Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 301900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRETTY AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING AND PRECIP
COVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF COURSE...IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED COVERAGE
THIS EVENING...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT PULL OFF TO THE
EAST. THE ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO OVER 2
INCHES AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAX
READINGS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL BASED
ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS ARE IN OK AGREEMENT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...BUT
DIFFERENCES EMERGE AROUND A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
AROUND MIDWEEK. THESE DIFFERENCES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS OR ENDS UP BY WEDNESDAY.
THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DIMINISHED BEYOND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS
IT LOOKS NOW...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A
DIURNAL TREND...PEAKING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A MINIMUM
OVERNIGHT.

STARTING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ON SUNDAY WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE AREA DRYING
OUT OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM. WE WILL PROBABLY JUST SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LOW. SAME WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MAY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH IF THE GFS IS CORRECT LATE IN THE
DAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT MAY
BE TIED MORE TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
TUESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE GFS TAKES THE BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF US AND WOULD SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. NO SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...BUT GIVEN THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN FORMING AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ALL DAY ON
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS. FOG SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF FOG.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





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