the Southeast United States and back into the
Atlantic early Saturday, but it should have little impact on the
weather over Kentucky. Some weak energy will be left behind over
the region Saturday as mid level ridging builds back over the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The energy, and somewhat lower
heights, will slip off to the southeast Sunday while the heights
increase over our area. The ridge takes hold over Kentucky to
start the new work week, peaking toward the end of the forecast
period over the Deep South. Given the good model agreement, a
blended solutions looks to be a good starting point for the
extended portion of the forecast.

Sensible weather will feature a pleasant couple of days heading
into the Labor Day weekend as dry and cool high pressure brings a
welcomed change of air mass to the area. However, this high does
move off to the east by Monday allowing warmer and increasingly
humid air to return to Kentucky. Even so, the building heat and
moisture will likely not be enough to trigger any convection
through rest of the forecast. Accordingly, the forecast was kept
dry with late summer heat and humidity spreading back into the
region for the latter part of the Labor Day weekend and into the
middle of next week.

Did make some minor adjustments to the temperatures each night
to account for ridge and valley differences. Also fine tuned the
Sky grids to build in more of a diurnal curve to the coverage
during the late afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

A cold front remains draped across central Indiana and northern
Ohio as of 6am this morning. This has resulted in mostly cloudy
conditions across these states, though little in the way of precip
is ongoing at this time. Still expecting that as we head into the
day, the cold front will slowly drop southward toward the Ohio
River and interact with daytime heating to produce some more
widespread cloud cover and isolated to scattered precip chances,
especially across the northern portion of the CWA, though
conditions should remain VFR. Went ahead and left in VCTS for
late this afternoon and into the overnight to account for any
thunderstorm activity, though more than likely it will be more
isolated in nature at most sites. Cigs may lower to MVFR late in
the period as the actual front nears. Winds should remain light,
generally less than 5kts.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW


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