Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 252000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LONG LIVED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CONVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTH
TO THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGIME AND ITS PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ONCE ACTIVITY
PEAKS THIS EVENING...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE PRECIP MOST
PLACES TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP AGAIN WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION ON SUNDAY. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
STORMS...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN KY/ REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS AND SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC COAST AND TRAVERSE THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. KY WILL GENERALLY FIND
ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING KEEPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR EAST. AS
SUCH...EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH KY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH EACH WAVE BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION.

EACH DAY...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH BEST ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO
PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4K J/KG
RANGE. AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE
WITH DECENT HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWAT VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER EACH DAY...SO ANY
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GENERATE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...OTHER THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
LIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS UNLESS MESOSCALE DRIVEN. AND LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...LEAVING LITTLE DRYING ALOFT FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT.
INSTEAD...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WERE
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. SHOWERS
WERE PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL KY. THE PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY EXPECTING MVFR IN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WIND SHOULD
DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON
TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO REDEVELOP
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL


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