Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 020730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

PRESENTLY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. AN MCS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING HEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND
IS NOW MARCHING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...STRETCHING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. IR SATELLITE HAS
SHOWN SOME WARMING WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO...INDICATING THAT THIS MCS MAY ALREADY BE ON THE DECLINE. IN
FACT...THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A DYING MCS AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO THE BLUEGRASS SHORTLY AFTER 8 AM...BUT ANTICIPATE MORE
OF THE ACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...PLAN
TO BACK OFF THE POPS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64. OUTFLOW FROM THE DYING MCS WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD KICK START
THE CONVECTION AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY. THE FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GOOD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...A SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST AS THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUT
OUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN BY MID
EVENING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD WEAKENING
STORMS AFTER 6 PM. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STALL A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY AGAIN RAMPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A FEW MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS
PRESENT...SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH NO SEVERE
THREAT.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. SAME CAN BE SAID
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY AND COULD SPAWN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. PLAN TO
STICK WITH THE VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AS TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY ARE TOO
GREAT TO GO WITH A THUNDERSTORM PREVAILING GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS





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